Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[dryslot]

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You would think that discrepancy should become clearer soon.

Yes. I’d be shocked if we don’t have some distinct moves by one camp by tomorrow morning. 
 

My guess is we’ll see some sort of compromise but the magnitude of that comprise matters a lot. If GFS wins 70/30, then you’re gonna get smoked, but if it loses 70/30, it’s pretty pedestrian. 

[wxsniss]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is clearly a Miller B take over, as opposed to confluence forced attennuation.

Guidance tried to do that at the last moment with the Tuesday deal and it was total BS.

Agree

Tip summed it: we've been headfaked by compelling guidance so many times this winter, and by a similar synopsis just days ago. On the other hand, GFS has been amazingly steady relative to the Euro.

I haven't looked carefully but someone should check upstream realtime location of the ULL ejecting from the southwest. For example at hour 12z Friday, GFS has it over central-south Arkansas vs. NAM has it already into Missouri vs. Euro has it northern Arkansas. The differences amplify from there.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You can see why GFS socks me with 1'+....I'm right at the northern edge of that nascent H7 low.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes. I’d be shocked if we don’t have some distinct moves by one camp by tomorrow morning. 
 

My guess is we’ll see some sort of compromise but the magnitude of that comprise matters a lot. If GFS wins 70/30, then you’re gonna get smoked, but if it loses 70/30, it’s pretty pedestrian. 

Agree. Warning event NOP-interior, advisory otherwise.

[UnitedWx]

25 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

We’ve seen this before.. Gfs on an island, furthest south. Box leans Euro/NAM, which turns out to be more correct than not

Except for the fact that it's too early to use the NAM and the GFS has had quite a good track record this winter especially compared to the euro (still pains me to say that)

[40/70 Benchmark]

I will say GFS is improved model IMO.

[wxsniss]

Here's what I was talking about above... differences already at 42h (12z Friday)... GFS left, NAM right:

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You can see why GFS socks me with 1'+....I'm right at the northern edge of that nascent H7 low.

Exactly, That's what gets the eastern areas too.

[Damage In Tolland]

Always beware the Nam when it’s alone and north with warm tongues . It’s almost always correct. I am thinking maybe and inch or two of snow/ sleet here and then zr . Maybe flipping back to snow. SE of 95 with E winds may be above 32 for most . Unless the GFS is more right .

[Typhoon Tip]

24 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Despite whatever the ptype illustrations are showing, if that happens ...Scott's getting 1/16 of a mile Michael Jackson gloves with lightning and thunder

[Ginx snewx]

Ugh but congrats ski areas. Save a horse kids.

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Agree

Tip summed it: we've been headfaked by compelling guidance so many times this winter, and by a similar synopsis just days ago. On the other hand, GFS has been amazingly steady relative to the Euro.

I haven't looked carefully but someone should check upstream realtime location of the ULL ejecting from the southwest. For example at hour 12z Friday, GFS has it over central-south Arkansas vs. NAM has it already into Missouri vs. Euro has it northern Arkansas. The differences amplify from there.

 

I'm hunching the NAM's convective parameterizations are feeding back more latent heat release into the immediate downstream exhaust ..which pumps the heights by small but crucial amounts - that then forces the whole wave to turn slightly left more proficiently.

This is really quite precisely the same aspect you see over the west Atlantic/coastal regions, with coastal developments, where the NAM has a NW bias.  It's just doing this along the longitude of the MV, instead of the from Tennessee to Cape May NJ. 

They all have TV convection along the warm front, but the NAMs rendition of that looks like training in July, where as the other look like normal IB type overrunning stuff.  The 'type' and subsequent sequencing of CB convection matters

[Kitz Craver]

That is a toaster bath gradient for CT verbatim on that GFS clown. Yikes

[powderfreak]

Montreal forecast ranges from 15” to Partly Sunny.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Montreal forecast ranges from 15” to Partly Sunny.

Everyone has different needs but i think we would want that primary getting as far north before it does the electric slide east...........

[The 4 Seasons]

GEFS definitely ticked a bit north/warmer which is no surprise but it still looks like nearly every single member is south or well south of the op with the track of the secondary low. Spreads definitely tightened

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Everyone has different needs but i think we would want that primary getting as far north before it does the electric slide east...........

Yeah for sure... but I'm not greedy, just put me in a situation to get a nice Advisory snow of 6" or so and folks down south can have 12-18" or whatever.  Just like to be invited to the party, ha ha.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah for sure... but I'm not greedy, just put me in a situation to get a nice Advisory snow of 6" or so and folks down south can have 12-18" or whatever.  Just like to be invited to the party, ha ha.

If the GFS tickled anymore south and verified, I would be hosting a cirrus party.

[CT Rain]

Meh.

I fly out tomorrow morning for Telluride so whatever. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Meh.

I fly out tomorrow morning for Telluride so whatever. 

I’m sure Rochelle will handle it 

[8611Blizz]

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Whose map is that?  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, weathafella said:

Whose map is that?  

Looks like fishers station.

 

all these maps are all in on the euro 

[WinterWolf]

Obviously all preliminary maps as of this evening….they could all go up, or down lol…but Still feeling this sinks south in the end. 

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Whose map is that?  

WBZ

[UnitedWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Obviously all preliminary maps as of this evening….they could all go up, or down lol…but Still feeling this sinks south in the end. 

Agreed, just a gut feeling. Or, at least hold serve where the GFS is now. Even then though, need to get those mid levels to close

[ineedsnow]

I'm starting to feel this one here but so close

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

I'm starting to feel this one here but so close

I’m just the opposite.  Felt better about it yesterday.   Right now I’m leaning more Euro.  

[8611Blizz]

Wankum on cvb is actually worse, C-1 for Boston.