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Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event


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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Lots of qpf... let's see if it hold or dries out a bit like has been the trend this season

Further east track on the shortwave will produce big QPF....wrapping it up west ala NAM will keep is fairly paltry by comparison...that's basically the larger scale view of how QPF will trend in this.

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So stronger shortwave, also stronger confluence on 12zGFS, but doesn’t seem to be a wash wrt sensible weather outcomes. Went from mostly snow at 6z to a scalp fest at 12z for most of CT. Did the 2mb increase of shortwave strength promote more warming aloft? 

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4 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

This is too close for comfort. Verbatim a ton of mixing in my area of CT. 

If this trend a little further south, we are looking at a major snowstorm.

If it trends a little north...

Capture.PNG

I think it was back in 2015 we had 2 events that were a little over 6 inches of snow, and then several inches of sleet. It was a BEAR to plow, but I'd take that again in a heartbeat. It's the only time I remember having anywhere near that much sleet here and it happened twice the same year.

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25 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

This is too close for comfort. Verbatim a ton of mixing in my area of CT. 

If this trend a little further south, we are looking at a major snowstorm.

If it trends a little north...

Capture.PNG

Is this the proper snowfall map from the 12z GFS, or the one that shows 3" in Providence?

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43 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

drink down das boot, so smooth

125255__beerfest_l.jpg.dbe212ea846ae74860107068375a1fc1.jpg

"shooting the boot" is something done in rugby, during post match drink-ups either at the bar, party, wherever.   
When group sing-a-longs happen, and if you were the person leading the song, and mess up the lyrics you have to shoot the boot...This means take the nastiest rugby boot (cleat/ shoe), and fill it with whatever alcohol was lying around (and sometimes spit, and other stuff).

Some of the older rugby songs have some of the nastiest lyrics by the way.  I think the whole practice has become a bit tamer over the years.
 

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GEFS look good. As many said, the "thump" probably is the most important part. Yes the thermals are important, but if we don't have the 6hr QPF dump while it is cold enough, it won't matter much. The thump and associated lift also helps hold off some of the mid level warming. 

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1 minute ago, DomNH said:

Going to the Celtics Friday night so watching onset more than anything and it’s interesting how the GFS is bringing this in much faster than pretty much all other guidance. 

This may be one of the most annoying aspects of this whole thing. The timing differences are pretty wild. I'm inclined to go with the faster timing which seems to be the case more often then not, especially in these patterns. 

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6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This may be one of the most annoying aspects of this whole thing. The timing differences are pretty wild. I'm inclined to go with the faster timing which seems to be the case more often then not, especially in these patterns. 

Yeah I tend to agree, but I don’t really see this as a typical SWFE get in get out either. Very annoying.

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