Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[Typhoon Tip]

Gosh... you guys are a needling reasons to not accept this as a decent event.

I guess truth be told, it's impossible to remove the humanity from the "geo physical equations" that proceed the modeling of any event ... Still, I'd just caution, needling for any plausibility that sides with the most direst of indicators, is just as unseemly an application of bias.

It's clear some kind of defensive blah blah blah, must be motivating that tact.

I'm still going ... 80/20  in favor of the GFS, with the 20% sort of a consensus of other tools.

For as purposeful as those 'plausible' anything in this may seem, I don't see them as compelling reasons to assume an "optimistic" result is unlikely. 

I warned...btw way ... not to allow past winter's shenanigans dictate one's perception when we started this thread.  And that seems to be failing - imho... just observing this practice.

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I def wouldn’t be forecasting much accumulation after the initial thump. If mesos start honking today, maybe we consider it, but I’m going to assume QPF is way overdone in the CCB portion of the system. I might feel ok about it in parts of far S ME or something. 

Even that from part doesn’t seem like a true wall of precip on some guidance. I really want to see a good solid shield of echoes moves in.

[Typhoon Tip]

Although, within that framework ... I then am willing to correct downward the GFS 15 to 19" snow totals.   But the 20% modulation in probably helps that... 

I think 10 to perhaps lollypop 12" will be the maxes.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Gosh... you guys are a needling reasons to not accept this as a decent event.

I guess truth be told, it's impossible to remove the humanity from the "geo physical equations" that proceed the modeling of any event ... Still, I'd just caution, needling for any plausibility that sides with the most direst of indicators, is just as unseemly an application of bias.

It's clear some kind of defensive blah blah blah, must be motivating that tact.

I'm still going ... 80/20  in favor of the GFS, with the 20% sort of a consensus of other tools.

For as purposeful as those 'plausible' anything in this may seem, I don't see them as compelling reasons to assume an "optimistic" result is unlikely. 

I warned...btw way ... not to allow past winter's shenanigans dictate one's perception when we started this thread.  And that seems to be failing - imho... just observing this practice.

Well I guess location matters. For here, I don’t see a reason to be gung ho. The airmass sucks, it’s going to warm aloft, and slot moves in fairly quick. 

[CoastalWx]

Hrrr looks a little north.

[DomNH]

33 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is going to be brutally ugly I think. I'd still be extremely skeptical with these QPF outputs, especially on such a widespread level.

Soundings look like shit too. This is 06z GFS for 12z tomorrow here. Bone dry in the DGZ. I'm guessing we're getting at a shredded radar look plus crap snow growth. We'll see what the mesos do but I'm thinking there will be a lot of disappointed weenies tomorrow with 3-5'' of sand then a slot and 33F by 10 am. 

 

[CoastalWx]

Low goes over far SE Ma lol.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Low goes over far SE Ma lol.

[wx2fish]

That's a pretty violent finish for SNH on the hrrr. Well see what the other mesos look like 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Soundings look like shit too. This is 06z GFS for 12z tomorrow here. Bone dry in the DGZ. I'm guessing we're getting at a shredded radar look plus crap snow growth. We'll see what the mesos do but I'm thinking there will be a lot of disappointed weenies tomorrow with 3-5'' of sand then a slot and 33F by 10 am. 

 

Agreed...this has been a bit problem is a quite a bit of dry air to contend with. I think the airmass is even drier then Monday's. It's going to take some time to really saturate I think. 

Also, the storm ingests a ton of dry air from the southwest. Looping RH at 500/700 is pretty uneasy looking. Sure, where you're lift is stronger and ulvl divergence is greater you'll offset this some, but we're playing with time here.

[NorEastermass128]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Low goes over far SE Ma lol.

Ray just threw his computer out the window. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

Ray just threw his computer out the window. 

The sleet will pad the landing 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Low goes over far SE Ma lol.

“Kids don’t bother daddy later today , it’s gonna rain again and well ..you know ..daddy likes snow and apparently torturing himself “

[SouthCoastMA]

Maybe weathafella can post a StormVista snow map of the 6z Euro for a quick fix. It's better than the real thing

[George001]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Low goes over far SE Ma lol.

Way north, and the crazy thing is the hrrr has a south and cold bias at this range. It may end up even more north than that.

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

All guidance too cold this morning.

NAM best,

EURO next

GFS worst

 

isn't that simply because winds stayed up?  I mean are the 850s off significantly?  Most will wetbulb and the storm comes in at night.

[wx2fish]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed...this has been a bit problem is a quite a bit of dry air to contend with. I think the airmass is even drier then Monday's. It's going to take some time to really saturate I think. 

Also, the storm ingests a ton of dry air from the southwest. Looping RH at 500/700 is pretty uneasy looking. Sure, where you're lift is stronger and ulvl divergence is greater you'll offset this some, but we're playing with time here.

Soundings for SNH are well below freezing through the column on the hrrr. My guess is the sleet coloring on the maps is showing up from a dry dgz with lower level lift. Could just end up crap flakes vs sleet, but there is a ton of dry air aloft. 

[mahk_webstah]

57 minutes ago, dryslot said:

6-10" and call it a day.

I'll take that and up you 2" on the lollies.

[Henry's Weather]

11 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Hah! Incredible

[George001]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

All guidance too cold this morning.

NAM best,

EURO next

GFS worst

 

For what it’s worth, last night I saw a rabbit. That is making me lean more north/less snow for my area. 

[Kitz Craver]

This thing has been a shit show to track

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Soundings for SNH are well below freezing through the column on the hrrr. My guess is the sleet coloring on the maps is showing up from a dry dgz with lower level lift. Could just end up crap flakes vs sleet, but there is a ton of dry air aloft. 

It’s def because of that. You see the sleet line jump like 60-75 miles in one hour, lol. It’s prob when the DGZ starts to dry out a bit but in reality that will still be snow assuming it is correct thermally. 

[ROOSTA]

Devils in the details. It's a juicy system. QPF settling between .75-1.00" 
I would still expect in a foot in the climo favored areas (where tainting doesn't take place) hills outside of 495.
A spread (SREF) of 2-12" with the mean around 6-10" in the forementioned areas.  

Going to be fun watching how this all shakes out. Big model runs forthcoming.

[Snowcrazed71]

6 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

This thing has been a shit show to track

It sure has. And I'm still not sure if we're going to see anything better than what's predicted. The weather guys here in CT seem to think it will switch over to rain even where I am west of Hartford. But some of the model show it's staying frozen through out the event. It'll be fun to track

[WeatherHappens]

I'll be happy with seeing some snow

[ORH_wxman]

I’m prob going 3-5” here. Thump has been looking a little better but doubt we get much more beyond that and I’m giving most of the 10 to 1 guidance on the thump a 20-30% haircut. 
 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Nammy south tickle ?

[UnitedWx]

I don't care if I just have a few inches of snow followed by hours of sleet... just give me the winter weather and I'll be happy

[Typhoon Tip]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well I guess location matters. For here, I don’t see a reason to be gung ho. The airmass sucks, it’s going to warm aloft, and slot moves in fairly quick. 

oh well.. yeah. sorry Scott - right.

I mean at a regional scope.

In the context of imby, if one is located 10 mile NW of the Bourne Bridge or whatever, they're not likely to get the same realization as ORH. Lol... which in turn isn't getting the same thing as Keene, NH either..

 

[CoastalWx]

NAM looks about the same to me. Maybe a little stronger with secondary.