Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[40/70 Benchmark]

This one is a good read, I think. Prefer a tamer version of the GEM.

First Call:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/02/first-call-for-friday-winter-storm.html

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Agree Ray.

[CoastalWx]

So we think colder?

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So we think colder?

Can’t trust the euro these days. 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Can’t trust the euro these days. 

It’s lost so much from its hay day. 

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Can’t trust the euro these days. 

I don’t, but I don’t trust colder yet either. 

[CoastalWx]

6z gfs looked a tad colder vs 00z. I hope man. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

It’s sort of lower confidence when we toss the model we have used as the king for the entirety of the weather boards existence 

Is there a bias it has in this particular set up responsibile for it being N outlier 

[dryslot]

So which models are we using for this next one?   lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t, but I don’t trust colder yet either. 

Did you read my rationale?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

So which models are we using for this next one?   lol

GEM IMO....sans QPF.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If I'm wrong, it should become apparent pretty soon.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If I'm wrong, it should become apparent pretty soon.

Yea. I think today’s runs will reveal any trends. 

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If I'm wrong, it should become apparent pretty soon.

I wish you all the best, I think it lies somewhere in the middle of where everything is right now.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

So which models are we using for this next one?   lol

A sprinkle of our hopes And dreams unless euro matches them . I do think the euro moderates a tad south but I’m not sold on how significant.

we will obviously see either models follow euro or euro follow others or a compromise , so all that means to me is the next 2 days will be very fun to sort this out via model watching . I’m looking forward to see how this plays out and I at least like my latitude to hopefully keep things frozen.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

So which models are we using for this next one?   lol

The snowiest feels the best.

[mahk_webstah]

Gym didn’t sound too excited re qpf. .5-1 or so.  Also not excited about intensity.  Maybe a 5-10er up here if all goes well.

[dryslot]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

A sprinkle of our hopes And dreams unless euro matches them . I do think the euro moderates a tad south but I’m not sold on how significant.

we will obviously see either models follow euro or euro follow others or a compromise , so all that means to me is the next 2 days will be very fun to sort this out via model watching . I’m looking forward to see how this plays out and I at least like my latitude to hopefully keep things frozen.

It really depends if you can get the block to flex as once again you have opposing forces, I think we see some south ticks again with this one over the next few cycles.

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s sort of lower confidence when we toss the model we have used as the king for the entirety of the weather boards existence 

Is there a bias it has in this particular set up responsibile for it being N outlier 

For one it seems to have an extremely strong amplification bias at this lead time most times. Still major league status…but it’s lost its mojo from before its first upgrade there…it hasn’t been the same since that tweak…they messed it up, and haven’t corrected it since. In fact I think the upgrades since have made it even worse. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Gym didn’t sound too excited re qpf. .5-1 or so.  Also not excited about intensity.  Maybe a 5-10er up here if all goes well.

Planet Fitness?

[dryslot]

One thing i will say, The Euro has struggled this season on most all the events even into the mid term.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, dryslot said:

One thing i will say, The Euro has struggled this season on most all the events even into the mid term.

Absolutely. It’s had a very tough winter.

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Did you read my rationale?

I didn’t.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I didn’t.

Take a 45min dump and read it.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Take a 45min dump and read it.

Lmao.

 

I do agree with it though. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Take a 45min dump and read it.

I just did. I get the shearing part, but it won’t take much warmth aloft either. We’ll see. I hope colder, but I’ll need today’s runs to try and convince me. 

[Chris12WX]

31 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

No…. No no No.  I can’t with this winter.  I can’t do it.  Can’t F-ing do it.  
 

And I leave Thursday for a festival in AZ, watch  something happen this weekend.  

Biggie confirmed! Thanks!

[CoastalWx]

6z EPS is a bit cooler later this week. Come on, make me fucking sane and cool off.

[WinterWolf]

I think the block/confluence will come in a lil stronger as we close in and thus push this bitch south some.  

[SouthCoastMA]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

6z gfs looked a tad colder vs 00z. I hope man. 

Don't need much to get some good snows. would be nice for once if this trends slightly better.