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Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event


Typhoon Tip
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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I know for me the WPC snow amounts and percentages tend to be superior over the local offices . I watch them all every storm . WPC is usually steadier and less weenie’ish. I use their 50% cut off line to basically determine what they are thinking and if the percentage lines are packed very tight you know there is a steep gradient 

I like this a lot actually. Very reasonable ATM.

Day 3 image not available

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5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I like this a lot actually. Very reasonable ATM.

Day 3 image not available

Obviously they have either ignored the GFS or are saying it's wrong in the making of that map.  Otherwise, they wouldn't have a 0-10% chance for much of SNE.  Even a 20% weighting for it would yield a greater percentage.

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55 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I hope it works out for all. We’ve been burned so many times this winter though, tough to have confidence it’ll work out positively 

Ya we have been burned. It’s sucked. I’m just going with the building/retrograding -NAO, and the confluence/50/50, this should get shunted south and possibly redevelop. If it doesnt…oh well.  
 

I think the Euro has the wrong idea….it sucks lately to be honest. 

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25 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

And I closely follow their updates / trends . They really are under utilized in the day of folks loving clown maps 

I get a lot of shit when I talk about what WPC says lol I like them because they will stick with Continuity as opposed to flopping around with every model run

 

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5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I get a lot of shit when I talk about what WPC says lol I like them because they will stick with Continuity as opposed to flopping around with every model run

 

I know and i think it may be all but the NWS WFO's consult with them.

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9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I get a lot of shit when I talk about what WPC says lol I like them because they will stick with Continuity as opposed to flopping around with every model run

 

I mean let’s face it . It’s a snow board and WPC maps are lower then clown maps and they are also more accurate.
 

So they won’t be as liked. It’s honestly not rocket science . I’ve noticed myself that when I latch onto snowier ideas and models it’s more “enjoyable” from the standpoint of a winter weather enthusiast. It’s really basically the default setting unless you decide to realize it’s less enjoyable and More accurate to remain unbiased (not flip to negative which I am aware Is a “thing” probably to lower bar etc    I don’t look for ways things won’t work when I’m looking at a system a couple days out , also I think having the ability to travel for most big snows makes looking at things from a more “balanced” perspective less “painful“  . It’s hard to find a true balance and I really work at that even with my limited knowledge . 

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18z NAM actually crunched the low eastward quicker than 12z despite initially being further north. Something to watch on future runs...if that process happens a little faster, you start ending up pretty snowy quickly...like I said earlier with the QPF too, it's sort of non-linear.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z NAM actually crunched the low eastward quicker than 12z despite initially being further north. Something to watch on future runs...if that process happens a little faster, you start ending up pretty snowy quickly...like I said earlier with the QPF too, it's sort of non-linear.

Will  synoptically what were the reasons for the first move further north and then  “second move “ more East late 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z NAM actually crunched the low eastward quicker than 12z despite initially being further north. Something to watch on future runs...if that process happens a little faster, you start ending up pretty snowy quickly...like I said earlier with the QPF too, it's sort of non-linear.

right - I thought it actually looked colder at first.. but wasn't paying attention to the low itself -really more about the thermal fields.   Then it ends up east like that - so it kind of is an ambrosia of tedium to try and parse out what's really better or worse. 

I'm sick of this mo-f*r

just happen already and get it over with.  sonuvabitch

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10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Will  synoptically what were the reasons for the first move further north and then  “second move “ more East late 

Looked like it was digging the initial s/w more which causes it to want to rip N when it goes negative, but the confluence looked a little better well out to the east to it was forced to shoot eastward once it hit the brick wall.

 

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