Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[dryslot]

[RDRY]

Right on the dividing line -- WWA in Lenox, WSW in Pittsfield.

[SJonesWX]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If I got anything close to that in Springfield I will go the entire summer without making a severe thread

oh how we pray

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

lol those 18z temps.

We are already at/above at 15z

 

Been to cold, It overdoes it often.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Stubborn GFS on that CCB. Still not buying it. 
 

 

The NAM's FOUS has that implicated

 

24064978517 05516 970937 46009800   24076995607 -2611 900203 51050400 ..E at 37 kts!
30037978622 -3520 940435 42009798   30001886004 -0118 973314 45040097 ..NE at 35 kts!
36010918128 -2824 073624 34999491 

 

By the way...also colder than the last run.  No interval is above 0C beneath 800 mb level...

Now...obviously the NAM likes to string hammocks and open the tiki bar at 725 whenever it can, so ...not sure about that elevated sleet column scenario.  But the QPF in the left columns is over an inch. 

just some offering this -

[MegaMike]

Let's be nice to the big, beautiful WRF models (which do have a cold bias). 

The NAM is WRF w/a Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamic core (WRF-NMM). 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/weather-climate-models/north-american-mesoscale

[jbenedet]

7 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Let's be nice to the big, beautiful WRF models (which do have a cold bias). 

The NAM is WRF w/a Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamic core (WRF-NMM). 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/weather-climate-models/north-american-mesoscale

Thanks for the balanced convo but they do suck. I've been burned before.

[weathafella]

I was asked for the 6z euro sv snow maps-but asking me anything that early won't get a quick response-although I did get up at 10:30 this morning.  Here they are....

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I was asked for the 6z euro sv snow maps-but asking me anything that early won't get a quick response-although I did get up at 10:30 this morning.  Here they are....

 

 

The day is almost over 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The day is almost over 

lol....I'll likely be up till 2:30-3am ish.   I'll see if anything is coming down and wake up when it's over?

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

lol....I'll likely be up till 2:30-3am ish.   I'll see if anything is coming down and wake up when it's over?

His night will be over by 7 pm.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

His night will be over by 7 pm.

I’m getting up about an hour after he goes to sleep 

[weathafella]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The day is almost over 

For many 6 year olds that is correct....

[ORH_wxman]

41 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Been to cold, It overdoes it often.

Dewpoints are really what we want to look at. It’s the wetbulb temps that matter not the sfc temps at noontime in March sunshine in an unsaturated column. 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Dewpoints are really what we want to look at. It’s the wetbulb temps that matter not the sfc temps at noontime in March sunshine in an unsaturated column. 

True

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m getting up about an hour after he goes to sleep 

I think most of us get the same amount of sleep, Its just at different hours.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I think most of us get the same amount of sleep, Its just at different hours.

Not Ray.. dude sleeps like an hour every other day writing blogs and looking at models . Walks around in zombie state 

[Ginx snewx]

Now that's a CCB 50DBZ Tippy blue bomb

[dryslot]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not Ray.. dude sleeps like an hour every other day writing blogs and looking at models . Walks around in zombie state 

He's slinging dirty diapers as well so has reason to be up too.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Cmc held serve 

Ukie ticked north (see the trend )  . QPF map sorta gave Merrimack valley 7-10 split thru 12z but that can easily be noise , but not much falls inside 495 in Essex 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

He's slinging dirty diapers as well so has reason to be up too.

I'm not sure why he can't grasp that...you would think he could wrap his mind around that with two kids of his own.

[Great Snow 1717]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Cmc held serve 

Ukie ticked north (see the trend )  says hey Essex county you are screwgied . 

Essex County translates into "Screwed" in numerous languages..

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure why he can't grasp that...you would think he could wrap his mind around that with two kids of his own.

Yeah, He should, My wife's had a daycare in our home for 33yrs and i see dirty diapers daily lol.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Essex County translates into "Screwed" in numerous languages..

Seemed primarily related to the thump missing overnite and then sorta cruddy BL temps when precip got going after 7am , seemed flukey relating to first part 

[dryslot]

Pretty much set up here for this, After this mornings models, I think 8-12" is good,  Now its just seeing if the models get a CCB going sooner to enhance snowfall for this.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, He should, My wife's had a daycare in our home for 33yrs and i see dirty diapers daily lol.

I'm out of work right now to help with the baby...will be back to normal mid week, next week.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, He should, My wife's had a daycare in our home for 33yrs and i see dirty diapers daily lol.

Don’t blame the daycare on that.

[MaineJayhawk]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Don’t blame the daycare on that.

Depends

 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm out of work right now to help with the baby...will be back to normal mid week, next week.

I changed my share of them back in the day 30 yrs ago.....lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Seemed primarily related to the thump missing overnite and then sorta cruddy BL temps when precip got going after 7am , seemed flukey relating to first part 

I never view the UK.