Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It’s not caving. I’d say gfs made some nudges north too. Maybe it’s slightly moving toward it, but I’m tossing it for now. I see a consensus emerging a good portion of this sub-forum members won't like ( unfortunately ...) Snow/mix contention is along Rt 2 ... but for a distance S, will probably have to contend with some mixing negotiation that terminates to a skunk event for the Pike and points S - limited to no ZR for this affair. N of Rt 2 ... snow and mix fades to all snow, and determining stack is about temperature/ratios. All regions do not suffer more than a medium impact. Obviously where all rain...the impact is defined as just a moderate QPF event. This is what I would be drawing my weather maps. Whether that consensus may or may not meanders N or S from this interpretation ... who knows. But as is - 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 It's ok, at least we had a decent event a few days ago. This is just not a S of Pike event. At least there's been active potential wintry threats to track. I am more discouraged by the 09-10 style air mass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 There might be a decent little pocket of convection which traverses West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and maybe southern New Jersey. Depending how robust and organized this could certainly rob a quite a bit of moisture like Ullmark robbed the Flames the other night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: There might be a decent little pocket of convection which traverses West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and maybe southern New Jersey. Depending how robust and organized this could certainly rob a quite a bit of moisture like Ullmark robbed the Flames the other night. Are you going to follow the severe weather outbreak in the south this evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said: Are you going to follow the severe weather outbreak in the south this evening? Yeah I'll be watching that while watching hokey. I'm a bit skeptical as to whether it will play out as advertised though. I think that large Slight risk tomorrow is a bit aggressive as well. That Artificial Intelligence severe weather tool that gets tossed around like candy now (I forget what it is) kind of drives me nuts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Yeah, the models don’t look that far apart. Most have the low going over Nantucket. The more north guidance has the low going over the elbow and the gfs is a bit se of Nantucket, but not by much. I know there are big differences in the clown maps when looking at say gfs vs nam, but those clown maps suck and are probably going to be wrong. 10:1 doesn’t work when there is mixing or thermals are marginal, in reality especially for borderline areas they will be lower. Those snow depth maps are more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 ... and I don't see any compelling reason why a Euro/NAM blend is more useful than the cold guidance camp. I would recommend a whole membership consensus here. There are equal logics in support of either - none of which can be convincingly refuted at this time. Hence the inclusive tact. Having said all that .. yeah, it's possible that a flat-out colder solution "wins" or vice versa, but the reasons for that would require some sort of reanalysis/research. Course of lesser regret is the gray route 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Can we lock in the 12z HRRR? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Can we lock in the 12z HRRR? Already did 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 12z nam running at 6z 5/7/850 lows all tracked further S by a couple ticks to help NH/Ma border general vicinity significantly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 24 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: This is just not a S of Pike event. You can't say that 100 percent either. Even the Euro shows frozen down into CT. I feel there's lots on here Meh'ing anything now that doesn't show a foot plus. Lots of MA could easily be in for a good accumulation 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Can we lock in the 12z HRRR? S-W-E-E-T! Locked and loaded...FIRE! Liking the evolution to hopeful outcome for you's guys. ---------------- Meanwhile- mowing season has begun here. Time to break-out the 72" Ferris, all 10 acres. Million dollar property. Momma I'm coming home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 I wish COD had point-and-click soundings for the HRRR. TT is stuck at 33 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sled Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, Modfan2 said: I’ll take it to get the sand and salt crap off the roads! Pretty sure DOT would send em out to salt for rain at this point, wouldn't want to save money for any reason- That'd be silly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, radarman said: notice how the split in opinion seems to be function of latitude and longitude and which side of the r/s line you're on Ironically, no this wasn’t the case with my opinion. My only point was that I believe the GFS had the better idea from the get go with this system.,it was better with the strength of the block/confluence. And it had the right idea of not plowing the primary as far north/into Michigan, or as far west, like the Euro was showing Tuesday and early Wednesday. Just my take. But whatever, lm at 11.3” on the season, at least I made it to double digits. What a horrible season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Nam ULL weaker Then 6z as it crosses ILL/Indiana border but heights are a wee bit higher over NY ahead of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I wish COD had point-and-click soundings for the HRRR. TT is stuck at 33 hours Has happened quite a bit lately. Probably from all of us seeing the post and inundating their server lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Sled said: Pretty sure DOT would send em out to salt for rain at this point, wouldn't want to save money for any reason- That'd be silly They were doing that this morning in Simsbury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 NAM still sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Only hope is that maybe the low will slide east more Saturday morning if I am interpreting H5. But meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 SE ridge flexing a bit on the 12z Nam, This runs going to end up a few tics north of 06z it seems out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sled Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: They were doing that this morning in Simsbury Id rather them just give the employees the overtime to twiddle their thumbs than spread that crap all over the roads. I weep for my truck every time I have to drive around on this crap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: NAM still sucks. Let me guess, torched mid-levels and sleet line to Manchester? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 the differences at 42 hrs on the 12z NAM and 48 hrs on the 6z GFS are insane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 It has the primary in Detroit which means game over south of NH border. i'm not buying it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Let me guess, torched mid-levels and sleet line to Manchester? Primary stronger and further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Based on overnight trends, I'm setting my sights on breaking the biggest storm of the season of 3" weeeee. Fun to look at HRRR and GFS, but seasonal trends cannot be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 The NAM is tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Only thing I can see is maybe a better CCB perhaps like I mentioned earlier. lets see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Ray enjoying this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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