Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[SJonesWX]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure why he can't grasp that...you would think he could wrap his mind around that with two kids of his own.

he was tooo busy cleaning his truck to help his wife with diaper duty.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I never view the UK.

I don’t take it very seriously at all ..unless the euro agrees with it 

the SPC HREF model and WPC snow probs are very bullish looking for 8” 

They did both fail in ASH for Tuesday’s system. We just need that front end to produce 

[TalcottWx]

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

If only the 12z HRRR would verify here

 

Both Kuchie and 10:1 have 17" in the Hubb...

I love your location for this one.

[ORH_wxman]

Latest hrrr pounds N CT with warning criteria. Been trending toward bigger rates in that 03z-07z timeframe. 

[Modfan2]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Latest hrrr pounds N CT with warning criteria. Been trending toward bigger rates in that 03z-07z timeframe. 

Think I am still too far south for that, congrats Union, Woodstock, and Stafford 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Modfan2 said:

Think I am still to far south for that, congrats Union, Woodstock, and Stafford 

Even where I am, I’m not expecting warning criteria. But something to watch this afternoon on the trends for late this evening…latest rap is showing the increasing snows in CT/RI as well. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even where I am, I’m not expecting warning criteria. But something to watch this afternoon on the trends for late this evening…latest rap is showing the increasing snows in CT/RI as well. 

Here she comes . 
Good trends 

[CoastalWx]

Euro more paltry with front end.

[weathafella]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Euro more paltry with front end.

Euro was kind of meh all the way through the event tbh.

[Damage In Tolland]

Meso time

[dendrite]

Euro upping the QPF in NH

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Euro matches Ukie with the sorta 7-10 split with overnite thump... so that bears watching 

West central SNE CT/ RI gets a slug and then Vermont over to Central and S NH gets one . 

Leaves 128/495 meh 

Worth watching as you can see it hints of this on HRRR 

[MegaMike]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Thanks for the balanced convo but they do suck. I've been burned before.

I never said they were great as operational forecast models. I seldom use them, if at all. At this range, I'd prefer the NBM, HREF, and HRRR over almost anything else.

My point was, if you're going to disregard the WRF-ARW/2 because they're WRF models, you may as well disregard the WRF-NMM model (NAM), as well.

Regardless, WRF-ARW is fantastic for post-hoc analysis using reanalysis data.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro more paltry with front end.

Yeah opposite trend of what the short term mesos have been showing. Guess we’ll see who is right soon. 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro upping the QPF in NH

Pounds into SW ME too, That has been ticking north with these tics as well has me solidly in the 10-14" range after all the runs this morning, I still like the 8-12" area as this may be just below 10:1.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro upping the QPF in NH

Hopefully a few crushed chickens. 

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully a few crushed chickens. 

Running out of spots to put it. 

[tavwtby]

gonna be hard to overcome this warm antecedent airmass, we're close to 45 with now muted sun, but we'll see what happens, expectations not high with this one...

[tavwtby]

was just looking through some old pics with my son who's now 11, think it was the winter of 13-14, could have been the next year, but man did we have some massive man size snow piles on the side of the driveway, taller than I, with me and him trying to make an igloo, hopefully next year we can get back to that type of pack

[Connecticut Appleman]

3 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

gonna be hard to overcome this warm antecedent airmass, we're close to 45 with now muted sun, but we'll see what happens, expectations not high with this one...

Well we do have a little bit of DP to work with as it is currently 19 here, so if we can shed a few degrees before the precipitation starts, we might have a window to see some wintry stuff.

[8611Blizz]

Most stations here are 45+ now.  This will need to rip to accumulate on pavement here.

[powderfreak]

What a crushing on the Euro in the morning.

The HRRR concurs with 3-hr precip.  One hour it has like 0.30” water.

[powderfreak]

It is hot outside though, wow. Sunny and snow taking full March sunshine.  Though guess it’s only 34/10.  Feels hotter.

 

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Most stations here are 45+ now.  This will need to rip to accumulate on pavement here.

Wet bulb is 34-35 from BOS to BDL, so if it is +SN I don't worry about accumulation. If it stays 1SM, that's when it could be trouble.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, SJonesWX said:

he was tooo busy cleaning his truck to help his wife with diaper duty.

Maybe if he'd been more attentive with diapers, he wouldn't need to clean the truck?

[ORH_wxman]

21 minutes ago, Connecticut Appleman said:

Well we do have a little bit of DP to work with as it is currently 19 here, so if we can shed a few degrees before the precipitation starts, we might have a window to see some wintry stuff.

Wetbulb temp is like 31F at ORH and that’s with asos running a bit warm. 
 

I typically look at it this way….if there is going to be precip/snow worth really getting excited about, it’s going to wipe out that faux near-ground warm layer pretty quickly. If it can’t wipe it out, you weren’t missing much to begin with. Maybe you get 1-2” of glop instead of 3” of baking soda over 5 hours. But we were going to rip 6” in 5 hours, it’s mostly gonna happen even with the warmer sfc to start. You maybe lose a fraction on the front end, but otherwise dumping 0.15-0.20 per hour  in the bucket is gonna wipe out the BL very quickly. 

[ORH_wxman]

Oceanstwx beat me to it in a more efficient post. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wetbulb temp is like 31F at ORH and that’s with asos running a bit warm. 
 

I typically look at it this way….if there is going to be precip/snow worth really getting excited about, it’s going to wipe out that faux near-ground warm layer pretty quickly. If it can’t wipe it out, you weren’t missing much to begin with. Maybe you get 1-2” of glop instead of 3” of baking soda over 5 hours. But we were going to rip 6” in 5 hours, it’s mostly gonna happen even with the warmer sfc to start. You maybe lose a fraction on the front end, but otherwise dumping 0.15-0.20 per hour  in the bucket is gonna wipe out the BL very quickly. 

We go through this every March with needing to remind people that it can snow, despite warming to 47 degrees under early October sun. Think of it as the inverse of RAD cooling...if that is "fake" cold, then this is fake warmth.

[ORH_wxman]

30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Running out of spots to put it. 

Let’s collapse a few of those cages around the saplings. 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Pretty much set up here for this, After this mornings models, I think 8-12" is good,  Now its just seeing if the models get a CCB going sooner to enhance snowfall for this.

JGW!!!!