Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[dryslot]

With a 7.4°F dewpoint here, We will have some dry air that needs to saturate.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

With a 7.4°F dewpoint here, We will have some dry air that needs to saturate.

same here dews are low

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Any idea what BDL is?

I don’t have that easily-sorry 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

same here dews are low

16F near my house.  A bit dry

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

same here dews are low

It was cobolt blue skies earlier, Warm today and melted off that 3" that fell yesterday, 41°F, Its now overcast.

[8611Blizz]

Yeah that nws map probably means western section of metro Boston (EAst Arlington, West Medford and west Somerville probably do 3" and east Somerville, Charlestown do  1" maybe. 

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Any idea what BDL is?

Guessing around 34

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I don’t have that easily-sorry 

Looks like BDL current wetbulb is about 33.

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like BDL current wetbulb is about 33.

And BOS has dropped to 34 with a dp of 21.

[weatherwiz]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like BDL current wetbulb is about 33.

Actually...it might be somewhere around 35/36? but getting varying results based on equation used.

EDIT: just got 31 using the long ass equation with arctan. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I like Noyes' map...similar to mine.

[tamarack]

37 minutes ago, dryslot said:

puking sand

Not always bad - Jan '15 dumped 20" of that stuff on our driveway, 9:1 snow at single-digit temps.  (Not that the coming event bears any resemblance to that monster.)

[Damage In Tolland]

Wet bulbs are easy when you just get a home wx station. Should be pasty 

[wx2fish]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like Noyes' map...similar to mine.

Don't hate it either. If tomorrow's ccb stuff actually pans out I could see higher totals, but Ive been thinking 6-9" here. 

[78Blizzard]

1 hour ago, BostonWX said:

Pivotal NAM clown with 6-6.5 at BOS

Don't understand that, as it has 10" for me and I'm SW of BOS by about 12 miles.  The Sat PM stuff is about as much as the initial thump here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wet bulbs are easy when you just get a home wx station. Should be pasty 

Mine can't be far off....41.4/19.4

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Don't understand that, as it has 10" for me and I'm SW of BOS by about 12 miles.  The Sat PM stuff is about as much as the initial thump here.

Sell those numbers 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Don't hate it either. If tomorrow's ccb stuff actually pans out I could see higher totals, but Ive been thinking 6-9" here. 

Agree. 

[tavwtby]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

You want the best lift to line up with the snow growth zone (and be saturated). So on Paul’s sounding you see these bars sticking out horizontally from the left, those are omega bar which denote lift in the atmosphere….we want those to be at the same level as the SGZ but they were below the SGZ which means you’ll get crappier flakes. It does improve the next hour (as he showed in a later post). 

thanks Will, I've never really dug into how the sounding plots really work, suppose I should get into it, useful info.what determines where the DGZ is, is it always at the same level, or does it change based on the lift, and dynamics of the levels? sorry for the elementary questions, just trying to get a grip on what I see.

[OceanStWx]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wet bulbs are easy when you just get a home wx station. Should be pasty 

There are calculators online too. But if you want a general rule of thumb, add two to the dew for every degree you drop the temp.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

thanks Will, I've never really dug into how the sounding plots really work, suppose I should get into it, useful info.what determines where the DGZ is, is it always at the same level, or does it change based on the lift, and dynamics of the levels? sorry for the elementary questions, just trying to get a grip on what I see.

Soundings often provide an indication of whether the snowfall output and precip type algorithms are off of their rocker or not...because they often are. 

[Ginx snewx]

26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Actually...it might be somewhere around 35/36? but getting varying results based on equation used.

EDIT: just got 31 using the long ass equation with arctan. 

Lol there are online calculators 

[klw]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

18z HRRR had MVL ASOS with 0.53" QPF in 2-hours around 5-6am (0.27" and 0.26" hourly).  I'll believe that when I see it.

BTV comments on the rate in its new AFD:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Snow: A widespread 6-14" still looks great, with the lowest amounts
near the Canadian border. Eastern slopes of the southern Greens,
like Ludlow or Rochester, and parts of Essex County, New York, like
Keene, Elizabethtown, and Schroon have the best chance for 11-16".
This tracks with QPF values, which indicates about a 0.50"-0.75" of
liquid in the valleys, and 1.00-1.50" of liquid for favorable
eastern slopes. Ratios will likely be lower due to fragmentation of
dendrites, but do expect a slight increase during the day as the jet
weakens. On the other hand, the impact of a March sun angle will
likely keep SLR values a bit lower. Combined with the winds,
there could be some blowing snow early along western slopes, but
by mid-morning this should subside as north winds trend towards
5 to 10 mph. Snow will continue Saturday afternoon, but warming
temperatures will likely limit much accumulation and bring some
improved travel conditions.

Snowfall Rates: Will add a section to highlight the rates. The 12z
data rolling in has some impressive numbers that haven`t been seen
this winter. The time frame of heaviest snow is likely between 06z
(1 AM) and 12z (7AM) Saturday. Notable is that the eastern slopes
feature a greater than 50% chance of 1"/hr snowfall rates for about
6 hours, with a narrow window of 50% or greater of 2"/hr noted.
Based on some high res ensembles, it seems possible that eastern
slopes of the Adirondacks in Essex County, New York and parts
of the southern Greens may even approach 3"/hr snowfall rates in
that 06z to 12z Saturday window of time. After 12z, better
forcing moves east, and we should see a decline in snowfall
rates.

[rimetree]

Feeling good about the largest event of the season so far, and only need 5" to do it. Currently 40/28.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Expecting about an inch or less over to brief sleet to rain here.

 

Meh.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Lol there are online calculators 

yeah I used some and got the different results. The one with arctan yielded 31, there was another calculator which calculated it based on temp/RH and that was 35. 

Then the "third rule" was 36. 

But I think the arctan is more accurrate

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol there are online calculators 

You just picture him in a steady state of decline, in a dimly lit room sweating profusely though his Starter pullover Bruins jacket, surrounded by empty 40s.....just hammering away on a chalkboard the length of the room lol

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Expecting about an inch or less over to brief sleet to rain here.

 

Meh.

Must be nice to live in SNE.

Horrible winter down here

[BombsAway1288]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Would love to know what model the Wunderground app is mostly based on for their app snowfall algorithm.  Has me at 8-12 tonight and 3-5 tomorrow.    GFS ?

Wondering the same thing. Has me for 6” here. I’ll believe it when I see it.

It did do very well on Tuesday FWIW

[tavwtby]

meh for my area, nice SVT and north of ALY though, should cash nicely in up there