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Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event


Typhoon Tip
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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Going to have to rely quite heavily on getting good upper level divergence to help with blossoming precipitation. There is a ton of dry air out ahead of the system and also a great deal of dry air that gets ingested into the system as a whole. 

Don't you know that you aren't supposed to present meaningful negative analysis?

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actually... the 06z trended N by some comparing the 00z run.  It's not a one time thing..

But the 06z GFS went colder... and with the Euro tending to collapse... so the consensus sign of the deltas (-dm/dt) are not in favor of the + dNAM/dt ( crude math) of these two recent NAM runs. 

It's a weird winter... every model or foresight there is has had equal chance to score a coup, but nothing has

 

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7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The NAM would have been quite a bit worse if not for the night time onset. That aspect looks key across multiple pieces of guidance.

 

It's effin' warm.

 

namconus_T2ma_us_13.png

NAM aside, what good are anomalies when determing rain/snow.  A lot of that red area supports snow

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro and GFS both CAA Saturday morning with snow.

Yea, Sat morning. Looks like white rain/drizzle imby by 15z. East winds are ripping on the euro, though even with that look. It's tenuous for many. And again the timing is like ideal, if it shifts either way it's worse. 

I'm a seller of the GFS depiction (for now).

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NAM is out of range.  Focus should be GFS and EURO at this point.   GFS has been best with this system in terms of being the most consistent.  EURO all over the place but starting to slowly tic toward the GFS with each run.  12Z on both of these will be telling - do things nudge back north or hold or tic south further?  We will see!!

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18 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

NAM aside, what good are anomalies when determing rain/snow.  A lot of that red area supports snow

We're after accumulating snow. that's one point. Not necessarily profiles that support snow.

The other is - HP/LP it's all relative. Will the cold win? Well it's surrounded by relatively warmer air. Cold is on the run - relatively warm air is overtaking it. You also don't get that classic CCB, which really makes for the big events. That's the point of these depictions, in laymen's terms. 

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26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

actually... the 06z trended N by some comparing the 00z run.  It's not a one time thing..

But the 06z GFS went colder... and with the Euro tending to collapse... so the consensus sign of the deltas (-dm/dt) are not in favor of the + dNAM/dt ( crude math) of these two recent NAM runs. 

It's a weird winter... every model or foresight there is has had equal chance to score a coup, but nothing has

 

This has definitely been the case... nobody wants to win... and we all lose

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

I see the GFS vs most other guidance. Maybe I'm missing something?

Euro/EPS looks more like rgem.

Eps members look more like the gfs

I'm not getting anything down here but the confluence to the north should be enough for interior NY and SNE. 

 

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