Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[CoastalWx]

Jeez quite the CCB.

[MuddyWx]

a hair stronger, nice hit

[SouthCoastMA]

tick north but pretty close to 12z. pike gets hammered with ccb, maybe a bit south of that. 

[TalcottWx]

57 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

A Nod toward the GFS….

Makin u nod like a Rottweiler in a butcher shop 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

18z GFS is a tic or two north of 12z, Gets squeezed east in the later panels once it hits the block.

Yup and it’s better with the mid level stuff sat morning for the pikers into EMATT.

[UnitedWx]

 light snow now in Westfield. I still don't believe the NAM.... way too early to look at it 

[HinghamBoss]

Serious question: now what?  Does majority rule and GFS gets weighted less?

[CoastalWx]

Almost noise. If anything maybe the thump was a bit better. 

[MuddyWx]

clowny

[CoastalWx]

Just now, HinghamBoss said:

Serious question: now what?  Does majority rule and GFS gets weighted less?

I still don't buy it, but it's not like moving mtns if guidance moves 40 miles south with the mid levels. 

[mahk_webstah]

I’m feeling better and better about this one. I kept waiting for it to go to shit but you have to respect the GFS I think and it’s QPF it’s been pretty high. I think it’s been spitting out 12 to 18 inches north of the Massachusetts border. Maybe we’re going to get the best of both worlds in terms of a strong primary push for a good thump and then sliding east, in time to form a proper coastal low for lots of snow for many.  Was thinking something along the lines of maybe 6 to 9 inches but I’m starting to think now that 8 to 12 is more likely with Lollis to 15.  Schnee Schnee!

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I still don't buy it, but it's not like moving mtns if guidance moves 40 miles south with the mid levels. 

Man, 40-60 miles would make a big difference here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I still don't buy it, but it's not like moving mtns if guidance moves 40 miles south with the mid levels. 

I don't buy a foot in Boston, either.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

GL @kdxken cutting down trees saturday morning with just 1” of slop forecasted.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

clowny

That is clearly a Miller B take over, as opposed to confluence forced attennuation.

Guidance tried to do that at the last moment with the Tuesday deal and it was total BS.

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

GL @kdxken cutting down trees saturday morning with just 1” of slop forecasted.

So are we going to get 3 inches of sleet? Of course if the Euro is right. It won't much matter, but the sleet single is pretty strong around here at the moment.

[MuddyWx]

We’ve seen this before.. Gfs on an island, furthest south. Box leans Euro/NAM, which turns out to be more correct than not

[wxsniss]

Just catching up, noticed 12z/18z GFS close H7, nice CCB

Tough forecast for the margins, especially ~ pike south... 50 mile error is well within range

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is clearly a Miller B take over, as opposed to confluence forced attennuation.

Guidance tried to do that at the last moment with the Tuesday deal and it was total BS.

 

Just now, wxsniss said:

Just catching up, noticed 12z/18z GFS close H7, nice CCB

Tough forecast for the margins, especially ~ pike south... 50 mile error is well within range

Yep.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't buy the whole sale Miller B detonation attm....but, we'll see.

[ORH_wxman]

That GFS CCB sig is crazy. It looks even better this run than 12z. I’m not buying into that yet but the persistence of that model has to be acknowledged. Esp since it’s one of the better models. We did see 18z reggie make a big nod toward it even if not quite all the way there. But the other guidance makes it hard to really buy into the idea. 

[TalcottWx]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I guess I don't see what this system likely sucking for you has to do with how much you end up with in March. I made it clear precip type issues would be prevalent across the southern half of the region due to MJO-7 WAR...IOW, I have my eggs in later baskets for region wide big snows.

Lord you are moody central today

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That GFS CCB sig is crazy. It looks even better this run than 12z. I’m not buying into that yet but the persistence of that model has to be acknowledged. Esp since it’s one of the better models. We did see 18z reggie make a big nod toward it even if not quite all the way there. But the other guidance makes it hard to really buy into the idea. 

I feel like its rushing that evolution. 

[TalcottWx]

14 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

clowny

You won't see me again until the next severe event

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TalcottWx said:

Lord you are moody central today

Not really. I explained where I was coming from..just let it go.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like its rushing that evolution. 

The track of the ULL in the Midwest is the real key. On the GFS it keeps it south of the southern MI border into western OH. On runs like the NAM, it’s tracking into the thumb of MI. That’s a pretty big difference of 100+ miles. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

So are we going to get 3 inches of sleet? Of course if the Euro is right. It won't much matter, but the sleet single is pretty strong around here at the moment.

I honestly don’t know but the KBOS map is underdone for CT/MA border and points n and ne. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The track of the ULL in the Midwest is the real key. On the GFS it keeps it south of the southern MI border into western OH. On runs like the NAM, it’s tracking into the thumb of MI. That’s a pretty big difference of 100+ miles. 

You would think that discrepancy should become clearer soon.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I still don't buy it, but it's not like moving mtns if guidance moves 40 miles south with the mid levels. 

What is the mechanism on the gfs causing significant more snow in SE Mass as opposed to similar latitude out west? CCB?

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

What is the mechanism on the gfs causing significant more snow in SE Mass as opposed to similar latitude out west? CCB?

Yes...mid levels close off, which also caps mid level warming.