Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[FXWX]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe someone can post the wxbell snow maps. Otherwise the cumulative ones get noisy with whatever happens tomorrow morning up north. 

here is the 48 hour GFS ending Sunday 12z

[DJln491]

nice ticks south.   prepping mentally for potential drifting back north a little over the next couple days. gotta hedge for the psyche and mental well-being. 

 

btw- this is how you run a thread..."monitoring guidance"...."becoming more likely"

Not loads blown on the first page with declarations of top 10 events

[ORH_wxman]

06z EPS made a nice little tick south too.

[George001]

Just now, FXWX said:

here is the 48 hour GFS ending Sunday 12z

12-16 inches is a lot for an SWFE. As Tblizz likes to say, I think we will see a 50% haircut on all those totals over the next few days. The snow axis will also move north.

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z EPS made a nice little tick south too.

It seems the system Thursday has been ticking south each run too. I would assume that plays a role for the next system....

[CoastalWx]

Man gfs is like a Miller B practically. Still wish the antecedent airmass were better, but I think it would work here. At least it’s at night. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

12-16 inches is a lot for an SWFE. As Tblizz likes to say, I think we will see a 50% haircut on all those totals over the next few days. The snow axis will also move north.

It's because the GFS isn't really showing a SWFE...it's almost morphed into a Miller B with closed mid-level circulations going south of us.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Man gfs is like a Miller B practically. Still wish the antecedent airmass were better, but I think it would work here. At least it’s at night. 

Just has to be cold enough. Gfs looks fine off the cape for the most part 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Anyone post a 6z eps clown 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Just has to be cold enough. Gfs looks fine off the cape for the most part 

Yeah it’s riding the line to be honest, but hopefully other guidance cools too.

[dryslot]

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Anyone post a 6z eps clown 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Thanks !

[MJO812]

Eps members also shifting south 

[SouthCoastMA]

I need about 50 more miles here but I'd feel pretty good along I90 right now

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I need about 50 more miles here but I'd feel pretty good along I90 right now

I'm not all that comfortable yet along the pike....I'd prob want to see one more shift S by at least the non-GFS guidance. I'm always nervous about little north ticks inside 48.

The one factor that may help in this is the block is in the process of retrograding/strengthening, so I do like that mode of change occurring which was also present in yesterday's event which helped shove it into a CT special. That event never really came back north...it sort of tried to at the last second but only did so marginally.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it’s riding the line to be honest, but hopefully other guidance cools too.

This is inverse from last event...NE maybe best, SW worst

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man gfs is like a Miller B practically. Still wish the antecedent airmass were better, but I think it would work here. At least it’s at night. 

Agreed … and I have less issue negotiating for blue during the blue times of year when marginality has an actual high pressure situated N feeding in 

 correction vector points that way 

[SouthCoastMA]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not all that comfortable yet along the pike....I'd prob want to see one more shift S by at least the non-GFS guidance. I'm always nervous about little north ticks inside 48.

The one factor that may help in this is the block is in the process of retrograding/strengthening, so I do like that mode of change occurring which was also present in yesterday's event which helped shove it into a CT special. That event never really came back north...it sort of tried to at the last second but only did so marginally.

Euro currently has the primary in Detroit, while GFS gets it close to Cleveland. Ideally the primary never makes it past Columbus, which could happen if models continue to tick stronger with the block.

I'd lock in the GFS though if given the offer, since those late minute north trends are always lurking

[CoastalWx]

GFS BUFKIT is practically all snow to PYM, although you could argue a little sleet or brief mix with rain there. Nasty Sat morning on the coast with 35kt winds and snow.

[mahk_webstah]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man gfs is like a Miller B practically. Still wish the antecedent airmass were better, but I think it would work here. At least it’s at night. 

WPC (yeah baby) shows a Miller B with a 996 coastal taking over inside the benchmark and strengthening.

[HinghamBoss]

Am I wrong to be skeptical?  Know the setup is different but the seasonal trend this way keeps me from getting excited about GFS

[mahk_webstah]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not all that comfortable yet along the pike....I'd prob want to see one more shift S by at least the non-GFS guidance. I'm always nervous about little north ticks inside 48.

The one factor that may help in this is the block is in the process of retrograding/strengthening, so I do like that mode of change occurring which was also present in yesterday's event which helped shove it into a CT special. That event never really came back north...it sort of tried to at the last second but only did so marginally.

Yes it seems an assumption by many of north ticks.  I wouldn't think they would be too significant, and perhaps we see more south ticks.

[mahk_webstah]

I mean I think the hope for up here is the strong front end due to a very powerful primary getting far enough north.  But the coastal tracks E or ENE so that puts CNH on the north edge of the good stuff and Ray in Jpot-ville.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, HinghamBoss said:

Am I wrong to be skeptical?  Know the setup is different but the seasonal trend this way keeps me from getting excited about GFS

You should be for another day until we get clarity.

[NorEastermass128]

7 minutes ago, HinghamBoss said:

Am I wrong to be skeptical?  Know the setup is different but the seasonal trend this way keeps me from getting excited about GFS

I’m skeptical until I verify the low end of the forecasted SF range. 

[Typhoon Tip]

It will be interesting to see if the models are edging that 700mb evolution right.  It’s like sparking closing off, off and on, in theses isohypses intervals.  I think it’s possible that if it gets that precarious .. it will just go ahead and close off. 

[ROOSTA]

Before the clocks Spring forward SNE will experience its largest snowfall of this year. Which won't be hard to achieve. 
This event appears to be sheared, not enough to consolidate or get excited about because it never gets its act together.
A 6-8" swath, maybe a jack of a foot from the slanted rulers in favored areas.
Getting close to the seasons swan song!

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, HinghamBoss said:

Am I wrong to be skeptical?  Know the setup is different but the seasonal trend this way keeps me from getting excited about GFS

This is the first winter storm we have had all season with a bonafide NAO block and no PV in Vancouver. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Yes it seems an assumption by many of north ticks.  I wouldn't think they would be too significant, and perhaps we see more south ticks.

Not worried about north trend at all.