Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[tavwtby]

38/22 now ..felt the first drop of something, we gon start an obs thread, or just post em here?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Obs thread . Start it sir 

[tunafish]

Feeling a @MaineJayhawkjack.  Maybe he fires it up.

[wx2fish]

Looks like the 18z euro juiced it up a little more 

[ORH_wxman]

I’ve been examining soundings a bit more and if there’s a bust potential at least here near the pike and into metrowest Boston region, it’s that snow would hang on longer….the warm layer is extremely elevated. It’s actually up around H7 and not even the usual “very high up” 725-750 level. NAM even has the warmest layer closer to 675mb….and it’s super thin. It stays like that for a few hours in the 08z to 11z timeframe. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Looks like the 18z euro juiced it up a little more 

Snow me the money 

[MaineJayhawk]

Obs thd

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’ve been examining soundings a bit more and if there’s a bust potential at least here near the pike and into metrowest Boston region, it’s that snow would hang on longer….the warm layer is extremely elevated. It’s actually up around H7 and not even the usual “very high up” 725-750 level. NAM even has the warmest layer closer to 675mb….and it’s super thin. It stays like that for a few hours in the 08z to 11z timeframe. 

Maybe some IP but lots of flakes below it? 

[wxeyeNH]

Wow for Dendriteland.  The 18Z run of the Euro was the juiciest run I have seen for up here.  1.31" with temps around 25F.  The Weatherbell Kuchera product has 16-17" for Mark, Brian and me.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe some IP but lots of flakes below it? 

Yeah or it could be the type of situation where we see the sleet line oscillate quite a bit…like we get duped into thinking it’s rocketing north and then it gets beaten back 10 or 20 miles at a time when good lift is doing its thing. 
 

I’ve noticed a lot of looks like this on the ptype maps because of how marginal it is…it can’t decide if it’s snow or not

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Radar looks somewhat fragmented right now 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Radar looks somewhat fragmented right now 

It should fill in a decent amount in the next 3-4 hours. 

[moneypitmike]

50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah or it could be the type of situation where we see the sleet line oscillate quite a bit…like we get duped into thinking it’s rocketing north and then it gets beaten back 10 or 20 miles at a time when good lift is doing its thing. 
 

I’ve noticed a lot of looks like this on the ptype maps because of how marginal it is…it can’t decide if it’s snow or not

 

 

 

I'd be much more comfortable if I lived 10 miles north of the Pike instead of my 2  That might be all the difference.

[moneypitmike]

HRRR looks a little warm.

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

HRRR looks a little warm.

Not at pitt2.......

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Not at pitt2.......

I've been spending much more time this winter contemplating how long until it's the one and only Pit.  Hopefuilly that'l be by winter 26-27  Not that I'm counting or anything.

[radarman]

22 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

I'd be much more comfortable if I lived 10 miles north of the Pike instead of my 2  That might be all the difference.

10 miles north of the Pike but still not comfortable.  Expecting 3 or 4" here, heavily compacted.

[dryslot]

22 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I've been spending much more time this winter contemplating how long until it's the one and only Pit.  Hopefuilly that'l be by winter 26-27  Not that I'm counting or anything.

Your counting.

[Roger Smith]

Would people agree with any of the following? 

During rapid coastal redevelopment, bands of very heavy rain could form over Long Island Sound and se MA, Cape and Islands, with winds ENE 50-80 mph at least in squalls. Frequent thunder likely.

Arctic front sags into n CT and between Salem and Boston, stalls out roughly s HFD-sPVD -BOS. This becomes focus of thunder-ice pellet sleet after midnight. Very windy also.

Heavy snow extends to within 10-15 miles of stalled arctic front and amounts generally 10-15" across most of MA and extreme northern CT. Some thunder with this snow also. Winds back to NE 30-50 mph.

Boston metro I think gets alternating periods of rain, sleet and snow, turning over to heavy snow after 0700h.

A notable feature of this storm will be extremely tight gradients. Could see things like 50F Newport and Fall River and 30F Providence 15F Worcester at same point in time (around 0300h). 

[mahk_webstah]

The radar looks great with the first thump band and then all that moisture feeding up from the lower mid Atlantic 

[wxsniss]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’ve been examining soundings a bit more and if there’s a bust potential at least here near the pike and into metrowest Boston region, it’s that snow would hang on longer….the warm layer is extremely elevated. It’s actually up around H7 and not even the usual “very high up” 725-750 level. NAM even has the warmest layer closer to 675mb….and it’s super thin. It stays like that for a few hours in the 08z to 11z timeframe. 

Cool, great detail... I'll show an example here for everyone...

7z-8z (2am-3am) looks to be some of the best lift in pike region... this off 18z NAM:

For times 9z-12z when multiple vendors show sleet is past pike, >0C temps in the column at KBOS off 18z NAM:

08z 666.70 -1.96

10z 723.60 -0.06 

11z 693.80 -0.26

12z 773.50 -1.26 / 748.20 0.84 / 721.00 1.24 / 692.20 -0.46

In other words, we could have 3-4 more hours of snow than depicted. At least will be curious to nowcast.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, wxsniss said:

Cool, great detail... I'll show an example for everyone here...

7z-8z (2am-3am) looks to be some of the best lift in pike region... this off 18z NAM:

For times 9z-12z when multiple vendors show sleet is past pike, >0C temps in the column at KBOS off 18z NAM:

08z 666.70 -1.96

10z 723.60 -0.06 

11z 693.80 -0.26

12z 773.50 -1.26 / 748.20 0.84 / 721.00 1.24 / 692.20 -0.46

In other words, we could have 3-4 more hours of snow than depicted. At least will be curious to nowcast.

It also could be the type of thing where it’s not 100% sleet. Like a sleet/snow mix at times. 
 

Either way it will be interesting to watch. The warm layer never really gets that warm N of pike. Some areas don’t get warmer than like +0.5C. So there is a small upside bust potential there. 

[qg_omega]

Thundersnow near Syracuse?

[NeonPeon]

Shattered dendrites and rain at the cliff walk in newport. Hope everyone gets a good event who can. 

[weathafella]

51 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Your counting.

I’ll turn 80 if I’m fortunate the first day of that met winter.  Weird to type that….

[UnitedWx]

46 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Thundersnow near Syracuse?

Thundersnow in Westfield!

[Torch Tiger]

On 3/2/2023 at 9:24 PM, Torch Tiger said:

wish we could have hyped this one up more for the disappointment angle..maybe next one.  Anyway, looks like 4-6" here

Awt

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Awt

Hope you suffered thru it ok 

[rimetree]

The nickel and dime winter has really turned into a penny winter. Don't think models did very well in their depiction for my area...maybe HRRR came the closest. Never got a good cold drain from Maine as we often see in these.