Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

But-it does seem to be coming back to earth or consensus.  0Z should be helpful.

Yeah it’s nice to see the northward nudges stop. No argument there. Hopefully it can actually be sustained. Need to keep that shortwave from gaining so much latitude in the MS River valley. Swing it through the Ohio river basin instead and we’d do quite well even if we flipped to sleet. You’d get a ferocious front ender first. 
 

I mentioned this before, but when it gains all that latitude further west, the best WCB forcing goes up the St Lawrence valley 

[Snowcrazed71]

23 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

23 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yup that's my read as well

 

Correct me from wrong, but I feel that in the past winter seasons you had tended to favor the Euro. Any thoughts on this year? ( Not being as accurate this season has passed ).

GFS has been more consistent showing the storm as a colder solution and the Euro has it much farther north.

Are you going with a blend or would you side with one of the two global models ( Not to put you on the spot lol ).  But you are our guy!!  ;-)

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Correct me from wrong, but I feel that in the past winter seasons you had tended to favor the Euro. Any thoughts on this year? ( Not being as accurate this season has passed ).

GFS has been more consistent showing the storm as a colder solution and the Euro has it much farther north.

Are you going with a blend or would you side with one of the two global models ( Not to put you on the spot lol ).  But you are our guy!!  ;-)

Gotta ways to go before we/he can say which model has the better idea. But with that strong confluence and Neg NAO exerting its muscle, I think this will trend south some due to that idea. 
 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

35 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Gotta ways to go before we/he can say which model has the better idea. But with that strong confluence and Neg NAO exerting its muscle, I think this will trend south some due to that idea. 
 

 

I like that your hedging more this season then in the past. Tracking is more enjoyable that way and when it goes right, it’s satisfying…it’s even satisfying when the hedge is against snow ha.

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I like that your hedging more this season then in the past. Tracking is more enjoyable that way and when it goes right, it’s satisfying…it’s even satisfying when the hedge is against snow ha.

Very true.  Thank you Luke. Hoping the hedge is more right than not lol. 
 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Very true.  Thank you Luke. Hoping the hedge is more right than not lol. 
 

 

Oh yea my success rate is probably pretty bad lol but it fulfills the gambler in me. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

18z eps still looks the most amped based off TT maps. Anyone have the individual members?

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

18z eps still looks the most amped based off TT maps. Anyone have the individual members?

I got you. Totals from 12z Friday onward.  Removes any earlier snow/precip.

And the 24 hour trend from yesterday's 18z run to the above image.  Definitely a solid tick south in the mean compared to 24 hours ago.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Thanks. It’s still the most NW package though I think. 

[wxsniss]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Here's a conspiracy theory ... 

 ... notice how about 18 months ago... last year or so, the ECMWF org relaxed policy over their products quite a bit ... started allowing general access to viewing? 

This performance shit started raising eyebrows around then.   Hmm   Who here loves a good coincidence ?!

I commented on this last night... GFS has been remarkably steady for ~10 runs now. Euro quite the opposite, with steps north that (hopefully) may have overshot by over-amplifying the primary and holding on too long.

So... in the growing chatter about dethroning the king, this upcoming system will be one of the more prominent showdowns of GFS vs. Euro.

[powderfreak]

Ha, Runnaway, you wanted the individuals not the mean.  This includes some earlier stuff too, not much but some in northern areas.

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, Runnaway, you wanted the individuals not the mean.

 

Surprising amount of decent hits in there 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Have not even looked at this,  looks like rain here from what I see posted.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, Runnaway, you wanted the individuals not the mean.  This includes some earlier stuff too, not much but some in northern areas.

 

All good man, mean clown was good too ha. But yea, a good amount of snowy regionwide members there…interesting.

[dryslot]

27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, Runnaway, you wanted the individuals not the mean.  This includes some earlier stuff too, not much but some in northern areas.

 

Solid.

[CT Rain]

NAM is quite cold... but quite slow. 

[weathafella]

NAM looks reasonable given the range bit slower than prior guidance 

[WxWatcher007]

One domino…down…

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

NAM looks reasonable given the range bit slower than prior guidance 

Good, good. Maybe I can sneak my back to BDL at 10pm before it gets nasty. 

[NW_of_GYX]

18 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Solid.

Can’t find a bad one in there. 

[Thunderblizzard]

0z RGEM looks like it got a little bit colder as well.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

18 minutes ago, weathafella said:

NAM looks reasonable given the range bit slower than prior guidance 

18z Euro and 0z nam start precip at very similar times . Nam has a bit more latitude on N side of initial thump 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

0z RGEM looks like it got a little bit colder as well.

That was another cold look. 

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

18z Euro and 0z nam start precip at very similar times . Nam has a bit more latitude on N side of initial thump 

NAM trying to keep Ray to Tip snow.  Looks bad at first then gets shunted east.  The block doing it’s thing.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was another cold look. 

Yup, some consensus early on with mixed line down to the Pike, south of the NAM.

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

NAM trying to keep Ray to Tip snow.  Looks bad at first then gets shunted east.  The block doing it’s thing.

Heh 

the ptype on TT is south of that

[dryslot]

36 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Can’t find a bad one in there. 

None

[weathafella]

Here comes the gfs-fabulous!

[ORH_wxman]

GFS looks like it may come in colder than 18z

[weathafella]

Most of sne and lower NNE winners.