Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Nearby.  The beautiful area of Burrilville RI.  Sorta like Appalachia.   
She is actually in FL right now but her son is at home 

Weenie snow belt. They will do better than me for sure.

[SouthCoastMA]

The RGEM looks a hair worse to me on the front end. 18z starting off on wrong foot

[FXWX]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Think we had heavy rates later than you

Yep...

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

The RGEM looks a hair worse to me on the front end. 18z starting off on wrong foot

It was sorta gonzo on its last run

[FXWX]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Part of me would silently enjoy, if it absolutely crushed all the other guidance, and ended up perfectly right. Muah hahahaha 

You know you are not alone!  I'm sure there are folks who thrive on negative outcomes rooting for the NAM...

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

convection usually amps things up so it's a valid concern. 

Not only will today/tonight's convection play a factor, but tomorrow's convection too. I'm still puzzled at the expansive slight risk, but that area of enhanced risk is the focal point. Pretty strong signals for a rather small, but intense line of thunderstorms to move northeast through that corridor. Depending how robust that is that may really throw some wrenches in. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

You know you are not alone!  I'm sure there are folks who thrive on negative outcomes rooting for the NAM...

Nam does handle convection better. We have, as Scott said, seen the NAM score the early coup because of huge convection 

[ORH_wxman]

Reggie came north too at 18z....it's not the NAM but big sensible wx change for those on the line.

[dryslot]

18z Reggie looked north too.

[jbenedet]

The prevailing theme is east winds are ripping for 12+ hrs, through 15z Saturday. I mean, the guidance consensus is the PGF unfortunately is maximized to our east despite the high in QC. 

Conceivably dews are in the low 40's in SE MA on that look. Should be no wonder, then, that the surface reflection can track right across it...

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I’m tossing it. Not sure what the hell it’s on. 

Tossed.

[TalcottWx]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Maybe after my 9.5% beer during the Bruin game tonight my feelings will change  

Why are you waiting, I am ahead of you

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tossed.

We really cannot get a consistent trend....it's been overall south the last couple of days, but each suite seems to go different than previously. Sometimes we get two in a row, but not 3. Seems like 18z the is north suite after the 12z south suite. Hopefully we can nudge it back at 00z.

Wonder if there's diurnal effects here too with the convection.

[Damage In Tolland]

The NAM is probably Not going to be that wrong 

[weathafella]

The NAM concerns me more than RGEM.  RGEM has been all over the place so it’s hard to take too seriously.

[HinghamBoss]

Another de-amplifying shortwave lifts NE into New Eng as it
encounters strong downstream high latitude blocking. Parent low will
weaken across the eastern Lakes with secondary low becoming dominant
storm as it tracks just south of the New Eng coast. This track will
help to lock in low level cold air, especially away from the coast,
but for this event we will have a pretty strong SW mid level jet
which will bring a warm nose aloft into New Eng. The challenge for
this forecast is how far N this warm nose gets Fri night, how much
of a front end thump is expected Fri night before the warming aloft
and also how much snow falls during Sat over interior northern MA
assocd with mid level low. A lot of moving parts which makes for a
very challenging snowfall forecast. The GFS is on the colder side of
the guidance envelope and we think it is too cold as it typically
has a cold bias aloft as it tends to mix out inversions. The other
consideration will be snow liquid ratios as marginal boundary layer
temps will keep SLR below 10:1, especially outside of the higher
terrain.

Timing, ptype and snowfall...

Snow should overspread the region from SW to NE between 8 pm and
midnight Fri evening. We are not expecting any impacts to the
evening commute. Mainly snow to start across all SNE as temps aloft
are plenty cold enough to support snow, then will have to watch warm
nose aloft lift NE into SNE assocd with a 70-80 kt 700 mb jet.
Current thinking is this will lift further N than what GFS is
indicating and likely get into northern MA. Confidence is not as
high as we would like at this time range as a slight shift north or
south will have a big impact on potential snow accum. We expect a
mix and possible changeover to sleet after midnight in the interior,
with a changeover to sleet then rain near the coast as increasing
easterly winds overwhelm the boundary layer. Soundings show a fairly
deep cold layer in the low levels supportive of more sleet than
freezing rain where changeover occurs. The best chance for all snow
will be across far northern MA, along and north of route 2 corridor.

We have some decent snowgrowth on the front end so a brief period of
moderate to heavy snow is likely Fri night with snowfall rates up to
1"/hr, especially away from the coast. The challenge on the coast is
SLR and potential melting as temps will be near or slightly above
freezing, but nighttime and potential brief heavier rates should
help to make up for this and bring minor accum here before the
changeover to rain.

[Damage In Tolland]

I’m thinking a couple inches of snow and sleet south of 90. And I know there’s some thoughts of no freezing rain. I’d bet there’s a narrow zone of it, at least some before a change back to sleet then snow at end 

[ORH_wxman]

Icon didn’t really move at 18z. Might have actually been a tick colder than 12z but really just noise. 

[mahk_webstah]

Interesting blurb from Legro.  Something to watch at least for us further north, as the next couple of model cycles come out. 

