Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[CoastalWx]

Maybe a hair warmer? Noise really. More reason to toss the GFS.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM looks about the same to me. Maybe a little stronger with secondary. 

Ya , no tickle south 

I didn’t realize the 6z already tickled as much 

[jbenedet]

15 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

isn't that simply because winds stayed up?  I mean are the 850s off significantly?  Most will wetbulb and the storm comes in at night.

Not sure.  But I'm strongly inclined to say "yes" given it's not a local discrepancy, but region wide.

Regarding wet bulbing - I'm focused on the eastern zones; and BL temps I believe is main issue. I believe surface temps will stay stubbornly high over night. There isn't low level CAD; winds easterly will cause dews to rise sharply out ahead of the precip.

You guys in the interior are fine; plenty cold. 

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Not sure.  But I'm strongly inclined to say "yes" given it's not a local discrepancy, but region wide.

Regarding wet bulbing - I'm focused on the eastern zones; and BL temps I believe is main issue. I believe surface temps will stay stubbornly high over night. There isn't low level CAD; winds easterly will cause dews to rise sharply out ahead of the precip.

You guys in the interior are fine; plenty cold. 

GYX likes your area.

[tiger_deF]

Here in Boston I'd be thrilled if we get over two inches of accumulation. This entire winter has had snow gone in a couple days thanks to back-end rain or sleet.

I'm already onto the next system. If the EPS is any indication, this could be the strongest system since Jan 2022 of last year (with a 1993 or 1978 ceiling).

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yeah... the coast is toast other than a few hours of thumpy... 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

GYX likes your area.

His area looks good.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, tiger_deF said:

Here in Boston I'd be thrilled if we get over two inches of accumulation. This entire winter has had snow gone in a couple days thanks to back-end rain or sleet.

I'm already onto the next system. If the EPS is any indication, this could be the strongest system since Jan 2022 of last year (with a 1993 or 1978 ceiling).

2-3 maybe. Perhaps a little more in the aftn should that materialize. 

[jbenedet]

Snow is falling but it probably aint stackin. SE NH/ Northeast MA.

 

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

His area looks good.

What is good? I think there's a sharp gradient where things really ramp - DAW -->west 

[NorEastermass128]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Snow is falling but it probably aint stackin. SE NH/ Northeast MA.

 

Story of winter 22-23. Better luck next season. 

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

His area looks good.

Pope Pummeler? 

[wx2fish]

Nam is pretty good tomorrow in eastern Rockingham into SW ME

[HoarfrostHubb]

Newest BOX map if you hadn't seen it yet.  Not much change

 

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Snow is falling but it probably aint stackin. SE NH/ Northeast MA.

 

If it's ripping heavy snow it will accumulate. But we did knock down ratios to below 10:1 in that area to account for some loss in depth to warm boundary layer.

[CoastalWx]

Congrats Dave again.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3k nam maybe juicy 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Pope Pummeler? 

At least the LLJ looks nasty here in the aftn.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Congrats Dave again.

ratios maybe rough outside elevations In SNE  . CT had a better airmass for Their thump earlier this week 

[dryslot]

Nam slays

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

GYX likes your area.

There's an IVT-ish feature that sets up overhead, looks like towards the end. But that move through at diurnal max, and I don't see cold on the back side of this. Areas not far from me, 10 miles, to the north/west will see a lot more. I think I'm gonna see a lot of snow falling from the sky but it's not gonna pile up here due to 32-34 temps throughout.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

At least the LLJ looks nasty here in the aftn.

At least it will be roaring easterlies above the treetops instead of roaring southeasterlies. 

[CoastalWx]

12z 3K looked better than 6z.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

At least it will be roaring easterlies above the treetops instead of roaring southeasterlies. 

NAM's 06z was 08 over Logan at mid BL, and going N from there... just sayn'

[Damage In Tolland]

Judas cocked?

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3k nam stacking up the snow , I don’t buy it at 10:1 outside elevations but looks nice 

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

If it's ripping heavy snow it will accumulate. But we did knock down ratios to below 10:1 in that area to account for some loss in depth to warm boundary layer.

*If*. But how many hours of heavy snow? 

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Judas cocked?

 

 

WTF    

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

NAM's 06z was 08 over Logan at mid BL, and going N from there... just sayn'

Logan is probably toast for hours. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Judas cocked?

 

Sudden stratospheric warming