Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[wxsniss]

ICON looks like carbon copy of GFS

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Icon actually ticked colder.

 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We ICON.

Just going to post this....going back the last 4 runs, a noticeable push from the building confluence. Long range meso models unable to recognize this feature well?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Actually looked a lot like the GFS that run.

It did. Bratwurst for all. 

[ORH_wxman]

We'll see what the real models do soon. JV hour basically was a wash.

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, HinghamBoss said:

GFS having its morning run that the EURO had last Thursday before yesterday's storm?

Ya the only difference is, the Euro was 5-6 days out with that run, and this is 2 days out. C’mon, you’re better than this. 

[UnitedWx]

50 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Exactly this. It doesn’t mean much. 

Yup. No one should be getting nervous about the NAM at this range. Only need to go back to the last event for proof

[SouthCoastMA]

drink down das boot, so smooth

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

ICON looks like carbon copy of GFS

Yep shifted southeast

[weatherwiz]

I foresee this as being extremely similar to the past storm we had, except with questions on overall thermal profile, but I would wager colder vs. warmer. 

[George001]

I think we will have a good idea of whether to expect the higher end (6-12) or lower end (mostly sleet, maybe a couple inches) after 0z tonight for those of us south of the pike. Looks like we are right on the line right now, im leaning somewhere in the middle, maybe 4-6 inches or so while northern areas get more.

[Modfan2]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I foresee this as being extremely similar to the past storm we had, except with questions on overall thermal profile, but I would wager colder vs. warmer. 

I think we may see more sleet this time vs snow here in parts of CT

[Kitz Craver]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Actually looked a lot like the GFS that run.

I only care about the ICON when it jacks MBY…

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Modfan2 said:

I think we may see more sleet this time vs snow here in parts of CT

Certainly plausible, especially towards southern Connecticut, but at this stage there is just so much uncertainty it's hard to go with any one solution or idea. I think it's even possible this whole thing may end up crapping out and this is a rather uneventful, low impact event for most. 

[ORH_wxman]

GFS actually looks stronger with the confluence through 36h than 06z did. We'll see if that holds.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS actually looks stronger with the confluence through 36h than 06z did. We'll see if that holds.

ICON would send people off their chairs if the model was worth a flake

heh... I mean, that looks like 12 hours of S just about everywhere N of the south shore... with at least 8 of them in S+

[dryslot]

12z GFS looks a couple tics north of the 06z run, Confluence looks to weaken a bit.

[mahk_webstah]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It did. Bratwurst for all. 

Bratwurst and big boys…you buyin?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, dryslot said:

12z GFS looks a couple tics north of the 06z run, Confluence looks to weaken a bit.

Confluence was def initially stronger, but the main shortwave looks like it's gaining just a smidge more latitude by 60h.

[weatherwiz]

Looks a bit stronger and more consolidated with the s/w too. Seems it takes a bit longer for it to open up 

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Confluence was def initially stronger, but the main shortwave looks like it's gaining just a smidge more latitude by 60h.

2mb stronger.

[dryslot]

That would be a pellet fest in Northern CT

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, dryslot said:

2mb stronger.

Stronger thump and push east just in time.  Though this goes more swfe than B if primary stronger?

[TalcottWx]

Looks like Ray is absolutely crushed this run.

[ORH_wxman]

This run actually has a better CCB Saturday morning than 06z did for SNE, despite the initial thump being a bit north.

[Typhoon Tip]

Looks like wobble noise in a steeply gradated set up...

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

That would be a pellet fest in Northern CT

Here is a sounding in Litchfield County. Super close. But also note the dry air 

[CT Rain]

GFS is a scalping for most of CT.  Yikes.

[TalcottWx]

This is too close for comfort. Verbatim a ton of mixing in my area of CT. 

If this trend a little further south, we are looking at a major snowstorm.

If it trends a little north...

[EastonSN+]

Not bad at all. Hopefully ticks south a bit further.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Lots of qpf... let's see if it hold or dries out a bit like has been the trend this season