Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event


Typhoon Tip
 Share

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Overall, pretty consistent. Yes, a bit warmer. 

No it’s been a gradual capitulation to warmer guidance. 
 

Look at the SE ridge, sliding west and stronger.

This is now consistent with other guidance that has significant easterly fetch out ahead, with surface highs to our east.

image.thumb.gif.f31f21af55a7647920a25494312b1a8d.gif

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

No it’s been a gradual capitulation to warmer guidance. 
 

Look at the SE ridge, sliding west and stronger.

This is now consistent with other guidance that has significant easterly fetch out ahead, with surface highs to our east.

image.thumb.gif.f31f21af55a7647920a25494312b1a8d.gif

 

That's a much better look at it, thank you.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

No it’s been a gradual capitulation to warmer guidance. 
 

Look at the SE ridge, sliding west and stronger.

This is now consistent with other guidance that has significant easterly fetch out ahead, with surface highs to our east.

image.thumb.gif.f31f21af55a7647920a25494312b1a8d.gif

 

I had mention this yesterday i believe that there's competing forces with the -NAO trying suppress but you had the SE ridge trying to flex which has won out this year with the majority of these, If it wasn't for the - NAO, This one would have been another cutter thru the lakes.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Yea that’s classic CCB type output. I don’t see the mechanics for that at all. I think we’ll see a “back end” more like Tuesday’s; IVT-ish.

Right, except that we all get the first round this time, instead of our area missing out. I don't by the full-tilt Miller B, either.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m leaning toward the current the euro/NAM too right now. I need to see a another solid tick toward GFS today to convince me otherwise. 

They’ve def come south since earlier yesterday, but in my area, I really need the GFS to win that battle by 70/30 or 80/20. 50/50 won’t really cut it here if I’m looking for warning snows. 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea that’s classic CCB type output. I don’t see the mechanics for that at all. I think we’ll see a “back end” more like Tuesday’s; IVT-ish.

That's NNE and more qpf than last storm and they pulled off 12 to 20 last storm. East inflow everyone knows the rules.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

That's NNE and more qpf than last storm and they pulled off 12 to 20 last storm. East inflow everyone knows the rules.

Wow didn’t realize 12-20 during last event.

well then sure. Different world up there in many ways. 

I guess the main point is that’s not CCB driven.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m leaning toward the current the euro/NAM too right now. I need to see a another solid tick toward GFS today to convince me otherwise. 

They’ve def come south since earlier yesterday, but in my area, I really need the GFS to win that battle by 70/30 or 80/20. 50/50 won’t really cut it here if I’m looking for warning snows. 

:(

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m leaning toward the current the euro/NAM too right now. I need to see a another solid tick toward GFS today to convince me otherwise. 

They’ve def come south since earlier yesterday, but in my area, I really need the GFS to win that battle by 70/30 or 80/20. 50/50 won’t really cut it here if I’m looking for warning snows. 

Save a horse 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Was just noting that. There’s also a blob of convection offshore that may factor in in terms of the low tucking into LI or offshore. 

 

There’s like 2 diff things to watch. Any leading vort max will help with front end thump…06z euro actually looked a touch worse on this part….then, the next part is where MLs try and close off…06z was def a little bit south of 00z on this part. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s like 2 diff things to watch. Any leading vort max will help with front end thump…06z euro actually looked a touch worse on this part….then, the next part is where MLs try and close off…06z was def a little bit south of 00z on this part. 

Yep agreed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...