Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[brooklynwx99]

he main difference between the GEFS and EPS (& GEPS for that matter) is the handling of the N and S streams and their effect on the confluence in SE Canada

the GEFS keeps much of the vorticity in the trough itself, leading to a higher amplitude S/W and not as much confluence scooting out over SE Canada. this leads to higher heights and the mean storm track to the west of us

however, the EPS and GEPS have more of the northern stream moving ahead of the trough, allowing for significantly more confluence over SE Canada, leading to the opposite effect. therefore, we get much a much snowier solution with most of the SLPs tracking offshore

tough to say which model has the right idea. I would lead against the GEFS only because it's been inconsistent and it doesn't have as much support as the EPS. the GEFS is also underdispersive and often times will follow the OP, which has been erratic. look how awful of a job it did with the Monday system. the GEFS solution is certainly possible due to a lack of a true semipermanent 50/50 ULL, but so are the solutions of the EPS and GEPS

either way, there remains the potential for a significant snowfall event over the NE US, even down to the coast. we should see one camp cave over the next model cycle or two, as we're getting into the 5 day range now

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Disagree, highly doubt this phases with the PV.  Destructive interference is much more likely

so you think this misses south? 
 

i believe that’s the least likely outcome.
 

Current probs in my view:

Warm/Rainer for SNE, heavy snow interior NNE > New England Snowstorm > cutter> miss south

[jbenedet]

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

so you think this misses south? 
 

i believe that’s the least likely outcome.
 

Current probs in my view:

Warm/Rainer for SNE, heavy snow interior NNE > New England Snowstorm > cutter> miss south

Your call for tomorrow's storm was spot on .

You really think this is going to be an inland runner ?

[MJO812]

Just now, jbenedet said:

I guess they haven't looked at the EPO

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

he main difference between the GEFS and EPS (& GEPS for that matter) is the handling of the N and S streams and their effect on the confluence in SE Canada

the GEFS keeps much of the vorticity in the trough itself, leading to a higher amplitude S/W and not as much confluence scooting out over SE Canada. this leads to higher heights and the mean storm track to the west of us

however, the EPS and GEPS have more of the northern stream moving ahead of the trough, allowing for significantly more confluence over SE Canada, leading to the opposite effect. therefore, we get much a much snowier solution with most of the SLPs tracking offshore

tough to say which model has the right idea. I would lead against the GEFS only because it's been inconsistent and it doesn't have as much support as the EPS. the GEFS is also underdispersive and often times will follow the OP, which has been erratic. look how awful of a job it did with the Monday system. the GEFS solution is certainly possible due to a lack of a true semipermanent 50/50 ULL, but so are the solutions of the EPS and GEPS

either way, there remains the potential for a significant snowfall event over the NE US, even down to the coast. we should see one camp cave over the next model cycle or two, as we're getting into the 5 day range now

GFS suite did a much better job with the Tuesday system in the medium range...it had a much better handle on the slightly weaker blocking being displaced to the east along with the 50/50.

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS suite did a much better job with the Tuesday system in the medium range...it had a much better handle on the slightly weaker blocking being displaced to the east along with the 50/50.

that is true. the ECMWF schooled it in the short range with the confluence, though. schooled pretty much every other model

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that is true. the ECMWF schooled it in the short range with the confluence, though. schooled pretty much every other model

Which makes sense...most of its skill is within that <day 4 wheelhouse...but this system is not yet there....tomorrow.

Big 24 hours.

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Your call for tomorrow's storm was spot on .

You really think this is going to be an inland runner ?

Thanks.

6z GEFS is good baseline for what I *currently* believe is most likely. I think slightly warmer version of that.

But confidence is low at this stage. Too early to identify track, too much uncertainty with the players in Canada.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm afraid to say it after getting burned by the Tuesday fiasco, but I would not be suprised by a compromise, which would be very good for us.

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Thanks.

6z GEFS is good baseline for what I *currently* believe is most likely. I think slightly warmer version of that.

But confidence is low at this stage. Too early to identify track, too much uncertainty with the players in Canada.

I think it's more probable the confluence will result in a miller B like solution. You can already see the 6z GFS try to attempt that. 

But it's too early to tell just yet

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm afraid to say it after getting burned by the Tuesday fiasco, but I would not be suprised by a compromise, which would be very good for us.

 

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think it's more probable the confluence will result in a miller B like solution. You can already see the 6z GFS try to attempt that. 

But it's too early to tell just yet

Yes.

[jbenedet]

23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think it's more probable the confluence will result in a miller B like solution. You can already see the 6z GFS try to attempt that. 

But it's too early to tell just yet

I believe this primary will be quite a bit stronger than what we are seeing with Tuesday event. 970’s lows don’t go without a fight.  Couple that with weaker east based blocking, and then layer that with a warmer antecedent airmass.

I think even if you get a Miller B evolution you have broad ptype concerns due to primary hanging on and antecedent warmth.

I will concede to a cold/snowy evolution *if* the PV timing is much more EPS—esque.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I believe this primary will be quite a bit stronger than what we are seeing with Tuesday event. 970’s lows don’t go without a fight.  Couple that with weaker east based blocking, and then layer that with a warmer antecedent airmass.

I think even if you get a Miller B evolution you have broad ptype concerns due to primary hanging on and antecedent warmth.

I will concede to a cold/snowy evolution *if* the PV timing is much more EPS—esque.

 

I feel like we need to thread the needle on timing any PV intreraction. I agree that earlier interaction like 00z OP GFS is rain for many, but you also want it to interact faster than the 00z EURO or QPF will end up an issue for some. I agree with you that if the 00z OP Euro played out, the system would probably get somewhat further N than depicted....but how far?

[Go Kart Mozart]

Tack vs. tact.

[Ginx snewx]

Icon definitely came North. Adds another half a foot up here

[ineedsnow]

GFS even more amped

[MJO812]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

GFS even more amped

LOL insane

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Icon definitely came North. Adds another half a foot up here

I'd rather the GFS rainer than that.

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I guess they haven't looked at the EPO

 

That's before we go cold around the 10th.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GFS is over Falmouth...def a little less amped than 00z.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd rather the GFS rainer than that.

Lol what a guy 

[SnowGoose69]

The system at 90-108 is absolutely going to have an impact on where this storm goes

[MJO812]

Cmc has alot of confluence to the north at 114. This will be a Miller B on this run.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

LOL insane

Not buying it. Everything else is a graze or MA hit. 

[MJO812]

[mahk_webstah]

34 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Icon definitely came North. Adds another half a foot up here

 

feeds the sne geese, makes Ant very happy, the Philly crew gets something finally to be happy about post SB, and even the DC crowd gets a taste.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc has alot of confluence to the north at 114. This will be a Miller B on this run.

Big hit for you bruh.

[Spanks45]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc has alot of confluence to the north at 114. This will be a Miller B on this run.

Love seeing the high pressure North of Maine getting stronger as the low is pushing towards it. Should make for some fun times in between. Hopefully we are all on the wintry side of it...

[mahk_webstah]

CMC is a slider east but NYC-PHL get some goods and SNE too.  Might be a sacrifice we need to make for the overall sanity.  But that is the southern outlier so far.