Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Actually this looks to try and shear out a bit last minute. 

Yeah it does the Tip crunch eastward....there is no doubt the confluence is stornger than it was a couple days ago but it's battling the further west shortwave....so it comes up west and then hits the brick wall and goes east....but where that happens matters a lot for us in terms of sensible wx.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Actually this looks to try and shear out a bit last minute. 

The stubborn primary insists are going about 50-100 miles too far north before it happens. Strictly at 5h though, it looked slightly better to me, while the precip maps still look like dung

[CoastalWx]

The southwest ass end of the PV actually squashes the s/w last minute. It was flying north until friday night. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The southwest ass end of the PV actually squashes the s/w last minute. It was flying north until friday night. 

Scooter streak north of CAR....NAO trying to push that south a bit.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Scooter streak north of CAR....NAO trying to push that south a bit.

Just something to go right for once.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it does the Tip crunch eastward....there is no doubt the confluence is stornger than it was a couple days ago but it's battling the further west shortwave....so it comes up west and then hits the brick wall and goes east....but where that happens matters a lot for us in terms of sensible wx.

From orbit.. this is a SWFE  ( I realize others have made that connection - all due street cred conferred) ...

The deeper S/W mechanical totality goes W, while the lower troposphere cold undercutting  prevents warm intrusion to the surface.  That's SWFE realization incarnate.  It just comes down to timing transitions. Some very intense cold lower blocking can make a SWFE be almost 90% or more snow, merely crusted over by some freezing drizzle. Like in some of those Dec events in 2008... Some others, less...you get 3" thumps followed by IP then cold rain, with a modest net gain of Plaster of Paris.  You know...technically, SWFE can be all rain... It's really anytime cold forces occlusion whilst S/W mechanics run NW.  But... we obviously don't give a ratz azz about those LOL

The temperature actually rises post the occlusion frontal passage.  You know the drill  -

Whether this system shows a more "cleanly" idealized SWFE, just those two primary leading parametric circumstances alone, make this a SWFE to me.   S/W travels NW; low levels effectively succeed in preventing WAA to penetrate to the surface.

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Scooter streak north of CAR....NAO trying to push that south a bit.

You could see that coming from a couple cycles ago. Confluence and NAO gonna press. 

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM is pretty similar to GFS....might be a smidge colder...really doesn't get the pellets north of the pike. But it does the same exact larger scale behavior of shunting this almost due east.

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh...  one thing I like about TT is the convenience to the fast comparison, "Prev. Run" button.  Bravo on that.  

But, looking at hr 90 on this 12z run of the GFS, and clicking said button some 10 times... any differences are really almost irrelevant.  If nothing else, that's some impressive continuity.

[Typhoon Tip]

Haha... has anyone noticed that nagging attempt at Norlan sort of IVT on the GFS runs. 

One thing I think is interesting about that phenomenon is that it's happened like ...3 times in history worth notoriety, yet has been modeled 3,000 times since the phenomenon was codified as a real thing. 

Or, maybe it happens a lot more frequently than we are aware?  perhaps just below the radar of any impact so no one notices...

[Spanks45]

CMC has a warm layer around 800 mb,  around 12z Saturday.. .otherwise the column is pretty chilly even down here. Hopefully it is right, it bodes well for those to our north.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM is pretty similar to GFS....might be a smidge colder...really doesn't get the pellets north of the pike. But it does the same exact larger scale behavior of shunting this almost due east.

Minnesota crunch ftw ...  maybe? 

God...I hate that we have to depend upon an index that I hate, in order to get a storm that I am beginning to hate ( just from dealing with this bullshit..), at a time of year that I have been perfectly honest about in the past, I borderline hate. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Haha... has anyone noticed that nagging attempt at Norlan sort of IVT on the GFS runs. 

One thing I think is interesting about that phenomenon is that it's happened like ...3 times in history worth notoriety, yet has been modeled 3,000 times since the phenomenon was codified as a real thing. 

Or, maybe it happens a lot more frequently than we are aware?  perhaps just below the radar of any impact so no one notices...

