Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks familiar, mic drop....

 

43 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

BOX upping the totals for some area's but not buying much improvement for the coastal area.

Welcome to late Mon night/early Tues AM, BOX.

[moneypitmike]

42 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

BOX upping the totals for some area's but not buying much improvement for the coastal area.

 

There's something liberating about not being able to look at anything all day and just fast-forward to the last two pages of new posts to catch all you need to now

I'm happy to see BOX has me in a 6-8.  Not sure if'll play out that way but nice to nee nonetheless

[Massplow]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Welcome to early Tues AM, BOX.

Are you still thinking the same idea as your first call map

[78Blizzard]

Plenty of bust potential in that BOX map.  Just let the NAM's next run trend toward the GFS and they'll be scrambling to update.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Massplow said:

Are you still thinking the same idea as your first call map

Gonna fine tune the ranges a bit and get more region specific. Don't expect wholesale changes.

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

There's something liberating about not being able to look at anything all day and just fast-forward to the last two pages of new posts to catch all you need to now

I'm happy to see BOX has me in a 6-8.  Not sure if'll play out that way but nice to nee nonetheless

I’m thinking closer to 3-4” of kitchen sink crud for us. We’ve seen that a few times already this year. Just can’t buy an optimal look. 
 

Maybe we can get one last push south and finally catch a break but I’m skeptical. I feel like a bump north of more likely than south. At least it will cover the sun torched areas again which opened up today. 

[dryslot]

WFO's not buying the GFS? I'm sure there getting some weight.

[qg_omega]

Just now, dryslot said:

WFO's not buying the GFS? I'm sure there getting some weight.

NAM FTW in these situations with an advancing warm nose at 700mb

[78Blizzard]

The problem for the GFS is that it can only be downhill for it after that last run.  It won't get any better than that for many.  It has been steadfast for 3 days now, so I think changes should be mostly noise this close in.

I have railed on it this winter for showing us favorable outcomes at day 6 that disappeared by go time.  But if it does it now at day 1-2, then what good is it?

 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

NAM FTW in these situations with an advancing warm nose at 700mb

It cant be discounted no matter if it fits your palate.

[George001]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

It cant be discounted no matter if it fits your palate.

Yep, the NAM being that far north this close in is a red flag. It could be wrong yeah, but it’s very much a possible outcome. The other models may not be picking up the convection as well as the NAM is. 

[dryslot]

18z Euro is not backing down, More amped then 12z actually.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yep, the NAM being that far north this close in is a red flag. It could be wrong yeah, but it’s very much a possible outcome. The other models may not be picking up the convection as well as the NAM is. 

Seasonal trend in affect.

[weathafella]

Definitely worse for the pike region but the h7 closing off just east of the elbow may enhance ccb possibility Saturday?  Dicey to say the least.   I think Ray’s map looks good at this point.

[NorEastermass128]

Not feeling this one for the coast. In a good winter, I’d hedge snowy. This winter, maybe we’ll break into some sunshine mid storm. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Definitely worse for the pike region but the h7 closing off just east of the elbow may enhance ccb possibility Saturday?  Dicey to say the least.   I think Ray’s map looks good at this point.

Gonna need 00z to come back south or i’d place the O/U for eastern pike region at 3” with less right on the coast. 
 

NAM is tossed imho…but that doesn’t mean small north ticks aren’t real. I’m expecting them. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Not expecting much here. 
 

32.00000000000001 rain 

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

18z Euro is not backing down, More amped then 12z actually.

The QPF differences are wild.

[weatherwiz]

If NAM is poo poo I'm really liking this area for max potential

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gonna need 00z to come back south or i’d place the O/U for eastern pike region at 3” with less right on the coast. 
 

NAM is tossed imho…but that doesn’t mean small north ticks aren’t real. I’m expecting them. 

What are your thoughts south of 90?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

If NAM is poo poo I'm really liking this area for max potential

GFS prob too far south. NAM way too amped. Somewhere in the middle with a 70/30 weighting toward GFS is prob what I’d forecast right now if I had to issue one. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

The QPF differences are wild.

GFS gets the CCB going over eastern areas where the euro is more just overunning as you don't get the mids closing off in time.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

GFS prob too far south. NAM way too amped. Somewhere in the middle with a 70/30 weighting toward GFS is prob what I’d forecast right now if I had to issue one. 

That sounds extremely reasonable, great way to go

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What are your thoughts south of 90?

Maybe an inch or two and then sleet. Maybe a brief period of ZR before rain/dryslot. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe an inch or two and then sleet. Maybe a brief period of ZR before rain/dryslot. 

So you think torch above freezing ? I’m not sure I agree 

[CoastalWx]

Definitely not what I was hoping for, but not surprised. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Definitely not what I was hoping for, but not surprised. 

Enjoy the rain, it’s the only rain you got.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So you think torch above freezing ?

I wouldn’t call it a torch but lack of good source of low dews prob means you go to 34 and rain eventually. You may pelt for a decent while though first. 

[weatherwiz]

Well looks like a low is blossoming. Now that it's actually occurring this should get ingested into the 0z models so hopefully that will help reduce alot of the uncertainty. Not just for our region but for the northern Ohio Valley...what a brutal pain of a forecast there

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Enjoy the rain, it’s the only rain you got.

I’ve been conservative all along so no issue here. Although I’m wondering of 2-4 is too high.