Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I'm following this disturbance for the Thursday 'ENHANCED' ArkLaTex severe episode, noting differences in models, and looking to see when the 500 mb disturbance comes onshore, and 12Z tomorrow is earliest this is RAOB sampled, maybe 0Z, so, for my subforum severe threat, and I'd think your snow threat, it is at least half a day too early to go completely negative.

[CoastalWx]

Euro looks like it wants to shoot more north as well through hr 84.

[Typhoon Tip]

24 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I'm following this disturbance for the Thursday 'ENHANCED' ArkLaTex severe episode, noting differences in models, and looking to see when the 500 mb disturbance comes onshore, and 12Z tomorrow is earliest this is RAOB sampled, maybe 0Z, so, for my subforum severe threat, and I'd think your snow threat, it is at least half a day too early to go completely negative.

This thread doesn't have a huge participation today do to the ongoing event out of window, but a handful of posters did do drive by neg-head, snipes ... based upon lesser likely indicators.  It probably doesn't reflect the ballast of ideas on this system. 

[CoastalWx]

Dog shit solution. 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Dog shit solution. 

ukie was pretty crappy to

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

ukie was pretty crappy to

No it wasn’t.  I wonder however if euro pulls this one out and re-establishes itself….

[Typhoon Tip]

Wait... Jerry says the UKMET is like the GFS/GGEM, in a context that suggested it wasn't that bad.  Ineedsnow says it was crappy.

this is why I cannot really take 'model analysis' in here as very useful sometimes    I guess for starters, neither is really an "analysis"  ha

yeah...the Euro's doing something the other globals aren't.   It repositions the whole southern stream wave signature farther W... Not hugely, but enough that the whole thing then just ends up west because of that.  

[ORH_wxman]

Euro is def siding with those mesos from earlier this morning.

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Dog shit solution. 

Yeah that’s fast moving SWFE then dry slot.

[Spanks45]

984 mb low into SW Michigan is not going to bode well for most of SNE besides some frozen early on....who knows, maybe it doesn't have a clue at this point

[CoastalWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah that’s fast moving SWFE then dry slot.

It's another rusty coat hanger here.

[CT Rain]

Euro looks pretty NAM-like.

[ORH_wxman]

Not that much QPF when you have the best mechanics west of you....it tries to get crunched under us, but you have exhausted the best WCB forcing by then. So even the areas that sya mostly snow would struggle to get to warning criteria.

[powderfreak]

Congrats Montreal.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, weathafella said:

No it wasn’t.  I wonder however if euro pulls this one out and re-establishes itself….

didnt look great to me thinking 2 to 4 or 3 to 6 for now here... not feeling this one at all looking at the latest models

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wait... Jerry says the UKMET is like the GFS/GGEM, in a context that suggested it wasn't that bad.  Ineedsnow says it was crappy.

this is why I cannot really take 'model analysis' in here as very useful sometimes    I guess for starters, neither is really an "analysis"  ha

yeah...the Euro's doing something the other globals aren't.   It repositions the whole southern stream wave signature farther W... Not hugely, but enough that the whole thing then just ends up west because of that.  

Yes, Its tracking that s/w further west then other guidance at the moment.

[weathafella]

We do have muthufukkas to hang onto but that’s gfs sourced.

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wait... Jerry says the UKMET is like the GFS/GGEM, in a context that suggested it wasn't that bad.  Ineedsnow says it was crappy.

this is why I cannot really take 'model analysis' in here as very useful sometimes    I guess for starters, neither is really an "analysis"  ha

yeah...the Euro's doing something the other globals aren't.   It repositions the whole southern stream wave signature farther W... Not hugely, but enough that the whole thing then just ends up west because of that.  

So is it that deep trough coming into California at the same time causing this to run so far west? The block up in Greenland is quite impressive with a pinwheeling 50/50. One would think this wouldn't be able to gain so much latitude, so early on. Or is the block just too early to have any effect on this particular system?

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wait... Jerry says the UKMET is like the GFS/GGEM, in a context that suggested it wasn't that bad.  Ineedsnow says it was crappy.

this is why I cannot really take 'model analysis' in here as very useful sometimes    I guess for starters, neither is really an "analysis"  ha

yeah...the Euro's doing something the other globals aren't.   It repositions the whole southern stream wave signature farther W... Not hugely, but enough that the whole thing then just ends up west because of that.  

ukie was 6 or 7 here and almost nothing for the valley areas near Springfield.. so compared to the GFS and CMC it was crap

[dryslot]

Falls into the SWFE totals of 6-10" where it stays all snow, Best dynamics look to be north up in Northern Maine verbatim.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Trending nicely 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Falls into the SWFE totals of 6-10" where it stays all snow, Best dynamics look to be north up in Northern Maine verbatim.

That sounds realistic 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Trending nicely 

 

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's another rusty coat hanger here.

Lol

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

 

Lol

I meant for the canucks

im sure the maps looked really good 10 days ago

[dryslot]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

 

Lol

Its all about what area you reside in.

[RDRY]

NNE special.

[SnoSki14]

13 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

So is it that deep trough coming into California at the same time causing this to run so far west? The block up in Greenland is quite impressive with a pinwheeling 50/50. One would think this wouldn't be able to gain so much latitude, so early on. Or is the block just too early to have any effect on this particular system?

Strong MJO 7 passage and Nina forcing really enhances the WAR for the 3/4 system. 

The confluence due to the blocking tries to blunt it but it's not enough for most. 

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Falls into the SWFE totals of 6-10" where it stays all snow, Best dynamics look to be north up in Northern Maine verbatim.

Yeah I mean, wouldn’t say no to like 0.75” QPF as snow to add to the pack.  My guess is though the QPF is over done south of Canada… that front end comes through fast.

Thats one of those situations that looks ok but then the mesos start showing like 0.40-0.55” water instead of 0.60-0.90” or something before dry slot.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

So is it that deep trough coming into California at the same time causing this to run so far west? The block up in Greenland is quite impressive with a pinwheeling 50/50. One would think this wouldn't be able to gain so much latitude, so early on. Or is the block just too early to have any effect on this particular system?

The wave spacing is decidedly different from B.C. to NF across that latitude of southern Canada. The Euro positions everything, including the confluence aspect(s), some 500 mile E of the GFS ( just comparing those two...)

That difference is at convenience to either solution. The Euro allows the whole thing to end up in Michigan before it starts being forced E... The GFS differences don't allow that...and it ends up forced E sooner.

The Euro is seems to be forcibly trying to invent reasons to drive the La Nina spring/-PNA along.

One thing I'll point out regarding the Euro's recent history in a similar pattern - i.e., the one today... It had this 28th system originally one of the westward solutions early, and then collapsed it all the way to all but a southerly whiff at some point in the count-down. Not sure if that'll happen in this case ...  The southern stream position handling is one thing, but I noticed that aspect difference along southern Canada and I stopped waiting for new hours even.  F' it at that point.  It may be right but it's wholesale different than a lot of other guidance now. 

EPS outta be interesting...

[powderfreak]

Edit… guess I should’ve finished the run.  It does swing around some decent upslope to top off.  It ends up getting there, but I’d still think the front end under-performs with that look.