Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[CoastalWx]

Can't say enough to beware the 10:1 stuff near the coast. Stormvista especially has awful clown maps.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Can't say enough to beware the 10:1 stuff near the coast. Stormvista especially has awful clown maps.

I'd prob go 6 or 7 to 1 right on the coast, unless this rips, then it will be closer to 10 to 1.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I'd prob go 6 or 7 to 1 right on the coast, unless this rips, then it will be closer to 10 to 1.

Would be near 10:1 on GFS lol. 

[weathafella]

Th pivotal total 10:1 snow matched the other images posted  

 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Ya Rockport isn’t getting 10:1 lol

[weathafella]

Sv maps (like all of them) are weenie fodder.

[weatherwiz]

Yeah just looking through some bufkit profiles. Outside of the heavier omega snow ratios will be crap. Definitely closer to 7:1 or even 6:1. Where omega is quite significant ratios may even be closer to 15:1. 

[joey2002]

32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Did Ray post Kuchera yet?

Why does this Kuchera map give you almost a foot of snow while the Pivotal Kuchera shows only like 3”?  

 

[tamarack]

23 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I've been thinking 8-12 with lollies to 15, which is a little less than these qpf maps would imply, assuming we have at least one period of higher ratio snow during the storm.

Saw noon news snow maps on 2 channels.  Both had 8-12 as tops and for much the same area.  However, one had my area centered in the 3-5 color while the other had us in the middle of 5-9.  GFS vs. Euro?

[8611Blizz]

This is before the Euro but the marine influence is strong in this one..

[FXWX]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can't say enough to beware the 10:1 stuff near the coast. Stormvista especially has awful clown maps.

Also... Ground and road surface temps continue to run warmer than normal for the winter and this has played a significant role with the impacts, or lack there of, in terms of significant or long lasting disruptive travel conditions across many areas.  The roads during this past sne snow event gobbled up the snow with one pass of the plows & one treatment.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya Rockport isn’t getting 10:1 lol

I lived there in the mid 1980s when the dinosaurs roamed...  brutal.   Although, there wasn't much of winter anywhere in 84-85 - that I know of...  But we did have a couple standard Nor'easters that winter and the geek-out over the surf and power of the ocean is actually well worth the admission - you just have to suspend any interesting is snow. We did get one one storm that season though that had 4-6" to go with folding walls of wave power, but it was at the aft end of January after a brutal cold snap - I remember the arctic sea smoke at dawn one morning, with the sun rising behind, back-lighting translucent steam dogs as they roamed back and forth like they were on patrol.  

It's not a snow climate you appreciate out there.  You leave all expectations behind when passing the Fishery factories from the mainland side of the Penn

[8611Blizz]

3 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Also... Ground and road surface temps continue to run warmer than normal for the winter and this has played a significant role with the impacts, or lack there of, in terms of significant or long lasting disruptive travel conditions across many areas.  The roads during this past sne snow event gobbled up the snow with one pass of the plows & one treatment.

 

Yes, yes they did. (Thankfully)

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Also... Ground and road surface temps continue to run warmer than normal for the winter and this has played a significant role with the impacts, or lack there of, in terms of significant or long lasting disruptive travel conditions across many areas.  The roads during this past sne snow event gobbled up the snow with one pass of the plows & one treatment.

 

Great post. One thing I noticed since moving in with my girlfriend is they SUCKKKKKKKKKKK with her roads. They didn't come by to plow the road Tuesday until like 1:30 PM. In the few storms since I've been there (well all last winter really) the road would be **** for days. Our snow guy came at 7:30 and I happened to look outside and the road was PERFECTLY clear. 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Also... Ground and road surface temps continue to run warmer than normal for the winter and this has played a significant role with the impacts, or lack there of, in terms of significant or long lasting disruptive travel conditions across many areas.  The roads during this past sne snow event gobbled up the snow with one pass of the plows & one treatment.

 

This is mainly due to time of year and Morch sun angle . Reason # 10 why snow this time of year is stat padding and Dec snow is 100x better 

[ORH_wxman]

EPS continues to tickle colder...it's decaying the primary a bit quicker than the 6z run.

