Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Cmc would be awesome for SNE…too bad it’s the ole reliable canadian. 

The CMC seems to be pretty stable over the past couple of days, maybe it has the right idea. GFS is pretty similar...

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

The CMC seems to be pretty stable over the past couple of days, maybe it has the right idea. GFS is pretty similar...

What exactly does the Canadian show…

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What exactly does the Canadian show…

More fantasy snow.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

What exactly does the Canadian show…

Mostly an all snow event for you. Confluence overpowering a strong primary, keeps the cold locked in.

[Spanks45]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

What exactly does the Canadian show…

Couple inches of snow, followed by a ton of sleet....main low makes it to Ohio, second develops south of long island....

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Mostly an all snow event for you. Confluence overpowering a strong primary, keeps the cold locked in.

 

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

Couple inches of snow, followed by a ton of sleet....main low makes it to Ohio, second develops south of long island....

Ok..these are two different things lol..

[brooklynwx99]

I think it’s becoming clear that even though the primary SLP likely tracks well inland, the confluence in place may still lead to wintry impacts, as shown on the GFS and CMC

I would also not be surprised if it continued to tick stronger given the blocking in place, similar to what happened with the ongoing system

[Spanks45]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 

Ok..these are two different things lol..

Ha, yes they are...there is a warm layer around 800, sleet at the height...mostly snow for northern CT here it is like a few inches, sleet, then ends as some snow

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 

Ok..these are two different things lol..

You being further up 84 makes a difference, if cmc is right. 
 

[weathafella]

Cmc sucky as the model is was an all out snow blitz for the pike region and a lot of sne.

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

18z eps bumped north, gave much of SNE a 50% haircut. 

Plagiarism is not a good thing.

[Snowcrazed71]

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You being further up 84 makes a difference, if cmc is right. 
 

IDK... The way that CMC is starting at us.. like a demon octopus... It might just get us good...lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pretty confident that the Euro suite is over amped to some degree. That said, expect precip type issues/slot for much of the area. This is not a HECS. That window is later.

[WinterWolf]

34 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You being further up 84 makes a difference, if cmc is right. 
 

Ahh ok I see now what you meant. Thanks Luke. 

[weathafella]

Uncle is cold and seemingly snowy.

[wxsniss]

0z Euro is congrats Montreal... its northernmost run yet

Maybe this storm will be remembered for how the CMC scored an astonishing upset?

[weathafella]

Euro is furthest north, ukmet/cmc is an unholy alliance.   Gfs believe in or not is the middle ground.

[40/70 Benchmark]

EURO will sense the confluence probably starting today at 12z and begin to adjust.

[wxsniss]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Euro is furthest north, ukmet/cmc is an unholy alliance.   Gfs believe in or not is the middle ground.

...and fwiw, GFS has objectively been the most consistent for the past 4 runs

Euro has been steadily ticking north and I suspect overshot, perhaps over-amplified the primary that held on too long +/- underestimated the confluence on the 0z run 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EURO will sense the confluence probably starting today at 12z and begin to adjust.

I also expect the system to trend somewhat less impressive, as well. Amounts over 1' should few and far between, if at all.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

...and fwiw, GFS has objectively been the most consistent for the past 4 runs

Euro has been steadily ticking north and I suspect overshot, perhaps over-amplified the primary that held on too long +/- underestimated the confluence on the 0z run 

This.

[40/70 Benchmark]

EURO already trended weaker this run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't see a big diff from 12z thermally speaking...just gave QPF a haircut, which is what I was saying...that is an adjustment to the confluence. Probably mostly a 4-8"....maaaybe 6-10" deal.

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I also expect the system to trend somewhat less impressive, as well. Amounts over 1' should few and far between.

Agreed.  Can already see it happening to some degree. Wouldn’t surprise me to see the initial thump to be less over time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Agreed.  Can already see it happening to some degree.

I think this season produces a doozy.

This isn't it-

[ORH_wxman]

Euro went from the most suppressed model about 4-5 runs ago to the most amped. Lol. 
 

It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow given all of the other guidance trended south at 00z. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Euro went from the most suppressed model about 4-5 runs ago to the most amped. Lol. 
 

It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow given all of the other guidance trended south at 00z. 

Euro will cave...wow. This is like old times with you up for the Euro lol

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro will cave...wow. This is like old times with you up for the Euro lol

This feels like the most wintry spell in a year at least for our area.  Nice cold with durable but small pack, overcast, snow every few days.   It will be nice to see it last for a few weeks-not easy this late but certainly possible.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think  GEM (toss that QPF, though)/GFS blend is prudent right now....expect two trends this week.

1) Colder.

2) Less Impressive storm.

No way that SW maintains as much coherence as currently modeled on the EURO. That happens, I'll give up my newborn to George for adoption.

I don't think the GEM is awful in terms of its thermal field, but its overdoing the QPF.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think the GFS is underselling the WAR a bit, as both GEM and EURO are similarly stronger with it, so GFS is likely to adjust to a weaker storm once it resolves that error.