After 12z Sat forcing starts to weaken and/or move into the Gulf
of ME. This makes sense given that the parent S/WV trof is
deamplifying as it moves into the region and we begin losing jet
support. I feel that guidance may be too high on QPF in the
04.12z to 05.00z time period because of this. I think a
continuation of light snow is likely...but the majority of
accumulation will occur before mid morning. If guidance can
trend towards keeping forcing strong and nearby into the
afternoon...we can start to anticipate a more widespread area of
12 or more inches. Otherwise I tried to limit 1 foot totals to
the juxtaposition of best WAA forcing and within the inverted
trof axis Sat.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We really cannot get a consistent trend....it's been overall south the last couple of days, but each suite seems to go different than previously. Sometimes we get two in a row, but not 3. Seems like 18z the is north suite after the 12z south suite. Hopefully we can nudge it back at 00z.

Wonder if there's diurnal effects here too with the convection.

If the NAM were synoptically consistent with consensus and just drove the mid level warm tongue further north, then I'd go NAM all day. But I don't trust it to be synoptically correct over other guidance. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's bizarre but you just can't toss a model b/c its not a desirable solution. I mean outside of swaying from other guidance, there's really no way to say with any certainty if it's an outlandish solution. But like I mentioned earlier, once we have an actual low developed (which that process is currently happening) and the convective episode is ongoing, the models will have a much better handle.

for now, nothing can be tossed.

I know I'm not tossing it bc its undesirable. 

[78Blizzard]

13 minutes ago, HinghamBoss said:

Another de-amplifying shortwave lifts NE into New Eng as it
encounters strong downstream high latitude blocking. Parent low will
weaken across the eastern Lakes with secondary low becoming dominant
storm as it tracks just south of the New Eng coast. This track will
help to lock in low level cold air, especially away from the coast,
but for this event we will have a pretty strong SW mid level jet
which will bring a warm nose aloft into New Eng. The challenge for
this forecast is how far N this warm nose gets Fri night, how much
of a front end thump is expected Fri night before the warming aloft
and also how much snow falls during Sat over interior northern MA
assocd with mid level low. A lot of moving parts which makes for a
very challenging snowfall forecast. The GFS is on the colder side of
the guidance envelope and we think it is too cold as it typically
has a cold bias aloft as it tends to mix out inversions. The other
consideration will be snow liquid ratios as marginal boundary layer
temps will keep SLR below 10:1, especially outside of the higher
terrain.

Timing, ptype and snowfall...

Snow should overspread the region from SW to NE between 8 pm and
midnight Fri evening. We are not expecting any impacts to the
evening commute. Mainly snow to start across all SNE as temps aloft
are plenty cold enough to support snow, then will have to watch warm
nose aloft lift NE into SNE assocd with a 70-80 kt 700 mb jet.
Current thinking is this will lift further N than what GFS is
indicating and likely get into northern MA. Confidence is not as
high as we would like at this time range as a slight shift north or
south will have a big impact on potential snow accum. We expect a
mix and possible changeover to sleet after midnight in the interior,
with a changeover to sleet then rain near the coast as increasing
easterly winds overwhelm the boundary layer. Soundings show a fairly
deep cold layer in the low levels supportive of more sleet than
freezing rain where changeover occurs. The best chance for all snow
will be across far northern MA, along and north of route 2 corridor.

We have some decent snowgrowth on the front end so a brief period of
moderate to heavy snow is likely Fri night with snowfall rates up to
1"/hr, especially away from the coast. The challenge on the coast is
SLR and potential melting as temps will be near or slightly above
freezing, but nighttime and potential brief heavier rates should
help to make up for this and bring minor accum here before the
changeover to rain.

Basically, they are saying FU to the GFS.

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m thinking 2 to 4. With a chance of 5” if the CCB comes through Saturday afternoon. If 0Z continues then  I can update.

That's about what I had for you in the early Tues AM map.

New map early tmw AM.

[weatherwiz]

What's kind of interesting is regarding the parent low, it looks like models (especially mesos) never really develop a defined circulation. Almost looks like a series of mesolows which must be tied into the convection. This would certainly explain the NAM being removed from other guidance. 

[weatherwiz]

Same thing with the vorticity. The vorticity is through the roof but it's not necessarily one consolidated piece of energy. It's like a giant unorganized cluster of vorticity. 

[OceanStWx]

46 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I noticed that GYX hinted that most of our snow will be from the initial band.  This means the midlevel lows are tracking further north?  or does it mean they don't close off? 

For me it's really that the shortwave is deamplifying as it approaches, and going into the day Saturday the strongest forcing continues east with the WAA and there never is really a big push towards establishing that CCB based on upper support. But I was able to thump 6 to 8 inches in the 6 hours between 06-12z Sat.

[ineedsnow]

GFS time hope it holds

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

For me it's really that the shortwave is deamplifying as it approaches, and going into the day Saturday the strongest forcing continues east with the WAA and there never is really a big push towards establishing that CCB based on upper support. But I was able to thump 6 to 8 inches in the 6 hours between 06-12z Sat.

Yea, it's always tenuous counting on that developing overhead...that's why I got burned on the last event. Only snow I expect from this one is from the initial thump. 

[mahk_webstah]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

For me it's really that the shortwave is deamplifying as it approaches, and going into the day Saturday the strongest forcing continues east with the WAA and there never is really a big push towards establishing that CCB based on upper support. But I was able to thump 6 to 8 inches in the 6 hours between 06-12z Sat.

I’m trying to understand the role of mid-level lows because what got us are 16 inches in mid January were the track of the mid-level lows in the resulting deformation. Is this about the mid-level lows not being closed off because the main short wave is deamplifying? Sorry I know so little.

[ineedsnow]

GFS looks even less amped