Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Classic SWFE with the DGZ way up high. If only we actually had some nice low level arctic air then the baking powder would accumulate way easier. This year has been putrid for lowest levels. Even in events where 925 is like -5 or -6, I’ve had several times where it translates to 33F here when probably at least half the time or even more we’d be inverted and even colder at the sfc…not this season though. 

I think it's really bitten us this last week. We've really struggled to get the snowfall forecast in the right ballpark around warning criteria. 

[HinghamBoss]

Just catching up.  Not the trends I was hoping for.  Time to close the shades here?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

With all the complaining in the thread, Boston has a chance to reach average after this month.

It’s an extremely low chance unless you got hit by a billy club 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, HinghamBoss said:

Just catching up.  Not the trends I was hoping for.  Time to close the shades here?

Probably watch Bird box and act accordingly 

[ma blizzard]

3”-5” of crud with about 1” of QPF? At least the glacier will have staying power

[ORH_wxman]

Trend so far at 12z seems like to try and push the secondary E or even ESE a little quicker once it reaches a position near E LI to islands. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Trend so far at 12z seems like to try and push the secondary E or even ESE a little quicker once it reaches a position near E LI to islands. 

What has run 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What has run 

Mesos up through rgem. 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Mesos up through rgem. 

Boy low confidence in model output by NWS so close in. Huge disparity in qpf alone. Always interesting when AGEO flow is NNE when LP straddles the coast of NE

 

[wxmanmitch]

What a nail biter this is going to be IMBY. Could very well be one of those cases where the west slope out by Prospect Mountain in Woodford goes to sleet, but I stay snow here on the upper echelons of the east slope. Latest mesos are looking a little colder though.

Going to be interesting to watch the dual pol radar overnight to see if that sleet line makes it over the top of the spine and into my hood.

[dryslot]

After looking, I'm thinking if the mesos are right, There will be a 6hr or so window of some 1-2"/hr rates at the height of this especially over SW ME into SNH it would seem, Winds are going to be quite gusty as well so probably looking at some power outages too with this heavy snow,

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Trend so far at 12z seems like to try and push the secondary E or even ESE a little quicker once it reaches a position near E LI to islands. 

GFS'll be interesting in that detail...

...I noticed it was inching closer and stronger across the last several cycles - minuscule amounts, but a dependable 'stolid' (won't be deterred) trend.  

It's almost a comedic underpinning to this that only a nerd would understand ( LOL )... the GFS is just getting fought by all guidance for any gesture it dare put forward at all - wow

I almost want it to verify just because it's being targeted for abuse like a red headed step child at a 'how to f-up a kids life' convention

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Boy low confidence in model output by NWS so close in. Huge disparity in qpf alone. Always interesting when AGEO flow is NNE when LP straddles the coast of NE

 

Normally I’d like seeing things collapsing SE near the islands but the problem is the midlevel centers get initially too far north so we can’t really crush +SN for 6 hours like we normally might. We’re getting hammered by an easterly 850 flow while we’re dryslotted aloft…maybe midlevels collapse faster as we get closer….but we’d need it to really take advantage. 
 

Still thinking 3-4” of crud here mostly from the thump. 

[Cold Miser]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

With all the complaining in the thread, Boston has a chance to reach average after this month.

We have the chance to go to war with Russia after this month as well. 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Cold Miser said:

We have the chance to go to war with Russia after this month as well. 

Either way we nuke our snowpack?

[Cold Miser]

If someone can post the most obscure, low budget model that shows the most southern solution with the most snow, just for laughs it would be most appreciated, and greatly boost my hopes.

Thanks in advance.  

[forkyfork]

soundings are garbo for snow growth. take those ratios down down down 

[forkyfork]

lol

[J Paul Gordon]

It looks like we won't have to cancel my grandson's first birthday party in Southbridge. We're going to reschedule for 2 PM. They're still calling for 8"+ here in Clinton, but I figure the reality will be much lower. (Maybe 1-3 in Southbridge; 3-5 max in Clinton?)

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

soundings are garbo for snow growth. take those ratios down down down 

I’ve pretty much only seen baking powder this winter. 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

If someone can post the most obscure, low budget model that shows the most southern solution with the most snow, just for laughs it would be most appreciated, and greatly boost my hopes.

Thanks in advance.  

I’m sure someone has the FV3 to post. Prob gives you warning criteria. 

[wx2fish]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m sure someone has the FV3 to post. Prob gives you warning criteria. 

 

 

[Cold Miser]

3 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

 

 

I will have a better day.
Thanks again.

[dryslot]

12z GFS came a couple tics north of 06z, lol

[weatherwiz]

If I got anything close to that in Springfield I will go the entire summer without making a severe thread

[ORH_wxman]

Stubborn GFS on that CCB. Still not buying it. 
 

 

[jbenedet]

9 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

 

 

Trash. Those number in BOS are 

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, Cold Miser said:

lol.  Who is this guy?

that's who

[MuddyWx]

GFS just gonna keep ticking north

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z GFS came a couple tics north of 06z, lol

lol those 18z temps.

We are already at/above at 15z