Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

bummed you're final map lowered me to 3-6.  Good luck on the call (even though I hope it's wrong.  )

 

I wish I had spent more time at Pit2 this winter.  Even with an incredibly slow start, they managed a relatively decent second half  At least in relatino to the non-winter inf SNE.

Westborough? Should be closer to high end of that. 

[Kitz Craver]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yep. Wife soar from C section,  so I'm doing the baby most nights. 

I remember those days vividly… My son was 11.7 out of the bread basket, obviously a C section. Lol

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I remember those days vividly… My son was 11.7 out of the bread basket, obviously a C section. Lol

Holy shit

[Kitz Craver]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Holy shit

Yeah, he’s 12 now… bout 6ft, 175, size 11.5 sneaker. Big dude, lol

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I remember those days vividly… My son was 11.7 out of the bread basket, obviously a C section. Lol

damn I thought ours was big at 10.4 lol

[UnitedWx]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

damn I thought ours was big at 10.4 lol

Butterball turkey LOL! I was tiny... 4lbs 8oz.    26.5 fake degrees here

[mahk_webstah]

5 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Euro was a carbon copy of 12z w track but another QPF cut as ray was warning  . Annoying . MSLP was the same or even 1mb Lower at 18z sat 

Jeff also warned of such.  As did Legro.

[klw]

BTV AFD this morning

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Snow: Overall, widespread totals of 6-14" are expected with the
lowest amounts occurring along the Canadian border, and highest
amounts along the southeast facing slopes of the southern Greens and
Adirondacks. High snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr are expected across the
region from midnight through 10 AM Saturday, and areas of blowing
snow are likely along the western slopes of the Greens as well.
While model QPF amounts have come up by a tenth to quarter inch, our
forecast snow amounts were adjusted only slightly upward as
uncertainty continues in regard to snow-to-liquid ratios given the
height of the DGZ and strong vertical wind shear below it. This will
likely contribute to snow crystal fragmentation during the first
half of the event tonight, where we`ve kept ratios closer to 10:1.
As upper low migrates overhead and the low-level jet weakens, higher
snow ratios should be observed on Saturday, though the overall
intensity of snowfall will be weakening.

[ORH_wxman]

Nice to see 06z guidance cool a touch. Hoping that we can pull a nice front ender here. 

[Modfan2]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice to see 06z guidance cool a touch. Hoping that we can pull a nice front ender here. 

Drove from Franklin Ma home yesterday and noticeable lack of snow until Ingot back to the CT/RI line on Rt 6; yesterdays rain wash it all away?

[NorEastermass128]

WWA up for 1-6”. BOX stopped caring too. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Modfan2 said:

Drove from Franklin Ma home yesterday and noticeable lack of snow until Ingot back to the CT/RI line on Rt 6; yesterdays rain wash it all away?

Probably. I still have coverage in my yard but a lot of sun torched areas got melted out. 

[subdude]

35 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Yeah, he’s 12 now… bout 6ft, 175, size 11.5 sneaker. Big dude, lol

Bill Belichick has entered the chat. 

[Hoth]

41 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Yeah, he’s 12 now… bout 6ft, 175, size 11.5 sneaker. Big dude, lol

Lol, I bet your grocery bill is brutal.

[jbenedet]

All guidance too cold this morning.

NAM best,

EURO next

GFS worst

 

[Kitz Craver]

12 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Lol, I bet your grocery bill is brutal.

Dude…

[Typhoon Tip]

NAM FOUS 06z was colder, period.

Logan with -0C isothermic all the way, with only one interval at +1 in the lowest level through the event.   

Also, it's 62" liq equiv, with ENE wind at sustained 34 kts at 980s mb above the surface. 

That sounds pretty darn close to a blizzard like arena - but obviously we know better with the frothing open sea delivering that "CCB"

Which by the way, ENE at that wind sustained over several hours, and low < 990 going underneath is a CCB. 

Not sure if there's still contention on this idea ... but if there is, the NAM's 06z looks darn CCBish for what it's worth. 

Haven't seen any posts since 7 last night so I have no idea if all this hasn't already been demolished through the interpretation net - haha....   funny feeling it has

 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

There were some spots in metro west that got 8-9 inches in 2 hours during the end of that. At the time, I knew it was an awesome storm, but I definitely appreciate those types of storms a lot more as I get older. Just awesome display of power from mother nature in that one in many different forms. 

This isn't an analog for that event - beyond the fact that they both have low pressure producing winter storm conditions on the map...  I mean, not that anyone is saying it is, here.... I'm just gathering cognizance for the morning. Not sure what planet I'm on just yet...

But I do know that on Earth, that system was unique and different than this.   just sayn'

That storm brought 6.5" to Acton, ma in one hour during the 4 hours of the total event.  We ended close to 15"   There were to concentric bands ...probably separated by a gravity wave.. As each one passed over, vis went down to feet.  12/9/05 was 2nd time I ever saw 6+" in one hour, the first time was 12/23/97.  

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6z euro I assume was not better 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

This isn't an analog for that event - beyond the fact that they both have low pressure producing winter storm conditions on the map...  I mean, not that anyone is saying it is, here.... I'm just gathering cognizance for the morning. Not sure what planet I'm on just yet...

But I do know that on Earth, that system was unique and different than this.   just sayn'

That storm brought 6.5" to Acton, ma in one hour during the 4 hours of the total event.  We ended close to 15"   There were to concentric bands ...probably separated by a gravity wave.. As each one passed over, vis went down to feet.  12/9/05 was 2nd time I ever saw 6+" in one hour, the first time was 12/23/97.  

 

Yeah the vort and dynamics in this one aren’t even close to that ‘05 storm. I’m actually expecting any CCB in this one mostly to be offshore or maybe far northeast areas. 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

6z euro I assume was not better 

Looked a little better to me. 

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

6z euro I assume was not better 

A lot less QPF than the GFS continues to be the theme... though Euro looked like it might have attempted a CCB better in eastern areas.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looked a little better to me. 

Looked like it tried to CCB back into eastern MA better than 00z.

 

[dryslot]

6-10" and call it a day.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Looked like it tried to CCB back into eastern MA better than 00z.

 

Yea it did. Front end looked a touched better too though very similar. 
 

Im still assuming the CCB is mostly a fraud. It will only matter if it’s truly heavy stuff. 

[CoastalWx]

Not a fan of that banded look on the QPF. 

[dryslot]

Nope.

[weatherwiz]

This is going to be brutally ugly I think. I'd still be extremely skeptical with these QPF outputs, especially on such a widespread level.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not a fan of that banded look on the QPF. 

I def wouldn’t be forecasting much accumulation after the initial thump. If mesos start honking today, maybe we consider it, but I’m going to assume QPF is way overdone in the CCB portion of the system. I might feel ok about it in parts of far S ME or something. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Gyx seems to be buying CCB