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Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event


Typhoon Tip
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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Confluence looks just a tick weaker on the NAM through 48h, but the main shortwave is also weaker and the western trough is shallower, so not sure how this one will play out.

It’s 72 hours, so it’s precisely in the mandatory fuck up window of the Nam

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s 72 hours, so it’s precisely in the mandatory fuck up window of the Nam

It's coming in colder anyway despite the slightly weaker confluence because of the other two factors I mentioned....weaker shortwave and less WC troughing pushing up heights downstream.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Ripping the s/w north again.

Yeah initially the S/w was weaker which kept downstream heights lower, but then it drifted north at a further west latitude than the prior run after about 57 hours...and that's the key. Those further west solutions just don't give us the good front end thump. Sent the goods into upstate NY again.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's coming in colder anyway despite the slightly weaker confluence because of the other two factors I mentioned....weaker shortwave and less WC troughing pushing up heights downstream.

Lol...

yeah...I was being 'sardonical' ...but I'm pretty sure we're going to be entering into a bit of a meso weirdness for the next day and half, as these type tools are really no where near their wheelhouse at this range - you know this ...for the general audience.  

I really feel at 3.5 days lead we gotta make the call here and predict the f'er at this point, and anyone that does gets a bit of latitude because for one... the gradient is tight.  No one ( or model either ) can be held accountable if wiggles at grid scales means the difference between 9.4" of snow and some IP taint, vs 3.2" with ZR ..., vs cold rain, or 14.1" of pure snow... and on and so on. 

It's one reason why the colder trends were encouraging, because between the confluence N, and the semi permanent ridge wall S-SE, there is, ironic for needle threading, higher confidence in the primary --> secondary in the Bite region model to me.  It's the "path of lessening resistance" ..but if/when doing so (obviously) in a colder total environment, affords those nuanced wiggles.

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