RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 58 minutes ago, FXWX said: here is the 48 hour GFS ending Sunday 12z Expect a 50mile tick in either direction inside 48hr but I’m leaning it will be south. It could equate to a warmer aloft but colder surface trend though. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Expect a 50mile tick in either direction inside 48hr but I’m leaning it will be south. It could equate to a warmer aloft but colder surface trend though. I don't even envision mid levels trending much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: My soul could use it. Much needed. The 7" yesterday was awesome-but would really love to have a well put together, consolidated storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't even envision mid levels trending much warmer. Another East flow event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't even envision mid levels trending much warmer. I could see me down here transitioning from snow to a bunch of sleet and maybe some rain towards the end 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't even envision mid levels trending much warmer. Meant for down here. I don’t think any warmer aloft trends get north of CT/MA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Confluence looks just a tick weaker on the NAM through 48h, but the main shortwave is also weaker and the western trough is shallower, so not sure how this one will play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: The 7" yesterday was awesome-but would really love to have a well put together, consolidated storm. My 1.5" of slush yesterday was awesome, but really love when freshly fallen snow isn't transparent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Meant for down here. I don’t think any warmer aloft trends get north of CT/MA border. Oh, okay. Yea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2023 Author Share Posted March 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Confluence looks just a tick weaker on the NAM through 48h, but the main shortwave is also weaker and the western trough is shallower, so not sure how this one will play out. It’s 72 hours, so it’s precisely in the mandatory fuck up window of the Nam 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: It’s 72 hours, so it’s precisely in the mandatory fuck up window of the Nam It's coming in colder anyway despite the slightly weaker confluence because of the other two factors I mentioned....weaker shortwave and less WC troughing pushing up heights downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 NAM is mostly sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Eh, now it looks warmer at 63 hours...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Ripping the s/w north again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Yeah that is ka ka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah that is ka ka. Lame solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 NAM is good at feeling that warm tongue... beware...beware!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Nothing says 22/23 like a cold rain on a Saturday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It’s 72 hours, so it’s precisely in the mandatory fuck up window of the Nam Exactly this. It doesn’t mean much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Ripping the s/w north again. Yeah initially the S/w was weaker which kept downstream heights lower, but then it drifted north at a further west latitude than the prior run after about 57 hours...and that's the key. Those further west solutions just don't give us the good front end thump. Sent the goods into upstate NY again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 It's shite. Another tick S on the 12z globals (or two on the Euro) would be helpful. If things stagnant or even start converging, sleet will be my ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2023 Author Share Posted March 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's coming in colder anyway despite the slightly weaker confluence because of the other two factors I mentioned....weaker shortwave and less WC troughing pushing up heights downstream. Lol... yeah...I was being 'sardonical' ...but I'm pretty sure we're going to be entering into a bit of a meso weirdness for the next day and half, as these type tools are really no where near their wheelhouse at this range - you know this ...for the general audience. I really feel at 3.5 days lead we gotta make the call here and predict the f'er at this point, and anyone that does gets a bit of latitude because for one... the gradient is tight. No one ( or model either ) can be held accountable if wiggles at grid scales means the difference between 9.4" of snow and some IP taint, vs 3.2" with ZR ..., vs cold rain, or 14.1" of pure snow... and on and so on. It's one reason why the colder trends were encouraging, because between the confluence N, and the semi permanent ridge wall S-SE, there is, ironic for needle threading, higher confidence in the primary --> secondary in the Bite region model to me. It's the "path of lessening resistance" ..but if/when doing so (obviously) in a colder total environment, affords those nuanced wiggles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Shoveling off roofs in the lakes region while I rototill the garden, 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 That NAM run personified 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 The differences between the NAM/GFS are astonishing. But regardless, it appears this system is going to be weakening relatively quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2023 Author Share Posted March 1, 2023 clock work with the NAM... 72 hours it hangs it's ass over the punch bowl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Nam looks good for CNE/NNE. 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 12z runs start in an hour. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Going to have to rely quite heavily on getting good upper level divergence to help with blossoming precipitation. There is a ton of dry air out ahead of the system and also a great deal of dry air that gets ingested into the system as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 The NAM would have been quite a bit worse if not for the night time onset. That aspect looks key across multiple pieces of guidance. It's effin' warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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