jbenedet Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I know for me the WPC snow amounts and percentages tend to be superior over the local offices . I watch them all every storm . WPC is usually steadier and less weenie’ish. I use their 50% cut off line to basically determine what they are thinking and if the percentage lines are packed very tight you know there is a steep gradient I like this a lot actually. Very reasonable ATM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I like this a lot actually. Very reasonable ATM. And I closely follow their updates / trends . They really are under utilized in the day of folks loving clown maps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, CT Rain said: North and pretty weak sauce. Meh. #Persistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: At least we have the 40" March Ray promised us. I don't remember if he promised me 9.5 by this time in the season...I will have to go back and check his crystal ball write up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 55 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Ready to move onto 3 months of cloudy and drizzle, aka spring Or, for many, this winter, bar one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I like this a lot actually. Very reasonable ATM. Obviously they have either ignored the GFS or are saying it's wrong in the making of that map. Otherwise, they wouldn't have a 0-10% chance for much of SNE. Even a 20% weighting for it would yield a greater percentage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 23 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: One thing to note about the BOX map is it only goes to 7AM Saturday. There could be more after that Could also be more rain after that 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 55 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I hope it works out for all. We’ve been burned so many times this winter though, tough to have confidence it’ll work out positively Ya we have been burned. It’s sucked. I’m just going with the building/retrograding -NAO, and the confluence/50/50, this should get shunted south and possibly redevelop. If it doesnt…oh well. I think the Euro has the wrong idea….it sucks lately to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 25 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: And I closely follow their updates / trends . They really are under utilized in the day of folks loving clown maps I get a lot of shit when I talk about what WPC says lol I like them because they will stick with Continuity as opposed to flopping around with every model run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I get a lot of shit when I talk about what WPC says lol I like them because they will stick with Continuity as opposed to flopping around with every model run I know and i think it may be all but the NWS WFO's consult with them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I get a lot of shit when I talk about what WPC says lol I like them because they will stick with Continuity as opposed to flopping around with every model run I mean let’s face it . It’s a snow board and WPC maps are lower then clown maps and they are also more accurate. So they won’t be as liked. It’s honestly not rocket science . I’ve noticed myself that when I latch onto snowier ideas and models it’s more “enjoyable” from the standpoint of a winter weather enthusiast. It’s really basically the default setting unless you decide to realize it’s less enjoyable and More accurate to remain unbiased (not flip to negative which I am aware Is a “thing” probably to lower bar etc I don’t look for ways things won’t work when I’m looking at a system a couple days out , also I think having the ability to travel for most big snows makes looking at things from a more “balanced” perspective less “painful“ . It’s hard to find a true balance and I really work at that even with my limited knowledge . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Nam looks like garbage Thru 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Congrats Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Nam looks like garbage Thru 54 Looks considerably north of 12z early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Nam looks like garbage Thru 54 Ka Ka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 One thing noticeable too is the models have been a bit inconsistent on exactly where the low forms down in Texas. This may not mean much really, but that could impact it's exact track as it moves northeast and then ultimately determine whether it gets farther north or squashed south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 NAM moves north, but then slides east with an isothermal snow bomb for NE MA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 18z NAM actually crunched the low eastward quicker than 12z despite initially being further north. Something to watch on future runs...if that process happens a little faster, you start ending up pretty snowy quickly...like I said earlier with the QPF too, it's sort of non-linear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Nam adjusted late . Secondary low took a decent track for Merrimack valley 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Nam looks good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z NAM actually crunched the low eastward quicker than 12z despite initially being further north. Something to watch on future runs...if that process happens a little faster, you start ending up pretty snowy quickly...like I said earlier with the QPF too, it's sort of non-linear. Will synoptically what were the reasons for the first move further north and then “second move “ more East late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2023 Author Share Posted March 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z NAM actually crunched the low eastward quicker than 12z despite initially being further north. Something to watch on future runs...if that process happens a little faster, you start ending up pretty snowy quickly...like I said earlier with the QPF too, it's sort of non-linear. right - I thought it actually looked colder at first.. but wasn't paying attention to the low itself -really more about the thermal fields. Then it ends up east like that - so it kind of is an ambrosia of tedium to try and parse out what's really better or worse. I'm sick of this mo-f*r just happen already and get it over with. sonuvabitch 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: At least we have the 40" March Ray promised us. I don't understand your point...its March 1, and I have you on the line between 2-5" and 1-3" for this event. God, what an insufferable baby. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM moves north, but then slides east with an isothermal snow bomb for NE MA. Yeah that was a nice correction at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't understand your point...its March 1, and I have you on the line between 2-5" and 1-3" for this event. God, what an insufferable baby. It’s a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't understand your point...its March 1, and I have you on the line between 2-5" and 1-3" for this event. God, what an insufferable baby. It's a joke. Relax. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yeah that was a nice correction at the end. It squashes the ULL east last minute. It's a real risky thing though. 50 miles here or there is a cold rain or 6". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Will synoptically what were the reasons for the first move further north and then “second move “ more East late Looked like it was digging the initial s/w more which causes it to want to rip N when it goes negative, but the confluence looked a little better well out to the east to it was forced to shoot eastward once it hit the brick wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 A Nod toward the GFS…. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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