wxsniss Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 0z / 12z... I think this is a significant step towards the consensus (led by king GFS?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, wxsniss said: 0z / 12z... I think this is a significant step towards the consensus (led by king GFS?) That's a great graphic to illustrate it! 18z was probably half way there. More ticks to. come most likely but we're running out of time also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: It actually keeps light snow going through Saturday night-inverted trof effect? Kind of similar to the trailing energy today. As Tip called it, the "leitmotif". Feels like variation of today's theme, except a much more robust system and earlier commitment to secondary before decay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: That's a great graphic to illustrate it! 18z was probably half way there. More ticks to. come most likely but we're running out of time also. If the goalposts are GFS and Euro, we are golden. Still would rather Euro continue to trend towards GFS to give us more buffer. It's really striking how steady the GFS has been with this vs. Euro cycling back 10+ runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, wxsniss said: If the goalposts are GFS and Euro, we are golden. Still would rather Euro continue to trend towards GFS to give us more buffer. It's really striking how steady the GFS has been with this vs. Euro cycling back 10+ runs. I think the Euro and GFS will be similar by 12z tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 I’d prefer the 06z to have kept the surface below freezing, but it’s a tick colder aloft. Just about all snow here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 BTV's take on the system from the AFD: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 From 00Z Saturday onward is where models diverge. While there`s agreement that there will be some sort of secondary low development along the southern New England coast Friday night, the strength and position of the aforementioned surface high pressure north of the Canadian border remains in question. Where the GDPS was the outlier the past 2 days offering a stronger high and QPF suppressed across our central/southern zones and southward, the GFS has now jumped on board while the latest GDPS has trended slightly north. The ECMWF remains the most northward solution with the heaviest QPF, but it should be noted the mean of its ensemble members keep it south across central/southern New England. So what does all this mean? Well, while confidence is increasing (quite high actually) that the forecast area will receive precipitation, confidence remains low as to where the heaviest QPF will occur. The good news is that the ptype is currently looking like all snow, with the worst case scenario being some sleet mixing in across southern VT. Probabilities from blended guidance for >4" of snow are 60-70%, but for >8" it drops off to 30-40%. A snow storm with minor to moderate impacts seems likely Friday night through Saturday with our best first guess being a widespread 5-8" from north to south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Please gfs be right. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Please gfs be right. Oh how we pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Oh how we pray. My soul could use it. Much needed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: My soul could use it. Much needed. Gfs saving souls in 2023…oh how far that model has come. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gfs saving souls in 2023…oh how far that model has come. I’ve vocally mentioned my displeasure with the euro lately. I hope this adds to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Looks like 6z Euro ticked south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gfs saving souls in 2023…oh how far that model has come. It’s gonna be right…you could see it yesterday taking the lead with the block and confluence stronger, Euro is caving slowly and will continue to today. GFS dragging the Euro kicking and screaming to the finish line. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Looks like 6z Euro ticked south WTTTE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 ‘Merica #1! My older sister used to call Friday night snowstorms “cozy” storms. We’d all watch TGIF, eat crinkle fries, drink hot chocolate, play Nintendo, and lay out our stuff to go sledding in the morning. Those were the days. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 06z euro a little colder again. Baby steps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Let’s get that last finishing rub. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Let’s get that last finishing rub. Lets get this NAO to shift this more ( this looks good for the majority of SNE ) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2023 Author Share Posted March 1, 2023 8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS solution is getting close to a Miller B. Getting closed circulations in the midlevels Close ...I mentioned this was trying to move that way yesterday. You can observe that the ballast of the mid level wind max is now actually S of NYC-BOS axis, so technically...it's already starting to fail the SWFE total deep layer mechanics... In fact, I'd be perfectly happy saying the 00z/06z GFS blend is a hybrid Miller B already 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Does anyone have a snowfall map for the 6z GFS and Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, jaf said: Does anyone have a snowfall map for the 6z GFS and Euro? 14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Lol, looks about right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lock it!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Maybe someone can post the wxbell snow maps. Otherwise the cumulative ones get noisy with whatever happens tomorrow morning up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 36 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: ‘Merica #1! My older sister used to call Friday night snowstorms “cozy” storms. We’d all watch TGIF, eat crinkle fries, drink hot chocolate, play Nintendo, and lay out our stuff to go sledding in the morning. Those were the days. 90's kid FTW. The best part about Friday night snowstorms is you could have/go to sleepovers - and do the same thing you describe. --- Timing of this looks to have slowed down a bit, and duration extended. Nature of moving towards a Miller B vs. SWFE, I'm assuming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 24hr snowfall on 6z GFS, 10:1 key thing to highlight... this is all under 84hrs I think for the first time this season...! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, wxsniss said: 24hr snowfall on 6z GFS, 10:1 key thing to highlight... this is all under 84hrs I think for the first time this season...! Lol, look at that Fairfield county cutoff here in CT. Otherwise that is double digits for most of the state. Impressive if the GFS actually has a clue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, wxsniss said: 24hr snowfall on 6z GFS, 10:1 key thing to highlight... this is all under 84hrs I think for the first time this season...! Hmm, was it out all night drinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 11 minutes ago, wxsniss said: 24hr snowfall on 6z GFS, 10:1 key thing to highlight... this is all under 84hrs I think for the first time this season...! I’m caught under the CT Snow Triangle between DT and Ginxy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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