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Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event


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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It gives a better front end thump down to west central CT 

Yeah it may have ended up north of 18z by Saturday, but the way it gets there is important. There was a stronger vort lobe sticking east so we got a really good thump…and the CCB was very strong again this run. 

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Just now, 8611Blizz said:

Drops 18" on Boston. Tonight tv mets might make adjustments?

Need to see more guidance on board. I’d start feeling pretty good though up by Ray’s hood over to S NH and N ORH County. 

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The 850 low went from far  SW CT To a S end of Nantucket . Very rare track . 

Yeah and I don’t trust it to make that track so I want to see this a little further south off to the west as we get closer to feel good about it. 

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I would not call it holding firm overall but if you want to say pike north holds firm on big snow potential, sure.

It held firm for all intents and purposes...its just that those right on the line obsess over every modeled gravity wave that impacts snowfall output.

You notice all of the people that are arguing it didn't hold serve live in CT and se MA.

Screen Shot 2023-03-01 at 11.01.37 PM.png

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It held firm for all intents and purposes...its just that those right on the line obsess over every modeled gravity wave that impacts snowfall output.

You notice all of the people that are arguing it didn't hold serve live in CT and se MA.

Screen Shot 2023-03-01 at 11.01.37 PM.png

Right. Game of inches and ticks down here. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It held firm for all intents and purposes...its just that those right on the line obsess over every modeled gravity wave that impacts snowfall output.

You notice all of the people that are arguing it didn't hold serve live in CT and se MA.

Screen Shot 2023-03-01 at 11.01.37 PM.png

I mean, by definition, if it’s different, it didn’t hold serve, no?

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It held firm for all intents and purposes...its just that those right on the line obsess over every modeled gravity wave that impacts snowfall output.

You notice all of the people that are arguing it didn't hold serve live in CT and se MA.

Screen Shot 2023-03-01 at 11.01.37 PM.png

I’m sure if it didn’t hold firm for YOU, you’d say the same. Let’s not pretend it did not nudge north with mid level warmth and the surface though.  

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7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

There was a definite haircut south of the pike. 

Yep, that’s how it starts. A little haircut here and there, then by the time the storm is on our doorstep everything trends towards the NAM.

 

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

18z:
gfs_T850_neus_12.png

0z:

gfs_T850_neus_11.png

Its not just a clown map hallucination, the low itself took a decent jog north from 18z. If anything, with how much more north the low was I’m surprised the haircut wasn’t bigger south of the pike. A couple more ticks like that and all of a sudden the low is over western MA.

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