[NorEastermass128]

1-14” should do it for here. 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS continues to tickle colder...it's decaying the primary a bit quicker than the 6z run.

Every little bit matters down here. Tough forecast.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS continues to tickle colder...it's decaying the primary a bit quicker than the 6z run.

What changes wound enhance the CCB , earlier development of 850 /closing off?

[Damage In Tolland]

Stein just always struggles 

 

[Ginx snewx]

27 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Also... Ground and road surface temps continue to run warmer than normal for the winter and this has played a significant role with the impacts, or lack there of, in terms of significant or long lasting disruptive travel conditions across many areas.  The roads during this past sne snow event gobbled up the snow with one pass of the plows & one treatment.

 

? Roads were a disaster here until like 8 am when solar helped. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What changes wound enhance the CCB , earlier development of 850 /closing off?

Yeah we want to turn that flow from out of the SE/SSE to more easterly as quick as possible....that gets the CCB cranking...you are essentially wrapping the WCB precip up and around the north side of the storm which what becomes the CCB in the classical diagrams. If the flow never really turns east until later, then we get the WCB rip through (our front end thump) and then a dryslot while the CCB goods hit further north or offshore if it takes too long even for NNE.

The one aspect that helps in this storm is that it hits a brick wall and starts going due east...so that "Allows" the CCB to form fairly late and still possibly get us because the storm stops gaining latitude near us. But yeah, the faster the turning of the mid-level winds out of the east, the better.

 

See a quick example below....look at how the GFS is starting to turn things pretty hard out of the east by 09z Saturday morning....

 

 

Now 6 hours later at 15z, it's full-on CCB look...and we get away with that relatively late development because it's going nearly due east

 

 

Now look at the NAM at the same exact times and look at how much worse it is for SNE

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

A bunch of the Boston OTA mets have been going big on the winds near the coast

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

A bunch of the Boston OTA mets have been going big on the winds near the coast

I think that’s legit 

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

? Roads were a disaster here until like 8 am when solar helped. 

Ginx, what do you think for your area?  My sister is wondering.  I'm thinking just a couple of inches of snow if any.  Some sleet and rain  

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

I've been thinking 8-12 with lollies to 15, which is a little less than these qpf maps would imply, assuming we have at least one period of higher ratio snow during the storm.

take a look at the qpf maps that @powderfreak posted. both Euro and GFS have you solidly in the 1.25" range. that's nothing to shake a stick at

34 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Also... Ground and road surface temps continue to run warmer than normal for the winter and this has played a significant role with the impacts, or lack there of, in terms of significant or long lasting disruptive travel conditions across many areas.  The roads during this past sne snow event gobbled up the snow with one pass of the plows & one treatment.

 

won't be an issue up here. snowpack is in good shape, todays rain aside. and the snow had no problem quickly accumulating during a quick busrst of snow this AM. yeah later Saturday once storm winds down roads should be in good shape. talking my area specifically

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Ginx, what do you think for your area?  My sister is wondering.  I'm thinking just a couple of inches of snow if any.  Some sleet and rain  

Yea sounds right but every run has been colder and thumps more so guess we await tomorrow 

[WinterWolf]

GFS leading the way it seems…as we thought. 

[Ginx snewx]

39 minutes ago, joey2002 said:

Why does this Kuchera map give you almost a foot of snow while the Pivotal Kuchera shows only like 3”?  

 

I have no idea. Cod weather and F5

[DomNH]

7 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

won't be an issue up here. snowpack is in good shape, todays rain aside. and the snow had no problem quickly accumulating during a quick busrst of snow this AM. yeah later Saturday once storm winds down roads should be in good shape. talking my area specifically

Yeah, this matters in terms of planning the day Saturday. If we get a 4-8'' thump late Friday through like 12-13z Saturday then dryslot/showery -SN the main roads should be alright by the afternoon with solar help. If we get into an afternoon CCB the snow should be heavy enough to re-stick and the whole day is probably shot. Still don't really buy it, though.