Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

In SE mass yes you likely will be , all available guidance and forecasts say yes . 

Regression is a bitch.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Regression is a bitch.

My young weenie spirit was almost broke growing up there . Seeing dec 92 give me 3” and March 93 flip to rain and leave a 3” glacier . I was basically defeated lol

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Regression is a bitch.

Glad we’re getting it out of the way this year. You’ve really smoked some with your 20 something inches.

back to regularly scheduled programming next winter 

[kdxken]

20 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Always check first before assuming she doesn’t.

You first.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

My young weenie spirit was almost broke growing up there . Seeing dec 92 give me 3” and March 93 flip to rain and leave a 3” glacier . I was basically defeated lol

Gfs is close here, would t take much for that to be a nice storm, but yeah, rest needs work 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Let’s see what the freakin nam decides To do here for entertainment 

[dryslot]

Just now, kdxken said:

You first.

Tough telling these days what may be under the hood.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Glad we’re getting it out of the way this year. You’ve really smoked some with your 20 something inches.

back to regularly scheduled programming next winter 

We'll see about that....there is a reason you average like 20" less than I do.

[Cmass495]

[CoastalWx]

It is a bitch. 

[wxsniss]

Fwiw hour 36 (and may not be worth anything), using the test of the ULL placement in Arkansas vs. Missouri at 12z Friday... 0z NAM looks just as north and amped as 18z run... 

[ROOSTA]

Makes no sense complaining about something one has no control over. As in this comment and those that lament over snowfall it's really futile. Should be plus/minus on amounts, best guess opinion on model output. Take it like a man!
Regardless of what transpires here on out the season is lost, an OFF year.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It is a bitch. 

He is a better spot for high end events, but it's much more feast or famine.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Another tick though and it’s a 4-6” snow/ip/snow event for wolfie.

This is likely a sleet / ice event for much of CT

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He is a better spot for high end events, but it's much more feast or famine.

Yeah, last year is a pretty good example of that. I pulled 3/4 of climo in one event. The rest was kind of meh.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

This is likely a sleet / ice event for much of CT

As Will mentioned earlier, it looks more sleet than ice, but I think many would take either way

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

As Will mentioned earlier, it looks more sleet than ice, but I think many would take either way

Unless globals pumps  in a bump south tonight.. this is like 1-2” snow / sleet to zr statewide in CT rain along coast . With perhaps a change back to snow Sat AM

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, last year is a pretty good example of that. I pulled 3/4 of climo in one event. The rest was kind of meh.

That’s what I think of your climo, ha. It’s either 0” or 12”+ events.  Which is why I’d never count you guys out for not having an ok winter.  Percentage wise of snowfall, you guys can make up serious ground with one system.

[ORH_wxman]

NAM looks really zonked again. So it won’t be that model caving at 00z

[HoarfrostHubb]

And the NAM led the way…

(not buying it)

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

That’s what I think of your climo, ha. It’s either 0” or 12”+ events.  Which is why I’d never count you guys out for not having an ok winter.  Percentage wise of snowfall, you guys can make up serious ground with one system.

It’s been like that lately but not usually the case. Been a strange last 5 seasons.  Plenty of decent events in 20-21 and even 18-19. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Nam gonna need a harder right turn 

[wxsniss]

 

8 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Fwiw hour 36 (and may not be worth anything), using the test of the ULL placement in Arkansas vs. Missouri at 12z Friday... 0z NAM looks just as north and amped as 18z run... 

And that propagates further downstream... by hour 45, 0z NAM is still in Indiana while 18z GFS was shooting east in Iowa

[George001]

It’s getting close enough to the storm that I’m going to take a stab at it and make a forecast. My initial thoughts of 4-6 inches looks like it was too aggressive.
 

southern NH/VT: 2-4 inches before going over to sleet and then rain

Pike to southern NH/VT: 1-2 inches before going over to rain. Maybe a bit of sleet as well.

south of the pike: Mostly rain, maybe a quick burst of non accumulating snow before a quick transition to rain.

Where will the low be? I think it’s going over my noggin. 

[ORH_wxman]

This actually may end up a little south of 18z. But it’s still pretty amped overall compared to other guidance 

[DomNH]

This is gonna be 3-6’’ of sand here overnight Friday night/Saturday then light non-accumulating garbage during the day Saturday. Not impressed. 

[DomNH]

NAM is LBNW. Rad presentation over SNE Sat AM would be dogshit if we get that sort of solution. 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This actually may end up a little south of 18z. But it’s still pretty amped overall compared to other guidance 

It’s definitely ever so slightly colder in your neck of the woods from 18z.  It’s not much of a change overall, but even 15-20 miles may mean a lot for some in Mass.

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This actually may end up a little south of 18z. But it’s still pretty amped overall compared to other guidance 

925s look better this run

[STILL N OF PIKE]

850 low and temps was a shade North of 18z , and thus snow was as well in N mass 

As low makes closest pass at 15z Saturday , you can see 0c temp is at route 2 on 0z nam and pike at 18z nam