Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

you got the GFS map?

[MJO812]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

you got the GFS map?

Cuts into Chicago and reforms in New England

[MJO812]

Cmc barely gets any precip in SNE while the GFS cuts all the way to Chicago lol

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Cuts into Chicago and reforms in New England

I think that is what the WPC had this morning, but still had decent snow for CNE NNE

[dryslot]

You need to get past tomorrows and Thursday's to get a better handle on this one.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Ray will love the GFS Norlun action at the end of the storm.

[MJO812]

All comes down to the block

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

All comes down to the block

Gfs under modelling it again.look where it initially had the 2/28 event lol. 

[George001]

Gfs made a big jump north, low in Chicago.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs under modelling it again.look where it initially had the 2/28 event lol. 

It has been doing that for years

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Gfs made a big jump north, low in Chicago.

Late george

[George001]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Late george

I haven’t seen the gefs yet, I’m interested to see where most members have the low location. I don’t think it will be in Chicago, but am expecting a bump north. Possibly over Buffalo.

[MJO812]

Ukie looks more amped but less than the gfs

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

These southern streamers, especially in a -pna, tend to come north inside D3 so I’d prefer to be on the northern edge/fringe right now. 

[ineedsnow]

ukie destroys 

[ineedsnow]

close to a foot here we take

[Ginx snewx]

Ray would like the UKIe a foot there. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

CMC is a slider east but NYC-PHL get some goods and SNE too.  Might be a sacrifice we need to make for the overall sanity.  But that is the southern outlier so far.

Yea...I'm sure fine sacrificing after 50".....my thought is "fuc& that".....sitting at 21.5" after 4 consecutive shitty years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ray would like the UKIe a foot there. 

I've been saying that is my concern....if it doesn't phase with the PV in time, then that is the risk. I am rooting for phase at any cost.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

These southern streamers, especially in a -pna, tend to come north inside D3 so I’d prefer to be on the northern edge/fringe right now. 

Yea, but its a matter of how much...this is why I said last night that my area is at greatest risk in SNE....CT least risk.

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw, the operational GFS is a significant NW outlier compared to the evolution of it's ensemble mean. 

...the latter of which, also fwiw, is a fantastic snow event implication from N PA thru NE.

[MJO812]

Gefs is way east of the op run

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I've been saying that is my concern....if it doesn't phase with the PV in time, then that is the risk. I am rooting for phase at any cost.

? A foot for you on ukie

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, but its a matter of how much...this is why I said last night that my area is at greatest risk in SNE....CT least risk.

IDK but I’m hedging on a phl to bos classic mecs for now until there is glaring data to change my mind. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs is way east of the op run

Looks like two clusters, cutter or inside BM/huggers.

[NorEastermass128]

Hmmm…one whiff camp and one rainer camp. If it whiffs, let’s get NYC one good storm. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

? A foot for you on ukie

I didn't see it....I have kids hanging off of me. I though you guys meant it had a cut off

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

IDK but I’m hedging on a phl to bos classic mecs for now until there is glaring data to change my mind. 

I feel like that is likely, but I won't talk it up untill first call.

[Typhoon Tip]

GEFs has also trended several mb weaker overall ... 

This isn't gonna be an easy ride.   We still have the caveat wrt to the -PNA footprint/fast progressive nature to the flow to contend with.

We are all aware that 'past performance doesn't dictate future performance' with these models, but I've never fully agreed with that sentiment.  Partially? sure - but only in so far as every situation/scenario has to be considered for its own identity.  The problem is... that identity is in the same family and families tend to share behavioral-related genetics.  Heh...  In this case, the modest transient exertion by the -NAO ...doomed the GFS' fancy wrt to the 28th.  It seems reasonable to assume the same exertion will be in place as this thing is approaching - the key difference being, this one is wholesale more powerful upon ejection out of the SW...  So how that resolves as it moves closer toward the terminus of the NAO exertion ( roughly where we are in space)... that's a "cloudy" picture. 

I am noticing the gap between the 3rd/4th principle S/W, and a new injection coming in from the W, is shrinking across the last several cycles. It seems this cycle has crossed a threshold where there is now some destructive interference being introduced into the whole circuitry of affairs, from that introduced source, that was not a part of previous run cycles.  So yayyy ...another card player shows up for the deal. This higher error prone progressive pattern could morph all this ...if that gap narrows further and then it becomes dominant and we end up with something no one saw coming. 

Anyway, this 12z GFS deterministic run is selling less NAO exertion overall, and for that ... tries to make a run at a cutter.. .but ultimately fails - not before it is too late... and this ends up less than appealing to winter enthusiasm.  right.

 

[powderfreak]

So the GFS is the best solution, GGEM the worst, and the rest are in the middle? 

Nice model ride going up.  GGEM gives 6"+ though on 3/2.