Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't know, so don't rope me in...lol. It's just my concern. I hope I am wrong...but I don't see overwhelming reason to think it pulls a CT special like the last one and ticks south. 

Hopefully wolfie cleared his snow already so it doesn’t become unmovable slop with the rain 

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Great event for CNE and NNE. At least ski areas get to have a good 2nd half season. Lakes Region to Dryslot it seems has had a lot of lackluster seasons lately. 

Been some very bad ones indeed.

[CoastalWx]

At least we have the 40" March Ray promised us. 

[HinghamBoss]

This ain't happening.  Been fooled too many times.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

This looks like a very good storm for Garth’s spot in S dacks (I think) in NY. Even if it gains latitude Friday nite that area would still Get a crush  

[Cyclone-68]

Ready to move onto 3 months of cloudy and drizzle, aka spring

[dryslot]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This looks like a very good storm for Garth’s spot in S dacks (I think) in NY. Even if it gains latitude Friday nite that area would still Get a crush  

Party on!

[CoastalWx]

EPS was a bit north too, but not my a whole lot. Compared to 6z.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS was a bit north too, but not my a whole lot. Compared to 6z.

Is it north or south of 12z op

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Is it north of 12z op

Maybe a few miles south? Very close.

[Great Snow 1717]

The only 40 most of you will be seeing in March!!

[Typhoon Tip]

Comparing the oper. GFS vs the Euro ( this run...)

arriving at 72 hours ...the Euro's confluence axis is several hundred miles NE of where the GFS places it.

this is a clear disagreement on the degree of -NAO exertion spanning back SW ( ...transitively...) between these two guidance sources.  

the GEFs appears to side with the operational pretty well wrt to that, and the other parametric evolution -fwiw. 

not sure what the EPS says about its oper. flagship version, but i know that some recent run cycles demoed more disconnect in this cluster comparing the American suite - again... fwiw.

This 'exertion' is hugely important to this.  The GFS begins to feel that probably ... 36 hours into the cinema, when by imperceptible amts it begins correcting small amounts S-E along the arced trajectory as it rises in latitude ( deep layer total mechanical wave space governing the event).  Such that by 72 hours, the Euro has a solution that's up our fannies too far for fun ( prison visit)... while the GFS is serviceable risk for winter enthusiasts...

[TalcottWx]

42 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Agreed, it will be denied 

 

41 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You’re such a frieken dud…

Tblizz is starting to tap into his potential as a troll and it's a beautiful thing to watch develop. They don't keep housewives going without personalities and drama, do they

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hopefully wolfie cleared his snow already so it doesn’t become unmovable slop with the rain 

Oh it’s cleared.
 

 Hey, I gave my idea, and why. We’re still two days out, and I think this ultimately ticks south. I certainly could be wrong, but that’s my feeling. 

 

And yes, it’s been a horrid winter…a total Dud lol.   

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh it’s cleared.
 

 Hey, I gave my idea, and why. We’re still two days out, and I think this ultimately ticks south. I certainly could be wrong, but that’s my feeling. 

 

And yes, it’s been a horrid winter…a total Dud lol.   

I hope it works out for all. We’ve been burned so many times this winter though, tough to have confidence it’ll work out positively 

[HoarfrostHubb]

BOXie BOX

[TalcottWx]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

BOXie BOX

This would be an unmitigated disaster 

[Typhoon Tip]

It's easy to assume a Euro solution ... but that's conditioning from what I sense here.    Least outcome relative to desire is an emotive response based on a troubled childhood. lol

I don't see a lot of analytics that supports a Euro solution ( necessarily) over the GFS, other than an unrelenting season impassioned by torments and maddening results leading the way... Hence the conditioning.

Can't say I blame anyone...

[weatherwiz]

That's about what my initial thoughts are for Connecticut. 

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

I find it fascinating to see the difference between Long Island and coastal CT on a lot of those. 

Been that way all winter, but poor verification.  Was the same for yesterday's event, but didn't verify.  Similar totals NS LI to coastal CT.

Mostly, they haven't verified because the CT side forecasts have fizzled to zero.

[8611Blizz]

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

BOXie BOX

If I actually get what's on that map I'll take it and run this season. 

[mahk_webstah]

15 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

The only 40 most of you will be seeing in March!!

I figure that’ll be in a brown paper bag for many.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said:

If I actually get what's on that map I'll take it and run this season. 

Same here in Methuen....

[jbenedet]

The timing on the euro couldnt be better in terms of diurnal min. That run would have been quite a bit worse in terms of snowmaps otherwise. SE and East winds ripping out ahead.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

11 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

This would be an unmitigated disaster 

That matches WPC ‘s am update pretty closely 

bottom line is we need confluence to step up MORE next few cycles 

[HoarfrostHubb]

That BOX map is a link... my bad.

 

Here is a jpeg version of the same 

[TalcottWx]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

That BOX map is a link... my bad.

 

Here is a jpeg version of the same 

I'd like to stick that map in the jpeg and forget about it

[jaf]

So it's basically GFS vs everyone else at this point?

[HoarfrostHubb]

One thing to note about the BOX map is it only goes to 7AM Saturday. There could be more after that

[STILL N OF PIKE]

11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

One thing to note about the BOX map is it only goes to 7AM Saturday. There could be more after that

I know for me the WPC snow amounts and percentages tend to be superior over the local offices . I watch them all every storm . WPC is usually steadier and less weenie’ish. I use their 50% line for various snow amounts  to basically determine how many inches they are thinking for that contour and if the percentage lines are packed very tight you know there is a steep gradient And subject to more significant changes for an area .