Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Euro was late to the party with this. Gfs was first to catch on and have a cutter. However it was then too cold. Euro has been better the last few days. 

72 hrs is when you start to really see what's going on. Euro been solid since then. This has happened a lot this year despite what people say.

[UnitedWx]

23 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Between today's event and Saturday, Euro has 10-14"+ for a good chunk of NH/ME.

This still has a good amount of snow in my area, where it showed nothing a couple days ago. Does this algorithm count sleet in accums? Obviously clown map mode applies regardless

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

72 hrs is when you start to really see what's going on. Euro been solid since then. This has happened a lot this year despite what people say.

To be fair, last storm was like 24 hours... maybe 36

[SouthCoastMA]

So I'm looking forward but don't see anything trackable on the OP runs. Unless we are just talking about potential..to which I say..it's March, time is running out. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dude just look at the animation Jeff posted.  If you are talking 4 or 5 days ago sure. Let it go bro. On to the 10th lol. Craptastic 08 style

Steve, I’m making my point, that’s all. and Others agree. And it wasn’t 4 days ago it was Tuesday and yesterday. I don’t care what Jeff shows, maybe it’s better for him in Maine, but not here.,the GFS had the better idea from the start. Now I’ll drop it. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

This is my point…GFS led the way, it wasn’t 100% right, but it was ahead of the Euro from the start. 

Congrats on winning at half time. Euro leads the league in comeback wins. Maybe it was 28-3 after 3 but what matters most is the final score.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

To be fair, last storm was like 24 hours... maybe 36

Thank you. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

So I'm looking forward but don't see anything trackable on the OP runs. Unless we are just talking about potential..to which I say..it's March, time is running out. 

Ensembles 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Congrats on winning at half time. Euro leads the league in comeback wins. Maybe it was 28-3 after 3 but what matters most is the final score.

Ok, look at it that way if you want. Euro was behind..period. 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Euro was late to the party with this. Gfs was first to catch on and have a cutter. However it was then too cold. Euro has been better the last few days. 

Agree. Look at how bad the euro looks if you go back to Feb 28th runs. If we are only starting from like 12z yesterday, then there’s been a middle compromise but if you go back a little further, euro has def caved more. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Steve, I’m making my point, that’s all. and Others agree. And it wasn’t 4 days ago it was Tuesday and yesterday. I don’t care what Jeff shows, maybe it’s better for him in Maine, but not here.,the GFS had the better idea from the start. Now I’ll drop it. 

Hotties in NMaine FTW

[dendrite]

Idc what the ops show at d7. Show your value in crunch time inside of 72hr

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I really see it as a pretty even march toward each other when you weigh the last 5 day period sort of equally . Those that saw the most sensible weather differences at the margins change with either model probably weigh those more than the wholesale changes for the New England area in entirety .

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Idc what the ops show at d7. Show your value in crunch time inside of 72hr

Thank you. Congrats Dendrite again. Welcome back to 2008

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Idc what the ops show at d7. Show your value in crunch time inside of 72hr

Exactly. That’s a bold move from the gfs last 24-36 hrs. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Idc what the ops show at d7. Show your value in crunch time inside of 72hr

These discussions are kind of pointless anyway with still 36-42 hours to go. 
 

I’ll say if we started from around 100 hours out, euro has caved more…if we start from 12z yesterday, it’s a lot more 50/50. Maybe it will be 60/40 e he o after 12z runs (starting from yesterday). 
 

From a larger scale discussion, euro isn’t dominating the medium range like it used to. It used to never lose to the GFS at day 4-5. Now it’s not weird at all if it does. It does seem to make its move more frequently inside 72 now. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agree. Look at how bad the euro looks if you go back to Feb 28th runs. If we are only starting from like 12z yesterday, then there’s been a middle compromise but if you go back a little further, euro has def caved more. 

Agree. I don’t know why folks can’t see that??? Mind boggling. It(Euro)had the wrong synoptic idea big time. Sure GFS moved some too, but it had the better synoptic idea period. 

[dryslot]

As far back as i can go.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hotties in NMaine FTW

Lol yup. Maybe Heading up next weekend, just in time to miss the big dog…? 

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Steve, I’m making my point, that’s all. and Others agree. And it wasn’t 4 days ago it was Tuesday and yesterday. I don’t care what Jeff shows, maybe it’s better for him in Maine, but not here.,the GFS had the better idea from the start. Now I’ll drop it. 

 Right, you don't care what it shows.  Your mind was made up two days ago.  

[SouthCoastMA]

My view is that the GFS has been decent in the mid range figuring out the general storm track, sometimes better/faster than the other models .but always seems to falter on the details within day 3. Not just this storm, but in the past couple years. 

[TalcottWx]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agree. Look at how bad the euro looks if you go back to Feb 28th runs. If we are only starting from like 12z yesterday, then there’s been a middle compromise but if you go back a little further, euro has def caved more. 

Thank you, I was beginning to question my own analysis of the modeling. Euro sucks lately

[Snowcrazed71]

16 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Enjoy the rain CT. 99% of CT will be above freezing for the duration of this. Not much to be excited about. We wait til next weekend. 

As I do agree this is not a snow event, maybe just two or three inches at most, what I don't agree that you're saying 99% of the state is rain. I watched two of the weather stations for Connecticut, which I'm sure you're familiar with and both are calling for change to rain and the shoreline probably up through mid-state. The Northern half of the state Will change to sleep and we could get a good accumulation of sleet, they're even saying. Could we change back to snow tomorrow? I'll be at light. 

I am hopeful for next Saturday, Sunday time frame. We're getting to the very end game now, so we'll see what happens for next weekend. Some of our biggest snow storms were mid-March. We shall see

[WinterWolf]

Just now, TalcottWx said:

Thank you, I was beginning to question my own analysis of the modeling. Euro sucks lately

Ya for sure. I don’t get the other idea, but whatever. 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol yup. Maybe Heading up next weekend, just in time to miss the big dog…? 

Or get smoked up there. Enjoy bro

[dendrite]

Different folks different strokes I guess. I just expect big errors on ops past d5-6. I just look for some semblance of the storm. But sure, you could find a time frame in the extended where the GFS maybe looked a little closer. But at that range you’re not making a detailed forecast…..”rain/snow showers”. I want the better accuracy when you need the deets. 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 Right, you don't care what it shows.  Your mind was made up two days ago.

ya took that the wrong way, and that’s fine. But we have Will seeing my point, and another MET as well. It was pretty bad coming into today, and the GFS had the better overall idea. 
 

I’m done.,moving on. 

 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

As I do agree this is not a snow event, maybe just two or three inches at most, what I don't agree that you're saying 99% of the state is rain. I watched two of the weather stations for Connecticut, which I'm sure you're familiar with and both are calling for change to rain and the shoreline probably up through mid-state. The Northern half of the state Will change to sleep and we could get a good accumulation of sleet, they're even saying. Could we change back to snow tomorrow? I'll be at light. 

I am hopeful for next Saturday, Sunday time frame. We're getting to the very end game now, so we'll see what happens for next weekend. Some of our biggest snow storms were mid-March. We shall see

Yes it's a sleeper for sure

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Ya for sure. I don’t get the other idea, but whatever. 

The starting points matter. If your starting on Feb 28th 12z (so like 90-96 hours out), that’s when the euro was driving the ULL almost into Chicago. It’s come well southeast since then. 
 

But if we start at 12z yesterday, then the compromise of a lot more 50/50…maybe even slightly in favor of euro. 

[CoastalWx]

LOL. Whatever you want to believe. I’ll go euro and nam for this one until I’m proven otherwise.