Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[brooklynwx99]

considerably more confluence on the 18z GEFS... makes sense with the WB -NAO establishing itself. this is the one thing that could really help this storm out

[brooklynwx99]

and as a result...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lets wait and see.

Yeah, nothing could possibly go wrong.

[George001]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, nothing could possibly go wrong.

Do you think it will come back north? 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

and as a result...

The whole hemisphere has been yawing back and forth like that about ever other or every 2nd other run. 

One interesting thing I've been noticing... whenever the core of that hornet sting is a little deeper/potent, it's always when the confluence is flatter and vice versa.  interesting - it's like it's not allowed to be powerful with a confluence, only without it... heh.

I almost wonder if the models are using the wave space of the hornet sting to "push" against the might of the NAO exertion entirely...it seems like it. 

[SouthCoastMA]

that's a lot of sleet here. and I take, verbatim

[powderfreak]

Unfortunate trend but good to stop the north ticks. Merge the GFS and Euro blend.

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh... the TT cinema of the GFS never gets the tick line N of the Pike - that's the coldest I've seen this thing modeled.

I'm also still fighting a sinking feeling over attenuation due to moving headlong into Tyson's fist.   I'm convinced there has to be some... but, the GFS is ejecting a pretty big goodly bolt of momentum with this thing and so having more to conserve is serving the destiny well for us here.  But I gotta say, with the same scaffolding in place, it can't back down or this event will go right with it in lockstep.  Bank that!

Consider us warned... 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Also, the GFS is trended S with the wind max... now cutting more down the latitude of the L.I. sound, instead of central NE.

If we can get that to come down to Jersy, we have a real CCB/comma head change. It's actually hinted on this 18z rendition

[mahk_webstah]

I like the WPC take this afternoon:

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
159 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2023

Valid 12Z Fri Mar 03 2023 - 12Z Tue Mar 07 2023

***Major storm system is expected to produce widespread heavy rain
and severe thunderstorms from the interior Gulf Coast states to
the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, as well as snow for the Great
Lakes and New England late this week***

Latest guidance from the 00Z/06Z cycles was reasonably well
clustered for the system affecting the eastern U.S.
Friday-Saturday, with the 00Z CMC and especially UKMET initially
somewhat south/slower than the GFS-ECMWF and the three main
ensemble means. The new 12Z cycle has added to the spread though,
with the GFS/GEFS mean trending faster but the UKMET/CMC still
south as of early Friday. By Saturday the 12Z GFS/GEFS is still
fairly extreme on the fast side with the Atlantic wave while the
UKMET/CMC catch up to the ECMWF/ECMWF mean.

The storm system that is currently affecting California is progged
will likely reach near Arkansas/Missouri by Friday morning with an
expansive area of moderate to heavy rainfall extending east across
much of the Ohio Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorms are a
good possibility across portions of the Deep South and extending
to the southeast U.S. coast on Friday where favorable kinematic
and instability parameters will exist in the warm sector. Check
the latest Storm Prediction Center products for more information
on the severe weather threats. Farther north, expect another
round of impactful snow from the southern Great Lakes into parts
of the Northeast, with some locations possibly getting over a foot
of snow accumulation by Saturday. There may also be a transition
zone of wintry mix between the rain/snow areas east of the Great
Lakes. The expected strength of the surface low will make strong
winds another factor to contend with, especially across much of
the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
 

Guidance expects the upper pattern
over eastern Canada and the Atlantic to become more blocky with
time, as ridging builds back across southern Greenland and an
upper low settles over or near the Canadian Maritimes.

[Typhoon Tip]

Why am I analyzing what everyone already knows...

[Typhoon Tip]

Even the JMA agrees with the GGEM/GFS...   

Don't know what use that serves pointing that out, but it is what it is.  

In fact, the GGEM 12z is almost indistinguishable from the  18z GFS ..and both their ensemble means are too close to quibble over. In all seriousness I'm not using the Euro for this system at all at this point in time.  That may change if it heads-outta ass, but the guidance consensus is overwhelmingly doing what it should do at fuckum 4 days lead - agreeing!  jesus christ.   And we're fretting over these wayward pieces of rat pellet model runs like dreary omens and 'telling' ...oooh.

Rant over... haha

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Even the JMA agrees with the GGEM/GFS...   

Don't know what use that serves pointing that out, but it is what it is.  

In fact, the GGEM 12z is almost indistinguishable from the  18z GFS ..and both their ensemble means are too close to quibble over. In all seriousness I'm not using the Euro for this system at all at this point in time.  That may change if it heads-outta ass, but the guidance consensus is overwhelmingly doing what it should do a fuckum 4 days lead - agreeing!  jesus christ.   And we're fretting over these wayward pieces of rat pellets like their 'telling' ...oooh.

Rant over... haha

Tough to.pick sides yet

[WinterWolf]

GFS makes more sense than Euro…confluence strong and NAO too…yet Euro keeps plowing into the block like it isn’t there. Doesn’t make sense. Euro Will start to cave to GFS idea. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

GFS makes more sense than Euro…confluence strong and NAO too…yet Euro keeps plowing into the block like it isn’t there. Doesn’t make sense. Euro Will cave to GFS. 

Here's a conspiracy theory ... 

 ... notice how about 18 months ago... last year or so, the ECMWF org relaxed policy over their products quite a bit ... started allowing general access to viewing? 

This performance shit started raising eyebrows around then.   Hmm   Who here loves a good coincidence ?!

[dryslot]

I had to lol after the 18z GFS came out and now its locked in.

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Here's a conspiracy theory ... 

 ... notice how about 18 months ago... last year or so, the ECMWF org relaxed policy over their products quite a bit ... started allowing general access to viewing? 

This performance shit started raising eyebrows around then.   Hmm   Who here loves a good coincidence ?!

Hmmm…interesting. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I had to lol after the 18z GFS came out and now it’s locked in.

Im Not locking it in..just makes a lil more synoptic sense imo. 

[ineedsnow]

GEFS mean is over a foot here but I'll believe it when I see it 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

33 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GEFS mean is over a foot here but I'll believe it when I see it 

She’s coming.  You should expect more in the 8” range but still should be a decent hit.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Unfortunate trend but good to stop the north ticks. Merge the GFS and Euro blend.

Just give me about 50-75 more miles south please. 

[dryslot]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

She’s coming.  You should expect more in the 8” range but still should be a decent hit.

Its coming.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just give me about 50-75 more miles south please. 

That’s a distinct possibility. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s a distinct possibility. 

There is that chance . 
my guess is if it did it would be a tad weaker but I’m sure S folks wood enjoy it 

[Hoth]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s a distinct possibility. 

I’d love more snow, but will settle for a scalping down here. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Hoth said:

I’d love more snow, but will settle for a scalping down here. 

Lol…sleet your ass off down there. 

[Thunderblizzard]

18z Euro remains pretty firm... a hair colder compared to 12z.

[CT Rain]

4 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

18z Euro remains pretty firm... a hair colder compared to 12z.

Yup that's my read as well

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

18z Euro remains pretty firm... a hair colder compared to 12z.

Yeah didn’t trend like the other 18z runs. Just a very small amount…onto 00z. 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah didn’t trend like the other 18z runs. Just a very small amount…onto 00z. 

But-it does seem to be coming back to earth or consensus.  0Z should be helpful.