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Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event


Typhoon Tip
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6 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Overall, pretty consistent. Yes, a bit warmer. 

No it’s been a gradual capitulation to warmer guidance. 
 

Look at the SE ridge, sliding west and stronger.

This is now consistent with other guidance that has significant easterly fetch out ahead, with surface highs to our east.

image.thumb.gif.f31f21af55a7647920a25494312b1a8d.gif

 

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5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

No it’s been a gradual capitulation to warmer guidance. 
 

Look at the SE ridge, sliding west and stronger.

This is now consistent with other guidance that has significant easterly fetch out ahead, with surface highs to our east.

image.thumb.gif.f31f21af55a7647920a25494312b1a8d.gif

 

That's a much better look at it, thank you.

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6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

No it’s been a gradual capitulation to warmer guidance. 
 

Look at the SE ridge, sliding west and stronger.

This is now consistent with other guidance that has significant easterly fetch out ahead, with surface highs to our east.

image.thumb.gif.f31f21af55a7647920a25494312b1a8d.gif

 

I had mention this yesterday i believe that there's competing forces with the -NAO trying suppress but you had the SE ridge trying to flex which has won out this year with the majority of these, If it wasn't for the - NAO, This one would have been another cutter thru the lakes.

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Yea that’s classic CCB type output. I don’t see the mechanics for that at all. I think we’ll see a “back end” more like Tuesday’s; IVT-ish.

Right, except that we all get the first round this time, instead of our area missing out. I don't by the full-tilt Miller B, either.

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I’m leaning toward the current the euro/NAM too right now. I need to see a another solid tick toward GFS today to convince me otherwise. 

They’ve def come south since earlier yesterday, but in my area, I really need the GFS to win that battle by 70/30 or 80/20. 50/50 won’t really cut it here if I’m looking for warning snows. 

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10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea that’s classic CCB type output. I don’t see the mechanics for that at all. I think we’ll see a “back end” more like Tuesday’s; IVT-ish.

That's NNE and more qpf than last storm and they pulled off 12 to 20 last storm. East inflow everyone knows the rules.

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

That's NNE and more qpf than last storm and they pulled off 12 to 20 last storm. East inflow everyone knows the rules.

Wow didn’t realize 12-20 during last event.

well then sure. Different world up there in many ways. 

I guess the main point is that’s not CCB driven.

 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m leaning toward the current the euro/NAM too right now. I need to see a another solid tick toward GFS today to convince me otherwise. 

They’ve def come south since earlier yesterday, but in my area, I really need the GFS to win that battle by 70/30 or 80/20. 50/50 won’t really cut it here if I’m looking for warning snows. 

:(

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m leaning toward the current the euro/NAM too right now. I need to see a another solid tick toward GFS today to convince me otherwise. 

They’ve def come south since earlier yesterday, but in my area, I really need the GFS to win that battle by 70/30 or 80/20. 50/50 won’t really cut it here if I’m looking for warning snows. 

Save a horse 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z euro def just came a tick south. CCB looks really good for E MA north of pike. 

Was just noting that. There’s also a blob of convection offshore that may factor in in terms of the low tucking into LI or offshore. 

 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Was just noting that. There’s also a blob of convection offshore that may factor in in terms of the low tucking into LI or offshore. 

 

There’s like 2 diff things to watch. Any leading vort max will help with front end thump…06z euro actually looked a touch worse on this part….then, the next part is where MLs try and close off…06z was def a little bit south of 00z on this part. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s like 2 diff things to watch. Any leading vort max will help with front end thump…06z euro actually looked a touch worse on this part….then, the next part is where MLs try and close off…06z was def a little bit south of 00z on this part. 

Yep agreed.

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