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Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event


Typhoon Tip
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Looks like we are seeing a meet in the middle.

GFS bumped north with QPF, Euro bumped south with thermals.  Both now take the low near Long Island, GFS fairly significant move north with low pressure position.

GEFS been going steadily north tick by tick last 24 hours with QPF.

Today’s 00z:

A0842133-2093-4D14-9690-2EE67789FF6E.thumb.png.e9e676ac4bf0e4486fc3f8a31df5df60.png

Yesterday’s 00z:

2AF88567-A58D-4176-8D3E-1F3731A9656F.thumb.png.dfe0a726315252be798c2da4ea5b3062.png
 

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s tough for me to buy the GFS. Still lean more to NAM/Euro. I’ll need today to change that. 

What makes you lean toward EURO/NAM, I remember Will saying he had heavy lean to GFS/EURO until about today if I remember correctly. NAM just appears to be 100% out to lunch, no?

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41 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

What makes you lean toward EURO/NAM, I remember Will saying he had heavy lean to GFS/EURO until about today if I remember correctly. NAM just appears to be 100% out to lunch, no?

I mean in the sense that they are warmer. Not necessarily all in on one particular piece of guidance or the other. 
 

Basically 12z has to prove to me that there is a reason to lean colder. Antecedent airmass sucks. It’s not that cold. So, we’ll need a further south look. 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean in the sense that they are warmer. Not necessarily all in on one particular piece of guidance or the other. 
 

Basically 12z has to prove to me that there is a reason to lean colder. Antecedent airmass sucks. It’s not that cold. So, we’ll need a further south look. 

I was just thinking how mild it was last night... MVL up here was 32-34F most of the night (actually it got up to 36F from 1-2am).  Sure there will be CAA behind this current system but it's an interesting observation that for those that snow it might just marginally get there.  Then again, that's all it has to do, get to 32F or lower.

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean in the sense that they are warmer. Not necessarily all in on one particular piece of guidance or the other. 
 

Basically 12z has to prove to me that there is a reason to lean colder. Antecedent airmass sucks. It’s not that cold. So, we’ll need a further south look. 

Essentially we want a colder move by the warmer models, in order to convince you. Makes sense now.

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