Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[weatherwiz]

Mentioned this yesterday, but models still struggling exactly where the sfc low develops and strengthens tonight. That's having an impact on whether we see more east/west track. Regardless though, I think the idea of the primary remaining strong is gaining merit. 

[MuddyWx]

haha

[wx2fish]

Still a pretty good thump for SNH into NE MA on the front end on NAM. Mid level warmth hits a wall 

[CoastalWx]

3K is ugly too. 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Only thing I can see is maybe a better CCB perhaps like I mentioned earlier. lets see.

CCB looks like it's ticking SW at least

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

3K is ugly too. 

You and i have different views on this....ha ha

[subdude]

3-5" pasting up my way. 

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

A lot of sleet in there

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

A lot of sleet in there

NAM basically starts as sleet for us.  Awful, hope it’s wrong. 

[Damage In Tolland]

NAM wins again . It’s never wrong in these even though people toss . I learned that lesson over the years 

[J Paul Gordon]

My grandson's first birthday party is scheduled in Southbridge, MA, Saturday morning. When I saw 8-12 for Friday night and 1-3 more for Saturday morning on my Weather Channel app, I felt my heart drop for my daughter and son-in-law (not to mention my wife and me). I can't say I'm sorry to hear the storm will flop south of the pike. We're closer to the NH line, so maybe a few inches here, but Johnny and his little (and not so little) friends will have their party. I'm a snow lover (gotta say more so earlier in the season), but nothing beats a grandson.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You and i have different views on this....ha ha

You look fine regardless so I just assume that lol. SOS here. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, subdude said:

3-5" pasting up my way. 

 

NAM 3k says not even. 

[dryslot]

Looks like on the 12z Nam, Its going to have the trough extension too like the one last week that prolongs this a bit.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NAM wins again . It’s never wrong in these even though people toss . I learned that lesson over the years 

Once it sniffs out a warm layer, Its usually not denied.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

9 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Still a pretty good thump for SNH into NE MA on the front end on NAM. Mid level warmth hits a wall 

Another system with temps 32/33 as meat of precip hits Merrimack valley . I’m feeling confident Elevations are going to win in that area and esp as you transitions to hilltowns. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NAM wins again . It’s never wrong in these even though people toss . I learned that lesson over the years 

It's the northern outlier right now and it was wrong on 2/23 when it was the northern outlier. While I may lean toward the NAM, taking it verbatim probably isn't a wise move when it's the further north.

[Typhoon Tip]

... at finite ( sub-consensus consideration) scales...  we can also look for:

marginality begin in-storm correct colder ( now-cast) should a Miller B be under assessed and turn out more intense.  That's sort of a wild-card there, whenever we have a secondary

[HinghamBoss]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You look fine regardless so I just assume that lol. SOS here. 

You think more or less here vs Tuesday?  Intentionally low bar lol.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's the northern outlier right now and it was wrong on 2/23 when it was the northern outlier. While I may lean toward the NAM, taking it verbatim probably isn't a wise move when it's the further north.

Another garbage airmass is an issue  hanging over the majority of the CP post initial thump . If this had jacked up mid levels I would be more bullish for N half of mass CP, but as this has slower more falls during day 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, HinghamBoss said:

You think more or less here vs Tuesday?  Intentionally low bar lol.

Bar is low. Again I see no reason for upside at the moment. Unless the globals convince me. Maybe for us, Saturday aftn offers an inch additional. 

[CoastalWx]

NAM tried to get an inv trough migrating from west to east late Saturday. 

[wx2fish]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Another system with temps 32/33 as meat of precip hits Merrimack valley . I’m feeling confident Elevations are going to win in that area and esp as you transitions to hilltowns. 

Atleast the meat of the thump is night/early. I could see it struggling more on Sat if the CCB is more meh. Unlike the other day, this one will atleast have some northerly drain, albeit a crappy airmass. 

[TalcottWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NAM wins again . It’s never wrong in these even though people toss . I learned that lesson over the years 

NAM tossed as far as ur ice forecast

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Another garbage airmass is the elephant hanging over the majority of the CP post initial thump 

Yeah you will need real rates on the thump part. Putting 0.05 in the bucket isn't gonna get it done on that. But if we're able to slam in 30-40 microbars and be crushing 0.20" in the bucket every hour, then the sfc temps will be mostly irrelevant...everyone will latently cool to like like 32.

[CoastalWx]

FV3 wants to bury everyone to the canal. LOL.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

FV3 wants to bury everyone to the canal. LOL.

Really need to see that model give NYC a MECS before being confident up here....the cold bias on that thing is LOL

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NAM wins again . It’s never wrong in these even though people toss . I learned that lesson over the years 

I couldn’t care less because this one has been a definite washout here for days but the NAM was definitely a little too warm on 2/28. Had it being almost all sleet where I am and it ended up all snow. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

FV3 wants to bury everyone to the canal. LOL.

And on the flip side, FV3 was too cold lol. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

And on the flip side, FV3 was too cold lol. 

It is, which is why a had a LOL. It's a junk model.