Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Canadian looks a few tics north 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Canadian is A tickle NW

also a 10-15% QPF haircut for Emass to NH border 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Canadian is A tickle NW

Looks less impressive larger scale too. QPF took like a 15-20% haircut across the board 

[ORH_wxman]

Maybe a slight touch NW…but it actually has better front end snows into central CT than the 12z run did and it trimmed QPF on the northern fringe. Timing was slower too. 
 

I feel like outside of the NAM’s noticeable S tick, the rest of guidance so far has been mostly noise whether it went a smidge south (rgem/icon) or a hair north (gfs and GGEM)

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe a slight touch NW…but it actually has better front end snows into central CT than the 12z run did and it trimmed QPF on the northern fringe. Timing was slower too. 
 

I feel like outside of the NAM’s noticeable S tick, the rest of guidance so far has been mostly noise whether it went a smidge south (rgem/icon) or a hair north (gfs and GGEM)

I don’t see the euro budging more than a tickle at 0z (from 18z) and I could see thump and CCB changes having bigger clown map impacts than any track change 

[weathafella]

Uncle taking some alka seltzer in time for the midnight show.

[weathafella]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’m Almost certain he will tickle north from 12z when we was on a bender 

His qpf maps look like he barfed all over them.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Uncle taking some alka seltzer in time for the midnight show.

Maybe pivotal maps will work this time 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I mean if you look at 12z Ukie 850 track it was A south Outlier . It was actually south of the 0z Gfs 850 track 

The gfs track isn’t really that much of an outlier at all anymore , it’s just the crazy CCB that is giving it the huge totals

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I don’t see the euro budging more than a tickle at 0z (from 18z) and I could see thump and CCB changes having bigger clown map impacts than any track change 

Yeah I’ll be intrigued if euro tries to go CCB…but for now I’m treating it as a GFS mirage. I think it likely mostly slides offshore to our northeast (maybe sideswiped by it in northeast areas into coastal Maine)….but the front end stuff I think is where we could potentially find improvements between now and go time…if only because of the non-hostile layout to our north. Like I told scooter…it’s not amazing like a 12/16/07 setup but it’s enough that some cooler ticks on the front end (even if track doesn’t change much) are certainly possible. 

[78Blizzard]

GFS cut back QPF here by almost 1/3 from 18z.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Tonight’s guidance has me pretty confident for 4”+ here. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks less impressive larger scale too. QPF took like a 15-20% haircut across the board 

I've been saying since Monday that would happen....double digit totals will be few and far between.

[weathafella]

10 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

GFS cut back QPF here by almost 1/3 from 18z.

Considering 18z insane totals that is actually less than expected 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Considering 18z insane totals that is actually less than expected 

it was literally the same QPF for NE mass  1.60 under CCB 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

it was literally the same QPF for NE mass  1.60

Sell

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Sell

My point is it didn’t lessen and If the poster is in Westwood ma he had 1.4 qpf in both runs 

 

[78Blizzard]

15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

My point is it didn’t lessen and If the poster is in Westwood ma he had 1.4 qpf in both runs 

 

Check again, the 18z had 1.99.

[WxWatcher007]

Not feeling this one. Went with mostly rain in far S CT, a C-2 zone for most of central CT, and a 1-3 zone in far northern CT. Sleet should be fun for a bit in interior CT. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

25 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Check again, the 18z had 1.99.

Ahh ok I was looking at COD model page and it actually has different Totals .
 

Interesting , on pivotal my area looks to have bumped from 1.5 to 1.7 in ASH but I’m not buying it

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Ukie was Actually the south outlier Coming in and ticked N and looks almost identical to 0z gfs track . Pretty good consensus forming on global track

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm already bored of this system...think my ceiling is about 8-9".

[weathafella]

Euro stable from 18z.  Pretty narrow goalposts now. 

[wxsniss]

Yeah any changes within noise

[wxsniss]

One important takeaway: did not do the GFS-style CCB

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm already bored of this system...think my ceiling is about 8-9".

That’s still a good appetizer for what’s to come. 

[wxsniss]

Also drier, cut QPF by ~30% compared to 18z run

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Euro was a carbon copy of 12z w track but another QPF cut as ray was warning  . Annoying . MSLP was the same or even 1mb Lower at 18z sat 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s still a good appetizer for what’s to come. 

Hopefully but this winter.......maybe wishful thinking.....but hopefully

[wxsniss]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Euro was a carbon copy of 12z w track but another QPF cut as ray was warning  

Echoes of prior Monday's system... decaying dynamics, though this one has a much more robust starting point