Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s college hoops season 

Blows.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, dryslot said:

Blows.

The Maine Bears ?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Gonna hang the gfs on the wall of shame. 

King of queens?

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Gonna hang the gfs on the wall of shame. 

The GFS may actually end up not performing that well overall with this and not just talking about locally. I guess it also depends on what metrics you're evaluating, but the GFS has always been fast with everything. It was fast with the convection moving across the south and fast with timing of everything into the OV and Northeast. NAM was always slower with everything.

[dryslot]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

The Maine Bears ?

Hoops in general, 4th on my list.

[ROOSTA]

Close to the height of the storm:
Red line is marked as 6" snow depth.



Are the graphics improving? 
Enjoy writing thermal profiles- SFC,925,850,700, all kinds of variables. No need to pay for overpriced sites!

[WxWatcher007]

Wait a minute, we’re punting the GFS to Jupiter because of the 00z HRRR and a yet to be run NAM? 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Wait a minute, we’re punting the GFS to Jupiter because of the 00z HRRR and a yet to be run NAM? 

It’s clear the gfs is too far south imo. 

[CoastalWx]

Hrrr is a hell of a thump though.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s clear the gfs is too far south imo. 

Pattern persistence.  

[weatherwiz]

0z NAM early on and its so much slower with everything so far.Barely has the line getting into Memphis by 12z now

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

0z NAM early on and its so much slower with everything so far.Barely has the line getting into Memphis by 12z now

It will make a couple tics south this run.

[wx2fish]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

0z NAM early on and its so much slower with everything so far.Barely has the line getting into Memphis by 12z now

Even if sniffed something out here, loop the last 3-5 runs for around ORD. Absolutely brutal performance 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr is a hell of a thump though.

I think up along RT 2 we get a few good hours of snow and then a lot of sleet.  
i’m thinking 3-5” in Greenfield and then hours of pellets.  Probably 5-7” for Dave and elevations. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, dryslot said:

It will make a couple tics south this run.

when you say it’s going south during play by play , we can take that to the bank 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

It will make a couple tics south this run.

I see that too 

[CoastalWx]

At least I get the western eyewall on HRRR.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

Even if sniffed something out here, loop the last 3-5 runs for around ORD. Absolutely brutal performance 

Terrible...i was shocked to see ORD in a WSW when I woke up. That's one market I have to forecast for and looking at data today there was still no consistency or confidence. 

[wxsniss]

Just catching up on day...

Have to increasingly weigh NAM 

For it's remarkable consistency, this would be one of GFS's worst performances if it's wrong.

PBP on 0z: ULL definitely a tick southeast

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s clear the gfs is too far south imo. 

I honestly don’t have much of a read on the guidance here in CT. I suppose I lean warmer, but I’m not really endorsing either model camp extreme. 

Very small ticks here are the difference between rain and sleet accumulation.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

when you say it’s going south during play by play , we can take that to the bank 

Ha don't take that to the bank, I may of had a pop or two  lol

[Chris12WX]

I was told the GFS was the best!

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Ha don't take that to the bank, I may of had a pop or two  lol

Cmon man !!!

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Chris12WX said:

I was told the GFS was the best!

It depends on the run and what its spitting out in terms of snowfall. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

It depends on the run and what its spitting out in terms of snowfall. 

Do you have a clown map?    

[powderfreak]

Jeez that mix is north in Upstate NY.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

It will be a little south 

[DomNH]

NAM is so slow. Doesn’t bring precip into SNE until after 06z.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Do you have a clown map?    

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, DomNH said:

NAM is so slow. Doesn’t bring precip into SNE until after 06z.

It’s still faster than 18z nam if you compare 9z sat am panels and a shade faster w secondary development and primary is a little SE on 0z