Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[dryslot]

I would toss it this run.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I don't see how you can't toss it. It's not even close to other guidance. I'm not sure what it's doing when it gets closer to the lakes....but it was significantly less amped in the first 18 hours or so of that run and then it just goes crazy with the neg tilt and sets off a nuke near Detroit.

Yeah I’m tossing it. Not sure what the hell it’s on. 

[dryslot]

I bet Ron Washington would know, ha

[STILL N OF PIKE]

It really sort of spazzes out late Friday nite and sends 0c 7H temp line  into S NH 

We toss it like a hippie does a Hacky sack in greenfield 

[radarman]

wouldn't be the first coup it's scored as the northern outlier, but I appreciate the words of encouragement.

[wx2fish]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't see how you can't toss it. It's not even close to other guidance. I'm not sure what it's doing when it gets closer to the lakes....but it was significantly less amped in the first 18 hours or so of that run and then it just goes crazy with the neg tilt and sets off a nuke near Detroit.

Differences for ORD have been comical. Most everything else trended toward a meh event and the nam still hammers them. It was a trend south out there tho. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I’m tossing it. Not sure what the hell it’s on. 

The only thing that worries me with it is that even if it's like 10% right, then other guidance may tick a little worse...I would have liked to seen it go further south.

However, it was doing exactly that (going south) early on in the run...so not sure what caused it to go gangbusters in the lakes.

[CoastalWx]

Convection seems to be an issue. It does scare me when it does this shit because sometimes it ends up being closer to correct. For now, it’s an outlier. 

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I bet Ron Washington would know, ha

edibles, ipa's, and crack. helluva combo - the NAM and UKIE must be fun at parties

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The only thing that worries me with it is that even if it's like 10% right, then other guidance may tick a little worse...I would have liked to seen it go further south.

However, it was doing exactly that (going south) early on in the run...so not sure what caused it to go gangbusters in the lakes.

Tossing and scared haha. I hate that it does this. Always a lingering fear.

[FXWX]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM is just getting really amp-happy around that 30-36 hour mark....it really goes nuts with the primary low just east of Detroit. So this is going to be another torched run.

I would have bet it would have started a trend at least a bit towards the consensus at 18z.  But almost nothing.  I do admire it's stubbornness... Lol

[wx2fish]

Meanwhile, 3k looks a little snowier here than 12z

[weathafella]

Its brother agrees with it.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I would have bet it would have started a trend at least a bit towards the consensus at 18z.  But almost nothing.  I do admire it's stubbornness... Lol

Part of me would silently enjoy, if it absolutely crushed all the other guidance, and ended up perfectly right. Muah hahahaha 

[dryslot]

Legro GW

 

[HinghamBoss]

I am trying to toss the NAM.  Still has me worried.  I'm talking myself into a 4-7" zone in my neck of the woods, with some upside if the GFS really isn't drunk on the CCB.

[weatherwiz]

It's bizarre but you just can't toss a model b/c its not a desirable solution. I mean outside of swaying from other guidance, there's really no way to say with any certainty if it's an outlandish solution. But like I mentioned earlier, once we have an actual low developed (which that process is currently happening) and the convective episode is ongoing, the models will have a much better handle.

for now, nothing can be tossed.

[78Blizzard]

Well, we have a stubborn NAM and a stubborn GFS.  At this point I don't see either/both of them compromising.  The GFS has been consistent every run for days, so I am inclined to go with it.  I see BOX isn't putting up any warnings yet, so they can't be buying the GFS or even much of the other guidance.

[mahk_webstah]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Legro GW

 

he's still upset about that earlier storm when they had 8 and some got 18.  i hope this isn't the reverse scenario...but those numbers look like most of the model runs last 2 days.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, HinghamBoss said:

I am trying to toss the NAM.  Still has me worried.  I'm talking myself into a 4-7" zone in my neck of the woods, with some upside if the GFS really isn't drunk on the CCB.

I’m thinking 2 to 4. With a chance of 5” if the CCB comes through Saturday afternoon. If 0Z continues then  I can update.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's bizarre but you just can't toss a model b/c its not a desirable solution. I mean outside of swaying from other guidance, there's really no way to say with any certainty if it's an outlandish solution. But like I mentioned earlier, once we have an actual low developed (which that process is currently happening) and the convective episode is ongoing, the models will have a much better handle.

for now, nothing can be tossed.

I asked cuz folks we’re going with the Euro and NAM earlier today. But now that the Euro has gone south with Crazy Uncle and The GFS, I was curious as to how some were feeling about it. 

[mahk_webstah]

I noticed that GYX hinted that most of our snow will be from the initial band.  This means the midlevel lows are tracking further north?  or does it mean they don't close off? 

[SouthCoastMA]

convection usually amps things up so it's a valid concern. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I asked cuzfoljs we’re going with the Euro and NAM earlier today. But now that the Euro has gone south with Crazy Uncle and The GFS, I was curious as to how some were feeling about it. 

Nobody trusts It but they are weary it can sniff some unfavorable garbage out ..maybe 

[HoarfrostHubb]

37 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Does your sister live in Moosup?...or is she going to vacation down on Moosup Pond?

 

Nearby.  The beautiful area of Burrilville RI.  Sorta like Appalachia.   
She is actually in FL right now but her son is at home 

[HinghamBoss]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m thinking 2 to 4. With a chance of 5” if the CCB comes through Saturday afternoon. If 0Z continues then  I can update.

Let's break the record for biggest storm of the season!!! (disclaimer: 3" is biggest storm of season).

[SJonesWX]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's bizarre but you just can't toss a model b/c its not a desirable solution. I mean outside of swaying from other guidance, there's really no way to say with any certainty if it's an outlandish solution. But like I mentioned earlier, once we have an actual low developed (which that process is currently happening) and the convective episode is ongoing, the models will have a much better handle.

for now, nothing can be tossed.

this can certainly be tossed

[Ginx snewx]

43 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Really... I believe you, but a bit surprised... all the guys I deal with indicated they only needed one good scraping during the hour or so prior to daybreak and then treatments... even here, one good plow passage and then treatment, at 7 am or so and then it was gone...  probably was tough to keep up with in some cases, especially in the predawn hours... once you get a decent base on the roads, it does change the outcome... overnight / predawn hours for the best rates are key this time of the year...

Think we had heavy rates later than you

[NorEastermass128]

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

convection usually amps things up so it's a valid concern. 

Or it steals moisture when convection pulls everything way SE out to sea. 

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I asked cuz folks we’re going with the Euro and NAM earlier today. But now that the Euro has gone south with Crazy Uncle and The GFS, I was curious as to how some were feeling about it. 

Maybe after my 9.5% beer during the Bruin game tonight my feelings will change