Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[George001]

This one is going to be a nightmare to forecast. Even a couple degrees off would mean a big difference in expected snowfall. 

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It won’t give up lol…doubling and tripling down. 

Told you not to fold them. When you go all in you need to ride it to the end, either going down in a blaze of glory, or in flames. No capitulation. 

[UnitedWx]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

HRRR is ice cold . Not NAM like 

I trust that model as much as the NAM at this range...

[Ginx snewx]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not talking about NNE.

Didn't see any 12 to 20s on the Narcan post I made out of NNE so I have no idea what you were talking about.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

This one is going to be a nightmare to forecast. Even a couple degrees off would mean a big difference in expected snowfall. 

It's beyond a nightmare. I mean this is even a nightmare forecast for the northern Ohio Valley. It is nearly impossible right now to just easily say "toss or "ride with" a particular piece of guidance. 

[DomNH]

Still looks like a lot of banded/showery precipitation to me after the initial thump. Still thinking 3-6''/4-8'' N of the Pike and especially N of Rt. 2 during the intial thump and then whatever falls during daylight Saturday is hit or miss given the crap airmass. Mostly miss if we don't get a legit CCB and I still don't buy it. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, RDRY said:

So the NAM is the warm outlier at this point?

Yes. Still not buying the GFS fully, but it's gaining support little by little. I'm in a spot that doesn't really have a lot of wiggle room, so not expecting a big storm here right now...prob a lot of kitchen sink crap that might accumulate to several inches, but if we are going to entertain an actual thump on the front end like even the RGEM shows, then it changes everything.

[UnitedWx]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Locking it in....turn off the computer now

Pre lunch cocktails with the HRRR , waiting on Uncle to show up is what that is

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Told you not to fold them. When you go all in you need to ride it to the end, either going down in a blaze of glory, or in flames. No capitulation. 

Oh I didn’t give up on my idea…just didn’t want to carry it on in here, and muck up the thread. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Where is the pope, if he isn’t posting that maybe bullish for a S shift 

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh I didn’t give up on my idea…just didn’t want to carry it on in here, and muck up the thread. 

Isn't this nearly the time frame the NAM did a 180 last storm? Will be interesting to see if there's any trend this evening.

[DomNH]

GFS really is perfect with that CCB otherwise it's a thump then on and off 2 sm sand at 33F during the day Saturday. 

[SnowGoose69]

Underrated issue with this storm too is the convection over the OH and TN Valley region is probably going to have some sort of impact on track and moisture

[dryslot]

Convection always mucks things up so i would expect this one to be no different.

[George001]

Canadian ticked south too

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Underrated issue with this storm too is the convection over the OH and TN Valley region is probably going to have some sort of impact on track and moisture

Agreed, mentioned that same thing too earlier. That's one major differentiator between this setup and earlier in the week. That system did not have much in the way of convection so it was one less thing to screw things up.

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM came south a bit too from 00z. Really crushes north of pike into S half of NH/VT.

[HinghamBoss]

Absolutely fascinated by the GFS not even flinching.

[HinghamBoss]

I'm starting to talk myself into a compromise situation where just south and east of Boston gets 6-8" ala the RGEM, which feels like the compromise between nothing on the NAM and the GFS crushing.

The one pause I keep having is there have been plenty of times the last few years where we are in this borderline situation and the NAM sniffs out the temperature issues. 

[subdude]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

NAM 3k says not even. 

Ugh! This is horrible. 

[mahk_webstah]

With practically every model shift, the area from nw mass, svt, s and c nh, over to Jeff does well.  That is a good sign for us who are in that general strip.  Would be a complete failure of every model family if there wasn't at least a 6-12 stripe across that area.  I think the chance for lollies of 15-18 is very much on the table, depending on midlevel deformation perhaps?

[subdude]

58 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

At least the Bruins have had an exciting day 

great extension signing. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, HinghamBoss said:

I'm starting to talk myself into a compromise situation where just south and east of Boston gets 6-8" ala the RGEM, which feels like the compromise between nothing on the NAM and the GFS crushing.

The one pause I keep having is there have been plenty of times the last few years where we are in this borderline situation and the NAM sniffs out the temperature issues. 

I'm still worried about a thin warm nose around 700-750mb on the front end thump. I'd feel a little better if that layer cooled a little more on guidance. It's quite high in the column, but I've seen it many times turn a 6-8" snow into 3" with tons of pellets.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, subdude said:

Ugh! This is horrible. 

It’s on its own though.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm still worried about a thin warm nose around 700-750mb on the front end thump. I'd feel a little better if that layer cooled a little more on guidance. It's quite high in the column, but I've seen it many times turn a 6-8" snow into 3" with tons of pellets.

Do you think the initial dry air could help with cooling that layer (evap cooling)? It's not a major warm layer so maybe it an cool just enough to prevent sleet. If the GFS is more correct there could see some dynamic cooling to offset a warm nose

[jbenedet]

13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Where is the pope, if he isn’t posting that maybe bullish for a S shift 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Do you think the initial dry air could help with cooling that layer (evap cooling)? It's not a major warm layer so maybe it an cool just enough to prevent sleet. If the GFS is more correct there could see some dynamic cooling to offset a warm nose

Sure...anytime you get big lift along with rapid saturation in a warmer unsaturated layer, it's going to cool. Question is how much can that offset the ongoing WAA. I like to see big omega (> 25 microbars)....typically at least kissing the DGZ.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm still worried about a thin warm nose around 700-750mb on the front end thump. I'd feel a little better if that layer cooled a little more on guidance. It's quite high in the column, but I've seen it many times turn a 6-8" snow into 3" with tons of pellets.

I also like seeing it come in like a wall on the GFS. For him and I, we'll need that. Frankly, that is the bigger concern. I'll need a thump for sure or it's an inch or two of crud.

[ineedsnow]

12z GEFS mean is 13 here

[HinghamBoss]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I also like seeing it come in like a wall on the GFS. For him and I, we'll need that. Frankly, that is the bigger concern. I'll need a thump for sure or it's an inch or two of crud.

Needs to be gangbusters or overnight Friday is like groundhog day of Monday night.