Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[CoastalWx]

[HinghamBoss]

One other GFS yellow light is the amount of snow that falls between 7AM-Noon on Saturday here.  As we saw this week, would have to be some insane rates to get accums like that.  Feels like another Midnight-7AM race to pile up.  Not buying double digits.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Take a deep breath and Give out a Couple big Howls

[jbenedet]

Guidance has been notoriously cold at the surface all the way into go time, this season. This is especially true for NAM and GFS.

You tack on a few degrees at the surface for even latest NAM and GFS and it's a lot of inhibition to stacking it up at the stake. 

The gradient with this really is like the seasonal persistence, to a Tee, in my view.

 

[CoastalWx]

GEFS are balls out too. 

[BostonWX]

Most important euro run of our lives at 12z for BOS area (until 00z)

[HoarfrostHubb]

Pretty easy forecast for my area at least.   A nice strip of 1"-15" with a little sleet and maybe some rain should suffice

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

GEFS are balls out too. 

They’re holding tough! Lol. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Guidance has been notoriously cold at the surface all the way into go time, this season. This is especially true for NAM and GFS.

You tack on a few degrees at the surface for even latest NAM and GFS and it's a lot of inhibition to stacking it up at the stake. 

The gradient with this really is like the seasonal persistence, to a Tee, in my view.

 

Guidance has been dreadful with temperatures pretty much throughout the country for weeks. I'm sure a large part of it has to do with the pattern but I mean they've been terrible. MOS, NBM, etc. I don't know much (well anything) about model physics, but I wonder how much of an impact something like this has on the models. 

[HinghamBoss]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS are balls out too. 

Another solution going all in on The Wall.  Insane totals between 6z-12z.

[Great Snow 1717]

5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Guidance has been notoriously cold at the surface all the way into go time, this season. This is especially true for NAM and GFS.

You tack on a few degrees at the surface for even latest NAM and GFS and it's a lot of inhibition to stacking it up at the stake. 

The gradient with this really is like the seasonal persistence, to a Tee, in my view.

 

..and it is why that needs to be taken into account for the upcoming storm..

[MuddyWx]

GEFS loves that CCB

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, HinghamBoss said:

Another solution going all in on The Wall.  Insane totals between 6z-12z.

Fahrvergnugen model was a tick south, but needs work.

 

I would like the euro to make a move and not a 5 mile fart to the south. 

[WinterWolf]

And if it does…are folks still gonna say the GFS went towards it? 
 

And if it doesn’t make a move, then we have a stand off.  

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Fahrvergnugen model was a tick south, but needs work.

 

I would like the euro to make a move and not a 5 mile fart to the south. 

Yeah but the Euro typically doesn't make moves that are more than 5 mile farts.

 

Ukie looked pretty good. Has a really nice thump front end. (just don't look at clown maps on pivotal....snow algorithm went all wonky between 42-48h during the big thump)

[Hoth]

Can I engineer a fifty mile south shift by dumping coffee on the Euro mainframe? I’ve given up on snow, but a cold paint-ablating scalping would be nice. 

[FXWX]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

They’re holding tough! Lol. 

I'm expecting, maybe wrongly, a huge NAM solution flip within 12 hours.  Over the years, I'd take consistent rgem over a consistent NAM.  Any compromise solution between the euro, gfs, them is nowhere near as warm and blah as the NAM.  NAM is in a position to out-duel not just one model, but 3 or 4 other schemes.  Maybe it  does, but I'm beyond wary...

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

I'm expecting, maybe wrongly, a huge NAM solution flip within 12 hours.  Over the years, I'd take consistent rgem over a consistent NAM.  Any compromise solution between the euro, gfs, them is nowhere near as warm and blah as the NAM.  NAM is in a position to out-duel not just one model, but 3 or 4 other schemes.  Maybe it  does, but I'm beyond wary...

Ya I agree John.  I don’t think the NAM wins the day here though.  Certainly I could be completely wrong…but I’m not thinking so. If nothing else, it’s model theater at its best at the moment. 

[SouthCoastMA]

The Euro past two days: Chicago to Cleveland, slow trek. 

[SouthCoastMA]

The GFS: pretty consistent, some wobbling around Cleveland. 

[Ginx snewx]

IBM graf

[WinterWolf]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

The Euro past two days: Chicago to Cleveland, slow trek. 

My point exactly…was way too far west. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

The Euro past two days: Chicago to Cleveland, slow trek. 

Yeah biggest issue was near Chicago. But sensible weather here it hasn’t made a huge difference yet.

 

I hope it does move south.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Ukie looked a hair better to me at 850/700 but the clown was worse and precip was same . Pretty null run 

[weatherwiz]

We'll really know for certain with the 0z (f not 6z) runs tonight. By then the surface low will have developed and convection will be ongoing. The issues that models are having with the development of these two will be resolved and I would think model performance improves and becomes in stronger agreement. 

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah biggest issue was near Chicago. But sensible weather here it hasn’t made a huge difference yet.

 

I hope it does move south.

And it doesn't mean shit here, so I'm not sure why I care.  I'll take another tic or 2 south so I can get a couple on the front end, which would mean 6"+ potentially in your neck of the woods. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ukie looked a hair better to me at 850/700 but the clown was worse and precip was same . Pretty null run 

Clown map on pivotal had something weird happen between 42-48....it has nobody getting over an inch or snow (including CNE/NNE)....so just go old school and analyze the QPF/midlevels.

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

The GFS: pretty consistent, some wobbling around Cleveland. 

Nice brain fart with that low on the delmarva, Whats a 500 mi shift east among friends.

[WinterWolf]

Is the better high pressure to the north in Maine on the GFS a legit possibility?  Cuz if so that could mean a big difference obviously. 

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Nice brain fart with that low on the delmarva, Whats a 500 mi shift east among friends.

just an earlier transfer reflected on surface map. primary still around Cleveland