Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

Pete Bouchard likening this to last storm.  Saying east wind will crush coastal Boston.  No chance at good snows east coast of MA according to him.  He is all in on warm models 

What an idiot....totally different from last storm.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Euro definitely better with front end and cooler on sat compared to 12z…then gets a late ccb going from Ray to Jeff.

[weathafella]

Euro about the same.  Shows the CCB potential.   Too bad you don't get Euro soundings (I think you'd have to subscribe to pivotal paywall?). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

Enjoy your rain

While reading the thread you started for it highlighting blizzard potential a week ago.  You are the most worthless poster I have seen on here in my 17 years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Euro definitely better with front end and cooler on sat compared to 12z…then gets a late ccb going from Ray to Jeff.

 

Just now, weathafella said:

Euro about the same.  Shows the CCB potential.   Too bad you don't get Euro soundings (I think you'd have to subscribe to pivotal paywall?). 

Lol

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Lol

Well we all look for our house and mine was similar...lol

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Lol

We’re obviously looking in our BY’s but it was noticeable cooler/better for CT. 

[George001]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

While reading the thread you started for it highlighting blizzard potential a week ago.  You are the most worthless poster I have seen on here in 17 years.

Don’t act like you didn’t buy in, you claimed on your blog that storm had the potential to be one of the biggest storms of the decade. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

Don’t act like you didn’t buy in, you claimed on your blog that storm had the potential to be one of the biggest storms of the decade. 

If it had phased, yes. I also stated it could end up as a typical winter storm if it didn't. That is different from starting a thread advertising it as a blizzard a week out. Take a look at my first actual forecast.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

0z:

 

12z:

[Rtd208]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Euro definitely better with front end and cooler on sat compared to 12z…then gets a late ccb going from Ray to Jeff.

 

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Euro about the same.  Shows the CCB potential.   Too bad you don't get Euro soundings (I think you'd have to subscribe to pivotal paywall?). 

 

[TheSnowman]

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

12/9/05

Don’t anyone DARE, DARE mention the Greatest Small Storm of all-time.  
 

Especially since I already Missed the 2 BEST Small Storms SINCE 12/09/05 of February 2017 and March 2018.  I Ain’t missing Another.  
 

Edit: Oh Right!  I caught the Buzzsaw late in January 2011, but Missed the Blizzard of 2011 2 weeks earlier, which was Also a More Power Punching Short Storm that dropped 20”+ in a short time.  So the 3 Best since 12/09/05 I’ve Missed.  

[JoeSnowBOS]

That is a southward shift

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Clear difference. Jerry must be hitting the sauce tonight. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

That is a southward shift

Lot of local OCMs going to be pedaling. 

[George001]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If it had phased, yes. That is different from starting a thread advertising it as such. Take a look at my first actual forecast.

Fair enough, I agree that I never should have started the thread. It is clear to me at this point that I should be leaning warm until proven otherwise, not calling for cold and snow non stop like I used to. Going by your posts here it appeared that you were on board for phasing until late in the game. 

[Snowcrazed71]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

0z:

 

12z:

That's a noticeable shift south. I mentioned earlier about the windshield wiper effect. We may see the other models come back south again, or they may take north again. I think at this point it's safe to say that Connecticut at least the top half we'll see Frozen precipitation. Some snow and then some sleet... 

I'm never up this late, but we're at the emergency vet with our cat ( she decided to chase one of the other cats down the stairs and went ahead first right into the wall ). So to take my mind up things I've been reading and watching what's going on tonight. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

That's a noticeable shift south. I mentioned earlier about the windshield wiper effect. We may see the other models come back south again, or they may take north again. I think at this point it's safe to say that Connecticut at least the top half we'll see Frozen precipitation. Some snow and then some sleet... 

I'm never up this late, but we're at the emergency vet with our cat ( she decided to chase one of the other cats down the stairs and went ahead first right into the wall ). So to take my mind up things I've been reading and watching what's going on tonight. 

Hope it works out for your fam. Yea. Gfs came warmer/north for us while euro made a good jump south almost so much that they’ve practically criss crossed now lol. I’ll look in the morning. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, George001 said:

Fair enough, I agree that I never should have started the thread. It is clear to me at this point that I should be leaning warm until proven otherwise, not calling for cold and snow non stop like I used to. Going by your posts here it appeared that you were on board for phasing until late in the game. 

I admit I jumped the gun on here bc I am expecting a big March...not really on the blog. Chatter on a forum with long time friends is different from an actual forecast...blogwise, I just alluded to the high upside. But looking back, I should have been more reserved given MJO is still in phase 7, which supports WAR shearing it. 

My First Call was tame...I knew it was meh by Thursday night.

