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Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event


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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not caving. I’d say gfs made some nudges north too. Maybe it’s slightly moving toward it, but I’m tossing it for now. 

I see a consensus emerging a good portion of this sub-forum members won't like ( unfortunately ...)

Snow/mix contention is along Rt 2 ... but for a distance S, will probably have to contend with some mixing negotiation that terminates to a skunk event for the Pike and points S - limited to no ZR for this affair.

N of Rt 2 ... snow and mix fades to all snow, and determining stack is about temperature/ratios. 

All regions do not suffer more than a medium impact.   Obviously where all rain...the impact is defined as just a moderate QPF event. 

This is what I would be drawing my weather maps.  Whether that consensus may or may not meanders N or S from this interpretation ... who knows. But as is -

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

There might be a decent little pocket of convection which traverses West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and maybe southern New Jersey. Depending how robust and organized this could certainly rob a quite a bit of moisture like Ullmark robbed the Flames the other night.

Are you going to follow the severe weather outbreak in the south this evening?

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1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Are you going to follow the severe weather outbreak in the south this evening?

Yeah I'll be watching that while watching hokey. I'm a bit skeptical as to whether it will play out as advertised though. I think that large Slight risk tomorrow is a bit aggressive as well. That Artificial Intelligence severe weather tool that gets tossed around like candy now (I forget what it is) kind of drives me nuts. 

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Yeah, the models don’t look that far apart. Most have the low going over Nantucket. The more north guidance has the low going over the elbow and the gfs is a bit se of Nantucket, but not by much. I know there are big differences in the clown maps when looking at say gfs vs nam, but those clown maps suck and are probably going to be wrong. 10:1 doesn’t work when there is mixing or thermals are marginal, in reality especially for borderline areas they will be lower. Those snow depth maps are more realistic.

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... and I don't see any compelling reason why a Euro/NAM blend is more useful than the cold guidance camp. 

I would recommend a whole membership consensus here.  

There are equal logics in support of either - none of which can be convincingly refuted at this time.  Hence the inclusive tact.

Having said all that .. yeah, it's possible that a flat-out colder solution "wins" or vice versa, but the reasons for that would require some sort of reanalysis/research.  Course of lesser regret is the gray route

 

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Can we lock in the 12z HRRR?

S-W-E-E-T!
Locked and loaded...FIRE!
Liking the evolution to hopeful outcome for you's guys.

----------------
Meanwhile- mowing season has begun here. Time to break-out the 72" Ferris, all 10 acres.
Million dollar property.
Momma I'm coming home.

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1 hour ago, radarman said:

notice how the split in opinion seems to be function of latitude and longitude and which side of the r/s line you're on

Ironically, no this wasn’t the case with my opinion.  

My only point was that I believe the GFS had the better idea from the get go with this system.,it was better with the strength of the block/confluence.  And it had the right idea of not plowing the primary as far north/into Michigan, or as far west, like the Euro was showing Tuesday and early Wednesday. Just my take.  

But whatever,  lm at 11.3” on the season, at least I made it to double digits. What a horrible season. 
 

 

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4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

They were doing that this morning in Simsbury :wacko:

Id rather them just give the employees the overtime to twiddle their thumbs than spread that crap all over the roads. I weep for my truck every time I have to drive around on this crap.

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