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Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event


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Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah I mean, wouldn’t say no to like 0.75” QPF as snow to add to the pack.  My guess is though the QPF is over done south of Canada… that front end comes through fast.

Thats one of those situations that looks ok but then the mesos start showing like 0.40-0.55” water instead of 0.60-0.90” or something before dry slot.

Agreed...I'm not impressed by the forcing at all on a Euro solution....best WCB stuff gets shoved up into upstate NY like over near MSS through YUL (Montreal). Any snow is better than no snow, but that type of solution looks pretty weak sauce overall. If things can get pushed just a shade east, I'd like the overall forcing look better for New England.

 

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23 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

ukie was 6 or 7 here and almost nothing for the valley areas near Springfield.. so compared to the GFS and CMC it was crap

Heh ...you don't have to defend yourself.  

no one should read any post like, "so-and-so was a big improvement" or "so-and-so was a piece of shit," grab their keys and take off with an impression of the model run at hand. haha... 

I was really being sarcastic.  You should always look for your self.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I mean, wouldn’t say no to like 0.75” QPF as snow to add to the pack.  My guess is though the QPF is over done south of Canada… that front end comes through fast.

Thats one of those situations that looks ok but then the mesos start showing like 0.40-0.55” water instead of 0.60-0.90” or something before dry slot.

Yeah, Like i've been saying, This has similarities to today, A lot of that precip will end up getting ground up unless there's some enhancement of sort, Euro does try to fire up a meso low over the elbow this run to keep it going.

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31 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Eps suggests the op run is one of the warmer members-mean isn’t far from gfs.

Yeah EPS is almost identical to 12z yesterday. Only noise level changes past 24 hours, despite some shifts north or south at times… it’s ended up very similar to yesterday so no trend.

B8DACDFA-50C2-4A89-8546-38F11F6AD865.thumb.png.d9d83179b1c8f61ddc16022a3a788ca5.png

 

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah EPS is almost identical to 12z yesterday. Only noise level changes past 24 hours, despite some shifts north or south at times… it’s ended up very similar to yesterday so no trend.

B8DACDFA-50C2-4A89-8546-38F11F6AD865.thumb.png.d9d83179b1c8f61ddc16022a3a788ca5.png

 

Over the same areas this winter so far, Wash, Rinse, Repeat.

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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah EPS is almost identical to 12z yesterday. Only noise level changes past 24 hours, despite some shifts north or south at times… it’s ended up very similar to yesterday so no trend.

B8DACDFA-50C2-4A89-8546-38F11F6AD865.thumb.png.d9d83179b1c8f61ddc16022a3a788ca5.png

 

Do these maps count sleet as snow? I would imagine a lot of the blue area to the south gets a decent amount of sleet. 

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