Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[ineedsnow]

18z GFS beefed up even more lol

[ineedsnow]

looks a bit colder highly doubt we get the 18 it shows here 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

18z GFS beefed up even more lol

I thought it cut back vs 12z

[ineedsnow]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

I thought it cut back vs 12z

guess it depends where you are

[HIPPYVALLEY]

8 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

meh for my area, nice SVT and north of ALY though, should cash nicely in up there

 

Matches pretty well with BOX map.

 

 

 

[George001]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I thought it cut back vs 12z

It did, gfs was more north

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

looks a bit colder highly doubt we get the 18 it shows here 

You could be good for 10" though.  Good location with elevation.

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I thought it cut back vs 12z

About the same here.

[codfishsnowman]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Let’s collapse a few of those cages around the saplings. 

How much otg roughly?

[Typhoon Tip]

Holy shit!   18z NAM FOUS over Logan

18073978031 10117 980936 45009799  .73" in 0C, -3C, -1C at 980, 900 and 800 mb levels respectively. 36kt sustained!!
24054977913 -8321 940438 41009796  .54" in 0C, -3C, -4C at 980, 900 and 800 mb levels respectively. 38kt sustained!!

The open tarmacs if that goes over to pure snow would get close to verifying.

I haven't seen the synoptic charts just yet. This may be confined to just the coast...but those numbers there illustrate an upper moderate/low end major event. 

[Damage In Tolland]

It beefed up inland a bit 

[Modfan2]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It beefed up inland a bit 

How is it down here

[tavwtby]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 

Matches pretty well with BOX map.

 

 

 

man, can I buy 60 miles! always amazed me just how different the weather can be in the northeast, only a few miles can determine a foot or 4" of snow, minus the big region wide KU events that get every in on the goods. Really noticed just how much when I moved to Winsted from Waterbury, avg like 30" more a year, and Norfolk probably gets a good 10" more than I, and I can walk there in about an hour or so... crazy

[weatherwiz]

FWIW, 18z NAM/GFS initialized and are WAYYYY high with dewpoints for this current time

[dendrite]

With wet ground/melting snow and variable mixing I wouldn’t stress too much over 2m temps and dews…think I’d be more worried about 925-950 Tw’s

[tavwtby]

ALY afternoon AFD suggested the 700 warm tongue gets as far north as the VT/MA border with mostly sleet, and ZR for my hood up to maybe PIT, I'll take pingers, I loathe ZR though

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

With wet ground/melting snow and variable mixing I wouldn’t stress too much over 2m temps and dews…think I’d be more worried about 925-950 Tw’s

Yup. As temp drops,dews up. Dews drop inn? Bulb stays at 30

 

[78Blizzard]

1 hour ago, BostonWX said:

Pivotal NAM clown with 6-6.5 at BOS

 

50 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Don't understand that, as it has 10" for me and I'm SW of BOS by about 12 miles.  The Sat PM stuff is about as much as the initial thump here.

Yet the 18z GEFS has 14" for BOS and 5" here.  This stuff is laughable.

[tamarack]

P&C for my area currently is 6-12; the issue here is a sharp qpf cutoff as temps should be fine. The 90/50/10% totals for Farmington are 5/9/17, a wide span for about 12 hours before first flakes.  However, just 65 miles north in Jackman those numbers are zero/3/7.  Would only take a relatively small wiggle to create a bust - in either direction.  I'm glad I worked with trees, as they tend not to move around as much as snowfall bands.

[Ginx snewx]

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You just picture him in a steady state of decline, in a dimly lit room sweating profusely though his Starter pullover Bruins jacket, surrounded by empty 40s.....just hammering away on a chalkboard the length of the room lol

Glasses all crooked, discarded McDonald's bags everywhere, erasers down to the paper on the felt.

[moneypitmike]

Easy forecast for one WFO.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Glasses all crooked, discarded McDonald's bags everywhere, erasers down to the paper on the felt.

Trying to calculate BDL CAPE on a paper skew-t by filling in the area with colored pencils

[FXWX]

As we enter the Nowcast time frame, the SPC Meso Analysis page shows a very potent / dynamic situation evolving & spreading eastward from OH on across northern PA and western/southern NY;  The 700 & 850 fronto & advection layout is impressive; big time omega profile... other than what appears to be somewhat of less than perfect lift through the main DGZ over parts of interior SNE and southern VT/NH, it's just a matter of where the taint occurs; but there is certainly significant room for a real thump in places...  

[tavwtby]

apparently snowing over head here, nothing falling yet, 38/20, wetbulb around 28...

[MuddyWx]

Tight gradient is on my fanny. BOX has me just into 6 inches but not sure if I buy it. Probably 3-4” but gradient will be right there

[wxsniss]

Deamplifying shortwaves + lack of antecedent cold air... not our first rodeo this winter... the higher snowfall vendor maps are laughable.

Still think we see a healthy thump ~midnight-5am that amounts to 2-4 inches in Boston metro area. 

This sounding is off the 3k NAM at 4am in metrowest... it's a narrow DGZ and we have to overcome some dry air in the hours before, but still should see good rates for several hours.

Not much room for surprises. Best of a fleeting CCB will be northeast MA into coastal ME... ie., doubt it adds much for mby.

If anything, really poor BL temps (yes we wetbulb but how much) may shave accumulations within ~10 miles of coast even more.

I think Box map may bust in some areas... I'm skeptical areas inside 495 in northeast MA get to 8-12".

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Deamplifying shortwaves + lack of antecedent cold air... not our first rodeo this winter... the higher snowfall vendor maps are laughable.

Still think we see a healthy thump ~midnight-5am that amounts to 2-4 inches in Boston metro area. 

This sounding is off the 3k NAM at 4am in metrowest... it's a narrow DGZ and we have to overcome some dry air in the hours before, but still should see good rates for several hours.

Not much room for surprises. Best of a fleeting CCB will be northeast MA into coastal ME... ie., doubt it adds much for mby.

If anything, really poor BL temps (yes we wetbulb but how much) may shave accumulations within ~10 miles of coast even more.

I think Box map may bust in some areas... I'm skeptical areas inside 495 in northeast MA get to 8-12".

Agree 

[Kitz Craver]

Enough with the wobbles and waffles, model noise mostly…. For SCCTATT My weenie says, 2” of front end, a quick transition to sleet and eventually a cold rain for the duration. A net loss. Can anyone convince me otherwise?

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Deamplifying shortwaves + lack of antecedent cold air... not our first rodeo this winter... the higher snowfall vendor maps are laughable.

Still think we see a healthy thump ~midnight-5am that amounts to 2-4 inches in Boston metro area. 

This sounding is off the 3k NAM at 4am in metrowest... it's a narrow DGZ and we have to overcome some dry air in the hours before, but still should see good rates for several hours.

Not much room for surprises. Best of a fleeting CCB will be northeast MA into coastal ME... ie., doubt it adds much for mby.

If anything, really poor BL temps (yes we wetbulb but how much) may shave accumulations within ~10 miles of coast even more.

I think Box map may bust in some areas... I'm skeptical areas inside 495 in northeast MA get to 8-12".

Yeah I’m not biting on any positive busts here. My guess is 2-3” front end here before the sleet and then we add another inch or two of crapola. 

But I’ll be keeping an eye on it tonight. If sleet holds off until like 9-10z, then we might pull off 4-6” on the front end  

 

[78Blizzard]

We have often said that we need to nowcast certain systems. IMO this will be an epic nowcast system, especially with the tight gradient.  Plenty of bust potential, up or down.