Chris12WX Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Going to have to rely quite heavily on getting good upper level divergence to help with blossoming precipitation. There is a ton of dry air out ahead of the system and also a great deal of dry air that gets ingested into the system as a whole. Don't you know that you aren't supposed to present meaningful negative analysis? 1 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2023 Author Share Posted March 1, 2023 actually... the 06z trended N by some comparing the 00z run. It's not a one time thing.. But the 06z GFS went colder... and with the Euro tending to collapse... so the consensus sign of the deltas (-dm/dt) are not in favor of the + dNAM/dt ( crude math) of these two recent NAM runs. It's a weird winter... every model or foresight there is has had equal chance to score a coup, but nothing has 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 There's also a light rain drizzle/rot end with this look because how warm the atmosphere is by Sat afternoon. No cold hook-up to the west, north or the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Better hope the big boy models at least hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, jbenedet said: There's also a light rain drizzle/rot end with this look because how warm the atmosphere is by Sat afternoon. No cold hook-up to the west, north or the upper levels. Euro and GFS both CAA Saturday morning with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2023 Author Share Posted March 1, 2023 Nam is almost 5 to 10 mb weaker with antecedent and in situ high pressure, N of Maine comparing the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Better hope the big boy models at least hold. Have you warned the wife and kids to keep their distance until Friday? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 7 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The NAM would have been quite a bit worse if not for the night time onset. That aspect looks key across multiple pieces of guidance. It's effin' warm. NAM aside, what good are anomalies when determing rain/snow. A lot of that red area supports snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 13 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: That NAM run personified it is one run of the NAM while literally all of the others have trended better for SNE. Tranquilla! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Have you warned the wife and kids to keep their distance until Friday? They made need to get out of dodge Friday night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Better hope the big boy models at least hold. Hold onto those big boys! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro and GFS both CAA Saturday morning with snow. Yea, Sat morning. Looks like white rain/drizzle imby by 15z. East winds are ripping on the euro, though even with that look. It's tenuous for many. And again the timing is like ideal, if it shifts either way it's worse. I'm a seller of the GFS depiction (for now). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Hold them close, Actually give them a hug before you give them a black eye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: it is one run of the NAM while literally all of the others have trended better for SNE. Tranquilla! Not worried yet. I have a lot less room for error though, so I need the globals to tick S again at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSnowBOS Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 NAM is out of range. Focus should be GFS and EURO at this point. GFS has been best with this system in terms of being the most consistent. EURO all over the place but starting to slowly tic toward the GFS with each run. 12Z on both of these will be telling - do things nudge back north or hold or tic south further? We will see!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Reggie is further north and warmer with the low as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Reggie is further north and warmer with the low as well. Almost no change though...it was like a 10 mile shift....nothing like the NAM. Hopefully NAM is off its rocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 I step away for 5 minutes and there’s the rug pool. Come on GFS , be right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 GFS having its morning run that the EURO had last Thursday before yesterday's storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 18 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: NAM aside, what good are anomalies when determing rain/snow. A lot of that red area supports snow We're after accumulating snow. that's one point. Not necessarily profiles that support snow. The other is - HP/LP it's all relative. Will the cold win? Well it's surrounded by relatively warmer air. Cold is on the run - relatively warm air is overtaking it. You also don't get that classic CCB, which really makes for the big events. That's the point of these depictions, in laymen's terms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Almost no change though...it was like a 10 mile shift....nothing like the NAM. Hopefully NAM is off its rocker. I wasn't a fan verbatim, but yeah hopefully NAM is too aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Stick with the varsity squad, mesos way out of useful range. 12z will be revealing… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 I see the GFS vs most other guidance. Maybe I'm missing something? Euro/EPS looks more like rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: actually... the 06z trended N by some comparing the 00z run. It's not a one time thing.. But the 06z GFS went colder... and with the Euro tending to collapse... so the consensus sign of the deltas (-dm/dt) are not in favor of the + dNAM/dt ( crude math) of these two recent NAM runs. It's a weird winter... every model or foresight there is has had equal chance to score a coup, but nothing has This has definitely been the case... nobody wants to win... and we all lose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 First model run with good sampling of the ULL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: I see the GFS vs most other guidance. Maybe I'm missing something? Euro/EPS looks more like rgem. Eps members look more like the gfs I'm not getting anything down here but the confluence to the north should be enough for interior NY and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Icon actually ticked colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 We ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Lets go Deutschland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: We ICON. Actually looked a lot like the GFS that run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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