Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[ineedsnow]

going to be close here but i think we can pull off atleast 6 or so

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

going to be close here but i think we can pull off atleast 6 or so

50th percentile eh?

I think you do get a decent thump there

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

going to be close here but i think we can pull off atleast 6 or so

You guys are solid. Jelly.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

you can see the E flow effect on QPF over S monads , N orh hills and E slope . As usual these are you Jack spots in this airmass .

This is going to be a fun storm in Nashua . I don’t see more than 6” here at 200’

i’d guess ratios are going to be overdone and lead to higher forecast amounts in CP north of pike than what falls  . Maybe we “rip” for a couple hours but that will be the exception more than the norm . 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

50th percentile eh?

I think you do get a decent thump there

We've been burned before...

4-8 in his/my hood seems safe        Not getting cocky

[CoastalWx]

You guys in the hills on rt 2, the DGZ dries out near 12z so thumpy is done, but erly flow 850 and below should allow lighter snows at least. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Southern Maine gets ripped on the 3K  Wow

[KTBFFH1905]

Our forecast of 1-6" is pretty entertaining on the weather apps. No other industry could give such a broad spread of uncertainty. Our town has already cancelled all events tomorrow 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

WTF    

Just getting ripped at 9 AM

[ineedsnow]

lol 12z FV3  gets alot of SNE good but pretty sure that runs cold 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

lol 12z FV3  gets alot of SNE good but pretty sure that runs cold 

Known cold bias on that model. 

[OceanStWx]

8 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

*If*. But how many hours of heavy snow? 

 

Lacking a Bufkit point for DAW, I think MHT it a good proxy for you. Rips between 06-12z (probably close to 1"/hr), then lulls followed by lighter inverted trof snow the rest of the day.

[HoarfrostHubb]

If only the 12z HRRR would verify here

 

Both Kuchie and 10:1 have 17" in the Hubb...

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just getting ripped at 9 AM

Look at those bottles lmao. 

[CoastalWx]

All the WRFs and FV3 are just dumb. Many times too cold. Tossed.

[NorEastermass128]

BOX map aligns with my thoughts. 0-1”. Another turd in the punch bowl. Congrats inland folks though. 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

If only the 12z HRRR would verify here

Let's call that an upper bound solution. 

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr looks a little north.

awesome.

 

[Cold Miser]

58 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

This will verify.

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Lacking a Bufkit point for DAW, I think MHT it a good proxy for you. Rips between 06-12z (probably close to 1"/hr), then lulls followed by lighter inverted trof snow the rest of the day.

Yea that's kinda what I'm worried about IMBY (dover). The heaviest comes on strong east winds; temps 33-34. That light stuff won't add up until evening, as BL takes time to cool. Wind is backing but diurnal max and lack of cold nearby. 

To be sure DAW is 10 miles to my NW, and it makes a *huge* difference in events like this. 

[Modfan2]

1 minute ago, Cold Miser said:

This will verify.

Embrace it!

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Southern Maine gets ripped on the 3K  Wow

Meso's are really banging up here, I have not looked yet at anything but i'm assuming there's a CCB that gets going as well as maybe an IVT.

[Cold Miser]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Judas cocked?

 

lol.  Who is this guy?

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Meso's are really banging up here, I have not looked yet at anything but i'm assuming there's a CCB that gets going as well as maybe an IVT.

A little more CCB now, I think the trof is more Currier and Ives mood setting than anything else.

If you look at the 250 winds, the trailing jet streak it's a little less progressive today than it was yesterday or the day before, so the CCB gets going sooner.

I would really like to see an event with a DGZ below 500 mb though.

[MJO812]

With all the complaining in the thread, Boston has a chance to reach average after this month.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

25 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

We've been burned before...

4-8 in his/my hood seems safe        Not getting cocky

4-8” is a big difference in terms of impact.

I’m planning on 3-5” in Greenfield, maybe some sleet to top it all off. 

[NorEastermass128]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

With all the complaining in the thread, Boston has a chance to reach average after this month.

Boston averages 48”. They sit at 11.5”. The rug has been pulled on us a few times already. Little has gone right or broke our way. The complaining is 100% warranted. 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

A little more CCB now, I think the trof is more Currier and Ives mood setting than anything else.

If you look at the 250 winds, the trailing jet streak it's a little less progressive today than it was yesterday or the day before, so the CCB gets going sooner.

I would really like to see an event with a DGZ below 500 mb though.

Classic SWFE with the DGZ way up high. If only we actually had some nice low level arctic air then the baking powder would accumulate way easier. This year has been putrid for lowest levels. Even in events where 925 is like -5 or -6, I’ve had several times where it translates to 33F here when probably at least half the time or even more we’d be inverted and even colder at the sfc…not this season though. 

[Ginx snewx]

[dryslot]

12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

A little more CCB now, I think the trof is more Currier and Ives mood setting than anything else.

If you look at the 250 winds, the trailing jet streak it's a little less progressive today than it was yesterday or the day before, so the CCB gets going sooner.

I would really like to see an event with a DGZ below 500 mb though.

Yeah, Like around 700mb, I figured it had to be a CCB, Just looking briefly at the 12k Nam at the surface you could see it as the low is deepening just east of LI to ACK moving ENE it drops 6mb and was down to 988mb.