Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m sure if it didn’t hold firm for YOU, you’d say the same. Let’s not pretend it did not nudge north with mid level warmth and the surface though.  

I think that’s the biggest thing, it looks fine for him and many still, but on the line, it was a bad move.

It’s less pronounced in se Mass, but if floods CT especially with warm area before the CCB takes over 

[ORH_wxman]

I always love the systems where we sweat like 8 mile shifts. 

[Henry's Weather]

That CCB signal is steadily becoming stronger on every run

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Canadian several ticks warmer.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I always love the systems where we sweat like 8 mile shifts. 

We need to see euro and at some point drunk uncle close the gap 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

We need to see euro and at some point drunk uncle close the gap 

Yeah agreed. 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I always love the systems where we sweat like 8 mile shifts. 

I know!  Luke’s comparison map was literally that.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I always love the systems where we sweat like 8 mile shifts. 

That was a lot more than a 8 mile shift.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, weathafella said:

I know!  Luke’s comparison map was literally that.  

It wasn’t, but who’s counting.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m sure if it didn’t hold firm for YOU, you’d say the same. Let’s not pretend it did not nudge north with mid level warmth and the surface though.  

Yea, its a little warmer....it essentially held serve, though....again, its a big difference for those right on the line.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That was a lot more than a 8 mile shift.

I’m with you, too much weed in here tonight I think . Or denial, or both.

[George001]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That was a lot more than a 8 mile shift.

Yeah, low location was about 30 miles north. These little north ticks matter, they aren’t just noise. I wouldn’t be confident at all in even getting plowable never mind a foot for anywhere in SNE.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I know!  Luke’s comparison map was literally that.  

Lol get your map out. 850 0c line along north shore of LI at 18z compared to running it north of the merritt in CT at 0z is not 8 miles lol.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That was a lot more than a 8 mile shift.

Ok 15?   Not much to me.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The Canadian also laughs the gfs CCB idea

[wxsniss]

Yikes didn't mean to set off a semantic debate lol...

I did say it "ticked warmer". "Hold firm" meaning there was no wholesale jump north to match the Euro. Some of this is no doubt noise too.

But I get the nail-biting on the margins. I've been there and not discounting that I'll be there tomorrow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m with you, too much weed in here tonight I think . Or denial, or both.

Or maybe it doesn't matter to me if the H85 0c line moves 3 blocks north.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The Canadian also laughs the gfs CCB idea

I actually thought it tried to show it as only cmc can.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Ok 15?   Not much to me.

Try 30 miles but hey it doesn’t matter up there…yet.

[78Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The Canadian also laughs the gfs CCB idea

Is that the same Canadian that just yesterday had over 20" in many areas of SNE, including my backyard?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That was a lot more than a 8 mile shift.

I was being hyperbolic but the end result was very similar outside of an extremely narrow zone. It’s basically well inside the margin of error on a 54-60 hour prog. 
 

Regardless, it doesn’t matter. Many runs to go. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I actually thought it tried to show it as only cmc can.

Funny thing was RGEM was quite a bit colder than 12z. Usually GGEM follows the little cousin’s trend. 

[George001]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Ok 15?   Not much to me.

Even if it was only 15, we get steady ticks north for the next 2 days and all of a sudden you realize….. wait a sec, how did the low end up over Concord? Those small ticks add up to 100+ miles over just a couple days, that’s what happened in March 2017. Just a tick north here, a tick north there and all of a sudden the low went inland. 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Even if it was only 15, we get steady ticks north for the next 2 days and all of a sudden you realize….. wait a sec, how did the low end up over Concord? Those small ticks add up to 100+ miles over just a couple days, that’s what happened in March 2017. Just a tick north here, a tick north there and all of a sudden the low went inland.

Ok whatever. I disagree 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Ok whatever. I disagree 

When you disagree with George, that’s always a good thing. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, its a little warmer....it essentially held serve, though....again, its a big difference for those right on the line.

That’s a better illustration. Even those under 0c went up several ticks. Kev was -5, now -2. Same for TBlizz.

It did held serve for snowfall pike north, agree. I never debated that though.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Try 30 miles but hey it doesn’t matter up there…yet.

Luke , I looked close, I do agree that it was not a desired shift and that yes it was About 30 miles at your longitude . 
 

I first was just looking at the initial thump as that is a big piece for the accumulation puzzle imo for those in SNE , and especially for CT folks 

If we are counting on a lobe here or there or a ULL stretching East just in time it’s prob not High confidence unless multiple models show that sort of a occurrence 

[dryslot]

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Luke , I looked close, I do agree that it was not a desired shift and that yes it was About 30 miles at your longitude . 
 

I first was just looking at the initial thump as that is a big piece or the accumulation puzzle imo for those in SNE 

No worries man. This isn’t a snow fight lol. Just calling it how I see it. I probably shouldn’t have said some need to check their eyesight but I’m gangsta like that. I’m Happy the region is tracking again though.
 

0z did look thumpier on TT, yea, but I looked at the sounding and it’s not that great. I’m not sure I believe the better 10:1 clown map as a result. Then again, I suck at reading soundings. 
 

 

[78Blizzard]

Imagine what this place will look like during the next 4 or 5 model runs as we put every tick north or south under the microscope?