 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I admit I jumped the gun on here bc I am expecting a big March...not really on the blog. Chatter on a forum with long time friends is different from an actual forecast...blogwise, I just alluded to the high upside. But looking back, I should have been more reserved given MJO is still in phase 7, which supports WAR shearing it. 

My First Call was tame...I knew it was meh by about a week ago Thursday night.

 

We'll... Maybe next weekend has a shot at having "BIG" potential. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

0z:

 

12z:

AIT.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

We'll... Maybe next weekend has a shot at having "BIG" potential. 

I'm still not TOTALLY sold on Miller B transition in time....could still see more SWFE, but its looking better in that regard. What I have been sold on is a warning event NOP since yesterday AM when I examined things for first call.

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm still not TOTALLY sold on Miller B transition in time....could still see more SWFE, but its looking better in that regard. What I have been sold on is a warning event NOP since yesterday AM when I examined things for first call.

Definitely an interesting storm to track. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pretty good agreement between EURO and GFS now:

Euro caved.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Definitely an interesting storm to track. 

Totally.

Well timed adjustment by the EURO about 5 minutes after I had called Bouchard an idiot.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pretty good agreement between EURO and GFS now:

Euro caved.

 

GFS is a bit faster, which accounts for larger diff over CT.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[George001]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pretty good agreement between EURO and GFS now:

Euro caved.

 

Yeah it looks like we are getting closer to a consensus. The gfs has been pretty good with this one so far, even though I highly doubt I’m getting anywhere near a foot like it’s saying (even half a foot is a big stretch). It did have the right idea with the storm coming more north early on while the Euro was all over the place. Regardless of what happens with this one though, the mid month period could be a fun one to track with the MJO going into 8 at a high amplitude. Even if it doesn’t pan out, I bet we will see some wild solutions on the models (No, I’m not going to start a thread nor will I call for a blizzard. I’m done with that fantasy shit).

[Henry's Weather]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I hate how sobering that product is

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is an excerpt of the analysis from my First Call post Late Monday night/early Tuesday AM that told me the EURO was full of shit.

Synoptic Layout:

A vigorous piece of energy is poised to eject out of the southwestern quadrant of the region on Friday in begin its journey northeast, as depicted below on the GFS guidance.

 

 

The European has modeled the initial intensity of the system very similarly to that of the GFS.

 

 

It is at this early juncture where the discrepancies begin, as the GEM guidance already has the system modeled significantly less intense by early Friday AM than the GFS and Euro.

 

 

Given the fact that the GEM is in outlier, and the GFS and EURO have superior initialization schemes, it is safe to assume that the GEM is likely in error in this respect. This is important to remember moving forward in the forecast.

By just after midnight on early Saturday AM, the GFS has translated the system off to the north east to a position near Lake Erie in a weakened state, as it begins veering more to the east northeast. Intuitively, this make sense when considering the wall of confluent flow that the system encounters, which is resultant from the potent negative NAO block-50/50 low dipole that is in place downstream stretching from Greenland down into the north atlantic. But pay close attention to the intensity of the west atlantic ridge (WAR) on the GFS as we begin to assess the other guidance.

 

 

The European guidance at the very same time frame during the predawn hours of Saturday, has the low in the same position as the GFS, but significantly more potent and still traveling to the northeast and into southeastern Canada, seemingly undeterred by the aforementioned north atlantic road block. This makes little sense, especially considering that the WAR on the EURO is even stronger than it is on the GFS, which in theory should cause an even greater shearing influence between it and the NAO, 50/50 dipole to its north. Additionally, over amplification is a known bias of this guidance that was just observed with respect to the current system in the medium range. The EURO likely has the correct idea with respect to the stronger WAR because the GEM has it modeled very similarly.

 

 

 

  It is not out of the ordinary that the GFS is a weak outlier with respect to the WAR because it has a bias of being too northern stream dominant. Additionally, the MJO is currently in phase 7.

 

 

Phase 7 of the MJO favors a strong WAR, which lends additional credence to the fact the GFS is in error in this respect.  

 

Thus the GEM is likely correct in modeling the system as succumbing to the confluent flow faster than other guidance, except for the fact that the GEM is is likely initializing the system too weak initially. This would lend credence to the GFS' middle ground position if it were not for the fact that it is likely under assessing the intensity of the WAR. However, the general track and thermal profile of the GEM can be accepted as the favored solution at this time given the fact that its under initialized intensity of the shortwave is essentially cancelled out by the under initialized strength of the WAR on the GFS depiction. 

That being said, this does not mean that the GEM is not currently over zealous with its QPF forecast, which must be accounted for given the shearing influence of the confluent flow that it encounters on approach to the region.