HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 This one has 8”-12” potential but I’ll stay mildly skeptical on potential until tonight’s runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 I like Kuchera for warm mid levels and an idea of how the southern edge of snow pans out. Warming trends last 3 runs for CT more than anything. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Uncle north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Hopefully it is drunk, but #winter 22/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I like Kuchera for warm mid levels and an idea of how the southern edge of snow pans out. Warming trends last 3 runs… So much for the establishing west based -nao doing it’s thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, DomNH said: Yeah I tend to agree, but I don’t really see this as a typical SWFE get in get out either. Very annoying. Quite frustrating. I keep thinking too how much the convection which evolves through the day tomorrow will impact the system. I'm really starting to think though this is going to be a major dud. Looking at the GFS QPF it's very encouraging, however, the column really starts to dry quickly. The whole system just looks extremely messy. If anything, there will probably be a very narrow corridor that gets hit decent...but it's over a short duration. I don't think we'll end up seeing widespread QPF as aggressive as the GFS has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: So much for the establishing west based -nao doing it’s thing. This would be a full-on cutter if it weren't for the -NAO....but at some point you reach an equilibrium which is where we are close to now...so we see these wobbles....colder, warmer, colder, warmer has been the trend the last 3 or 4 cycles. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Gotta say this sounding isn't doing very much for me...not only do you have the warm nose within a margin of error, degree wise and temperature wise, but snow growth is unimpressive after an initial front end burst. Would exercise caution about using the Kuchera map here, as usual. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Well uncle gave Boston plenty of snow but every run regardless of outcome of our drunk relative looks weird. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I like Kuchera for warm mid levels and an idea of how the southern edge of snow pans out. Warming trends last 3 runs for CT more than anything. Still like my First Call Map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 13 minutes ago, dryslot said: Some of you may not want to look at the uncle. Still good in my hood... but naso much for many others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Still good in my hood... but naso much for many others I could care less what it shows, That and the GGEM too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Gefs stays course 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: Gotta say this sounding isn't doing very much for me...not only do you have the warm nose within a margin of error, degree wise and temperature wise, but snow growth is unimpressive after an initial front end burst. Would exercise caution about using the Kuchera map here, as usual. Looks fine to me over here, but this isn't done wobbling one way or the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: I could care less what it shows, That and the GGEM too. Yup... I don't give it much credence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Uncle north. Must be Canadian Club for lunch today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This would be a full-on cutter if it weren't for the -NAO....but at some point you reach an equilibrium which is where we are close to now...so we see these wobbles....colder, warmer, colder, warmer has been the trend the last 3 or 4 cycles. Oh, definitely but I would have bet against warmer trends looking at this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: I could care less what it shows, That and the GGEM too. GFS/Euro are going to get like 90% of the weight in a 3 day forecast....prob reduced to like 60-70% inside of 48h where NAM and other mesos can pick up some of the slack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Looks like GFS is ticking warmer in the mid levels in the south, but less marine influence over eastern areas. Fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Looks fine to me over here, but this isn't done wobbling one way or the other Even out there I see concerns with snow growth on the soundings. Certainly will continue to see wobbles in either direction, and I'm not saying that's the apt solution, but it shows just how quickly this threat can fall apart by only a slight margin of error. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS/Euro are going to get like 90% of the weight in a 3 day forecast....prob reduced to like 60-70% inside of 48h where NAM and other mesos can pick up some of the slack. I agree here, I think the mesos ended up doing a decent job with yesterdays as well as we got closer, Even the Euro qpf wise, Was inline with what i had for a total, GFS was to high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: Even out there I see concerns with snow growth on the soundings. Certainly will continue to see wobbles in either direction, and I'm not saying that's the apt solution, but it shows just how quickly this threat can fall apart by only a slight margin of error. Headline of Winter 22-23 right there. Not biting yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: I agree here, I think the mesos ended up doing a decent job with yesterdays. Yeah once inside of 24h, they usually get most of the weight. Euro has had its share of duds inside of 24h this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 It's subtle but the GEFS trending towards other warmer guidance the past 2 model cycles. The WAR hook-up that we have seen so often this season, with confluence in place. This translates to much more of an easterly fetch despite the Canadian high in a good spot (initially). The cold canadian dews fighting the dews advecting off the atlantic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Oh, definitely but I would have bet against warmer trends looking at this: Just my opinion…but I think we’ll see this ultimately tick south and colder the next two days as a whole. Thats a very strong block and also 50/50. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 The Canadian surface hp, in actuality, extends to the western Atlantic. Those big Blue H's can be an error trap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Would help those of us on CP for Friday to not have highs in the mid 40's. Seems very narrow time frame for accumulating snow otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Oh, definitely but I would have bet against warmer trends looking at this: Lack of consolidated block & 50/50. Heights are high and low where they need to be but it's strung out. That's a problem given how the Pacific side looks. If the Pacific were a little better then this could work. It'll be good enough for C/NNE with some front end frozen further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 I don’t think the -NAO is done retrograding west yet either, so that may help out as we close in, and models may start to see that a little more as we move ahead, and adjust south some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 A lot of very snowy GEFS members 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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