Most our IVTs are pretty mundane 1-3" type deals....we occasionally get a good one, though they've been kind of sparse in recent years after we got a decent number of them in the 2007-2014 period (2/22/07, 12/20/07, 12/20/08, 2/24/13, 1/18/14 all come to mind)

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, radiator said:

I'm thinking that you intended to write "Friday evening" instead of "Saturday evening" here:

 

 

Yes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Actually this looks to try and shear out a bit last minute. 

Not shocking.

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

From orbit.. this is a SWFE  ( I realize others have made that connection - all due street cred conferred) ...

The deeper S/W mechanical totality goes W, while the lower troposphere cold undercutting  prevents warm intrusion to the surface.  That's SWFE realization incarnate.  It just comes down to timing transitions. Some very intense cold lower blocking can make a SWFE be almost 90% or more snow, merely crusted over by some freezing drizzle. Like in some of those Dec events in 2008... Some others, less...you get 3" thumps followed by IP then cold rain, with a modest net gain of Plaster of Paris.  You know...technically, SWFE can be all rain... It's really anytime cold forces occlusion whilst S/W mechanics run NW.  But... we obviously don't give a ratz azz about those LOL

The temperature actually rises post the occlusion frontal passage.  You know the drill  -

Whether this system shows a more "cleanly" idealized SWFE, just those two primary leading parametric circumstances alone, make this a SWFE to me.   S/W travels NW; low levels effectively succeed in preventing WAA to penetrate to the surface.

Agree....SWFE. 

[SouthCoastMA]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most our IVTs are pretty mundane 1-3" type deals....we occasionally get a good one, though they've been kind of sparse in recent years after we got a decent number of them in the 2007-2014 period (2/22/07, 12/20/07, 12/20/08, 2/24/13, 1/18/14 all come to mind)

 I do remember one where we got around 7" on the Southcoast, but I feel like it was sometime in March 2013. I could be wrong though

[dryslot]

This will end up being a 6-10" deal where it stays all snow, Its morphed into an overunning event that goes thru the grinder once again similar to todays.

[Hoth]

7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

 I do remember one where we got around 7" on the Southcoast, but I feel like it was sometime in March 2013. I could be wrong though

You are correct.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

This will end up being a 6-10" deal where it stays all snow, Its morphed into an overunning event that goes thru the grinder once again similar to todays.

Exactly the range I used N of the pike and inland. Lol

[Typhoon Tip]

Actually... the GGEM's 500 mb evolution would argue less of a SWFE, because the larger core wind torpedo goes S of LI on this run. It's a trend over the prior that is subtle -

[ORH_wxman]

21 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

 I do remember one where we got around 7" on the Southcoast, but I feel like it was sometime in March 2013. I could be wrong though

Yes....night time event....Mar 21-22, 2013. Someone in the heart of that norlun got like 12" and it all fell in about 5 hours.

 

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes....night time event....Mar 21-22, 2013. Someone in the heart of that norlun got like 12" and it all fell in about 5 hours.

 

I recall now - I think it settled south of me (Acushnet at the time) right along 195 and got messenger pretty good as well. But I think the jack was in that Fairhaven/Mattapoisett/Marion/Wareham corridor. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

I recall now - I think it settled south of me right along 195 and got messenger pretty good as well. But I think the jack was in that Fairhaven/Mattapoisett/Marion corridor. 

I remember that. Bastards. 

[dryslot]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly the range I used N of the pike and inland. Lol

You have the right idea, Just the wrong model........lol

[weathafella]

Uncle similar to gfs/cmc.  A lot of folks panicked after NAM/RGEM/ICON…lol

[DJln491]

I can't make heads or tails of these models.  Any feel for conditions in White Mountains on Saturday?  Supposed to ski at Cannon.  gonna be periods of heavy snow?

[Kitz Craver]

17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Uncle similar to gfs/cmc.  A lot of folks panicked after NAM/RGEM/ICON…lol

Cmon, we are better than this…

[STILL N OF PIKE]

16 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

I can't make heads or tails of these models.  Any feel for conditions in White Mountains on Saturday?  Supposed to ski at Cannon.  gonna be periods of heavy snow?

Close call on northern area of goods

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Cmon, we are better than this…

Are we?  
 

In all seriousness, this looks pretty impactful for northern CT when looking at the globals. We’ll see if the hi res changes it’s tune if that continues to hold.