Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Biggest improvement this run was the thump. It's starting to actually look decent. The CCB idea is fun, but I'm not counting on much from that....Im assuming it will mostly hit like SE NH and then slide offshore....but the thump can give us close to warning snows alone.

Be leery of the models handling the secondary development rates -

[TalcottWx]

8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You are so snake bitten by this winter lol. It was a good move south. Doesn’t mean it can’t go back north, but it was a decent move 

My little se MA ray of positivity!

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, MuddyWx said:

and the weenie deflator map

Sometimes you just gotta lower that dopamine level for future appreciation 

[TalcottWx]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not looking at clown maps, I am looking at features which to me is more important. 

How much for Falmouth 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Euro cut QPF about 20% Across SNE that run 

It was actually more paltry with the CCB for a lot of us. That's an idiosyncratic feature that seems to show up better on certain runs than others (except on GFS which just crushes every run, lol)...which is why I'm not counting on it...I'll treat it as gravy if it can happen. But that initial thump I think is where we'll want to focus in the near-term. If the CCB starts looking better and better, then we can entertain something higher end.

[Ginx snewx]

Did Ray post Kuchera yet?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TalcottWx said:

How much for Falmouth 

I could see 1-2 to start, maybe half inch to end? 

[weathafella]

What’s going on with the pivotal clowns?

[CoastalWx]

The GFS CCB would be nasty. 40kts of wind driven paste. 

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Wondering how far south the watches will go? Hoping they make it to the 4 northern counties of CT ( I'm pulling for you guys on the coast as well ). Not sure we will even get a watch here though. 

If we couldn’t get one until game time for the last event I can’t see how they’d pull the trigger on anything other than an advisory here unless there’s a big shift south at 18z or 00z

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

What’s going on with the pivotal clowns?

Positive depth change was posted.  Not your generic clown map.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

What’s going on with the pivotal clowns?

 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

What’s going on with the pivotal clowns?

Most of them seem fine except the Ukie had some sort of error that basically took out any snow that fell between 42-48h (aka, the thump).

[weathafella]

[OceanStWx]

Granted it looks like the storm of the season for many, but I also feel like I'm edging out onto the runway with my flares. I feel like guidance is probably too juicy after 12z when forcing starts to taper off and dry air (especially up here) starts to sneak in, but I'm seeing some good 6 hour forecasts popping up with our internal collaboration. I never like to see huge forecast swings based on one set of model runs.

[Chris12WX]

What type of snow are we expecting with the thump? Heavy wet or fluffy? Asking as someone who’s trees got the hell beat out them once already this year. 

[MegaMike]

1 minute ago, MuddyWx said:

and the weenie deflator map

I've mentioned this in the past, but 1) snow depth fields from NWP include gauge losses due to melting/compaction/sublimation/etc... and 2) the ratio algorithms are underestimated (from the land surface models I'm aware of, they only incorporate near surface temperature and wind speed). They basically assume immediate compaction.

I agreed with another met on here that this product is helpful along the boundary b/n rain and snow. Further inland, it's best to use SWE (use 10:1 ratios if you must).

[powderfreak]

Just now, weathafella said:

Yeah that's the 10:1 map vs. the Depth Change maps which seem to be up to 50% reduced.

[Typhoon Tip]

consensus shifted S... what can I say -  

I mentioned this morning that the consensus could certainly move, and that's apparently happened ... immediately upon that next ensuing run. Heh. 

This obviously increases the odds ( from a pure modeling reliance - I was never completely sold on the consensus from overnight's runs when I posted those statements this morning..) the white over wet profile implication for that band between rt 2 and the Pike...If fact, pretty dramatically so. 

Still, we are dealing with gradated set up.  You may observe S+ and be on the phone with a pall 10 miles S of you and he/she is reporting R+ with cat paw wad rain drops and one or two pingers. But that transition is now pretty clearly south HFD-PVD ...perhaps even Willamantic CT to PVD.

I honestly lean toward the GFS as just having a better handle on this from the get go, and that we've wasted life energy in consternation all week -

Either that, or it will be the most adamant bust in the history of model stubborn insistence.  Thing is, I can see reasons ( still ) for the previous NAM/Euro and the GFS runs, and still do.  But, all things being equal... one side of the debate is giving up.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Chris12WX said:

What type of snow are we expecting with the thump? Heavy wet or fluffy? Asking as someone who’s trees got the hell beat out them once already this year. 

 Think it will probably be *mostly" fluffy over the interior outside of 495 (temps look like 28-30F with a fairly cold 900-950 layer)....it may be pasty though inside of there and esp once within 10 mile of the coast.

 

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Granted it looks like the storm of the season for many, but I also feel like I'm edging out onto the runway with my flares. I feel like guidance is probably too juicy after 12z when forcing starts to taper off and dry air (especially up here) starts to sneak in, but I'm seeing some good 6 hour forecasts popping up with our internal collaboration. I never like to see huge forecast swings based on one set of model runs.

I've been thinking 8-12 with lollies to 15, which is a little less than these qpf maps would imply, assuming we have at least one period of higher ratio snow during the storm.

[TalcottWx]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It somehow got snowier up here too.

One of these is not like the other.

Perhaps the low is better consolidating allowing deform to expand. 

[weatherwiz]

If 18z guidance continues to be this suggestive with the thump it may be time to go big

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 Think it will probably be *mostly" fluffy over the interior outside of 495 (temps look like 28-30F with a fairly cold 900-950 layer)....it may be pasty though inside of there and esp once within 10 mile of the coast.

 

So like the snow we had Monday night until it warmed to near 32 during the afternoon on Tuesday?

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So like the snow we had Monday night until it warmed to near 32 during the afternoon?

Yeah should be similar....it's gonna be a little warmer than that, but still cold enough I think over interior to remain mostly fluffy during the thump phase. My area may be far enough east that it starts getting a little pastier, but my guess is the true paste will be closer to 128/I-95 and eastward.

 

This is assuming no major changes again of course....which could still happen.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah should be similar....it's gonna be a little warmer than that, but still cold enough I think over interior to remain mostly fluffy during the thump phase. My area may be far enough east that it starts getting a little pastier, but my guess is the true paste will be closer to 128/I-95 and eastward.

 

This is assuming no major changes again of course....which could still happen.

Geez I wonder where the thump is

[qg_omega]

20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It somehow got snowier up here too.

One of these is not like the other.

the middle is perfect

[SnowGoose69]

This will be a good event to do an over under on Logan.  Hard to see them getting over 3-4 but 5 miles inland is another story

[NorEastermass128]

19 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Oh boy, I might have to go visit the parents in Rockport. 

[Hoth]

22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Did Ray post Kuchera yet?

Sick! That half inch would increase my season to date by 5%!