Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Much improved thump on Ukie for all

[ORH_wxman]

Nice move on the Ukie toward GFS. Not all the way but a good step. 

[ineedsnow]

Ukie looks a little better but not like the GFS

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

22 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Imagine what this place will look like during the next 4 or 5 model runs as we put every tick north or south under the microscope?

People often on here read into such debates as if civilized people can’t have reasonable disagreements. What separates the night crew from the daytime circus is we disagree without the nauseating drama. Daytime is full of meme’s, I told you so’s, and often lacks any analysis…which I fall victim to and do myself lol. 

[ORH_wxman]

One thing most guidance had tonight regardless of whether they trended north or south was a better thump on the front. A little extra vorticity getting pushed out east of the main ULL back in the Midwest. 

[Snowcrazed71]

Funny thing with this system .... Things can easily keep trending north, but.. they can also trend south again... We are experiencing the " Windshield wiper " effect. We have all of tomorrow to see which way this goes. I'm not sure any of us can say for sure who is getting what..... Especially on the northern and southern sides of this impending storm. 

Kind of a fun system to track to see which way it leans by Friday. We shall see

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I don’t see much track shift at all on 925/850 on Ukie . 
 

Also temps in NE mass / SE Nh mass identical for sat am to early pm period . Just 0z was a shade faster with secondary development track and better initial thump 

[ORH_wxman]

Anyways, time to raid the edibles @RUNNAWAYICEBERG so I don’t convince myself to stay up for the euro. Gotta save that for tomorrow night if we are still tracking higher potential. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I don’t see much track shift at all on 925/850

on Ukie . Also temps in NE mass / SE Nh mass identical for sat am to early pm period . Just 0z was a shade faster with secondary development track and better initial thump 

Yeah look at the flow in midlevels and you’ll see it’s more easterly even if temps are similar. That’s a good thing for increasing thump and of course trying to get a CCB going. Still need a little more south for the CCB goods which is why I’m skeptical on them but a stronger thump on the front end seems within reach. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Anyways, time to raid the edibles @RUNNAWAYICEBERG so I don’t convince myself to stay up for the euro. Gotta save that for tomorrow night if we are still tracking higher potential. 

Nice! I’m down in ATL for work now so no edibles for me until I return which is currently 10pm friday night into BDL…which I doubt happens.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah look at the flow in midlevels and you’ll see it’s more easterly even if temps are similar. That’s a good thing for increasing thump and of course trying to get a CCB going. Still need a little more south for the CCB goods which is why I’m skeptical on them but a stronger thump on the front end seems within reach. 

I would be excited in S NH elevations ..if I lived 15 Miles west or NW at 8-900 feet I’d be feeling good for 6-8” +. I see a hike to miller state park being a decent possibility Saturday . If that E inflow gets established 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nice! I’m down in ATL for work now so no edibles for me until I return which is currently 10pm friday night into BDL…which I doubt happens.

Ugh so you might be watching from Atlanta? Hopefully you can hop an earlier flight. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I would be excited in S NH elevations ..if I lived 15 Miles west or NW at 8-900 feet I’d be feeling good for 6-8” +

What is your elevation?

 

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ugh so you might be watching from Atlanta? Hopefully you can hop an earlier flight. 

I can’t so it’s either razor thin arrival on a snowy runway or a big delay/cancellation. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Ok whatever. I disagree 

I stopped reading his posts a long time ago...unreadable. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What is your elevation?

 

I can’t so it’s either razor thin arrival on a snowy runway or a delay/cancellation. 

My elevation is Nil / Nada Merrimack valley 

200’ you run basically due west of me and it’s like that till you go from like 350 to 1100 over 3 miles (15 miles west of me ) and it’s crush city on many events 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I would be excited in S NH elevations ..if I lived 15 Miles west or NW at 8-900 feet I’d be feeling good for 6-8” +. I see a hike to miller state park being a decent possibility Saturday . If that E inflow gets established 

I feel great IMBY for 6"+.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

My elevation is Nil / Nada Merrimack valley 

Ah. I see why you chase then but you’re in a good spot for short drives on elevation dependent storms.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ah. I see why you chase then but you’re in a good spot for short drives on elevation dependent storms.

I chase because I’m very very sick . I mean leaving Xmas eve am to drive 7 hours  lol 

[weathafella]

Well I’ll certainly be up for the euro.  But I aim to be out of bed before 11 tomorrow morning.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I chase because I’m very very sick . I mean leaving Xmas eve am to drive 7 hours  lol 

You’re all of us but single without children.  If we were in that state we’d probably rent a big bus.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I chase because I’m very very sick . I mean leaving Xmas eve am lol 

Lol. I mean…yes, you are. But that was a special one while Christmas is guaranteed ever year. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, weathafella said:

You’re all of us but single without children.  If we were in that state we’d probably rent a big bus.

I plan to chase a big OES event at some point with my brother, when our kids are a little older. It’s on our bucket list.

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I chase because I’m very very sick . I mean leaving Xmas eve am to drive 7 hours  lol 

That was truly an all timer. Once in a lifetime type impact for a region. It’s a tremendous accomplishment to successfully chase something as dangerous as that. 

[The 4 Seasons]

HRRR looks pretty damn cold and S in it's long term clown range fwiw, similar to the RGEM

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That was truly an all timer. Once in a lifetime type impact for a region. It’s a tremendous accomplishment to successfully chase something as dangerous as that. 

Not to distract from thread as we are waiting for euro , but I want to do a detailed write up of that chase , it’s very hard to describe what I felt like I experienced in the last 15 miles Of that drive and I recall it vividly , most all the details  and without hyperbole I was extremely lucky to arrive and I did not appreciate the conditions I would be  encountering that early in storm and all the detours that made my arrival time (later) more treacherous. 

[weathafella]

Uncle looked good but it always has the drunk look.   I mean 12Z is Noon in UK so unc has a few martinis with lunch, sleeps it off mid afternoon and hits the single malt around dinner in time for 0Z.   Nice solution for us but UKMET is not to be relied upon imho.

[Henry's Weather]

17 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Not to distract from thread as we are waiting for euro , but I want to do a detailed write up of that chase , it’s very hard to describe what I felt like I experienced in the last 15 miles Of that drive and I recall it vividly , most all the details  and without hyperbole I was extremely lucky to arrive and I did not appreciate the conditions I would be  encountering that early in storm and all the detours that made my arrival time (later) more treacherous. 

Which storm is this?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Which storm is this?

Buffalo Xmas 

[JoeSnowBOS]

Pete Bouchard likening this to last storm.  Saying east wind will crush coastal Boston.  No chance at good snows east coast of MA according to him.  He is all in on warm models 

[George001]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I stopped reading his posts a long time ago...unreadable. 

Enjoy your rain