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Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event


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You can see the gfs has moved to the euro idea of a slower and stronger secondary system . If you scroll to Jeff’s animation . The low placement has been steadily moving WNW on the time stamp Jeff posted and the euro had that low Position slower and tight to Long Island first And has also adjusted slightly slower to its own idea 

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You can see the gfs has moved to the euro idea of a slower system . That is about clear as day  The low placement has been steadily moving WNW on the time stamp Jeff posted and the euro had that low Position slower and tight to Long Island first And has also adjusted slightly slower to its own idea 

I think snow maps screw up what synoptics show. Anyways great thump for ski areas. 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I think snow maps screw up what synoptics show. Anyways great thump for ski areas. 

I was looking at H5 when I was making the comparison. One reason I was scratching my head initially because euro was driving the ULL like into Chicago a couple days ago, lol. 


Im leaning euro/NAM from this point forward though. But if I’m wrong by only a little, then that’s a big sensible wx difference for MA. 

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Nah Wolfie and I are both on the wrong side. He's just hungry as a Wolf for a GFS win.

well, unless we pull a 0-1" here the Nam/Euro combo was a total bust 36-24 hrs ago.   But we could still pull a 0-1" I guess.  Those who know me know I typically hug the nam, except when it doesn't give me snow obv.

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8 minutes ago, radarman said:

notice how the split in opinion seems to be function of latitude and longitude and which side of the r/s line you're on

Yeah in the end, it doesn't matter how a model gets to point A or B, if it's wintry it's the model that showed snow (even if the SFC low was 150 miles off) that gets the win in the opinion.

If one model shows snow and one shows rain, everything else about it doesn't matter I guess... it can miss the low track or positioning, etc.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I was looking at H5 when I was making the comparison. One reason I was scratching my head initially because euro was driving the ULL like into Chicago a couple days ago, lol. 


Im leaning euro/NAM from this point forward though. But if I’m wrong by only a little, then that’s a big sensible wx difference for MA. 

Speaking of which if you look at last 4 euro cycles as ULL reaches ILL/Indiana border the notable change that began at 0z and continued at 6z is a much weaker ULL (it weakens faster/earlier )

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15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Speaking of which if you look at last 4 euro cycles as ULL reaches ILL/Indiana border the notable change that began at 0z and continued at 6z is a much weaker ULL (it weakens faster/earlier )

Yeah this has happened on most guidance which is what helps the secondary ML center form…it’s why even the most amped solutions previously are now showing the CCB forming…now where that sets up is the difference between a nuisance event and a legit solid warning snowfall. 
 

Im pretty skeptical near the pike at the moment, but I’d feel pretty good up by NH border. 

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